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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Precip type is still a concern for my area but significant amounts of ice and snow are looking posable.  The NBM is impressive for being this far out.

1644019200-y6C88KHZGyE.png

GHD-1 repeat?

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I don't like how far south the EPS is, but it's still very early.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

0z GEFS...

image.png

 

 

image.png

Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

GHD-1 repeat?

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

Yeah, the models haven't even decided on how many waves, cold air intrusion etc.  Lot's of bouncing to do.  Multiple pieces of energy.  Cold fronts.  Long way to go before a clearer picture happens.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

LOT's take...assessing notable colder trends over N IL and setting up quite the thermal boundary across the region...

 

Thought this was an interesting note from LOT

 

The large ridge of high pressure lingering along the
eastern U.S. combined with the next arctic high building south
into the northern Plains narrows the corridor considerably for
where this storm system is going to move.
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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Almost scares me how much the GEFS likes SEMI.

Let's not over-sell this. Iirc, the unique thing with GHD-1 is how potent the Shortwave was (well forecast far in advance) as it trekked across the SW CONUS before it even made it's turn northeast. That was a beastly shortwave. I don't think we have such with this that would cause LOT to issue a Blizzard Watch days and days in advance like they did back then. I think what we have attm, is the usual model bias of painting everything "maxed out" leaving the usual disappointment as we get inside d5 and things weaken substantially as they did for SMI back at New Years. 

I’m not saying we will see a large scale blizzard but more so a widespread snow shield.  There will be the very cold temps and winds at play which will most likely aid in snow production and blowing snow.  I wouldn’t discount the models intensifying the second piece along the frontal boundary.  The flow aloft seems to be favorable for this to happen.  We don’t have a massive spike in the AO or NAO or even a big dip in the EPO that could wreck the whole set up.  I feel pretty good at this range for our region.

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27 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I agree it is best to hold off on the oversell. I still do not completely buy into this. It will change many times between now and Monday. 

I should have been more clear in my comment when referring to GHD-1

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I just want enough snow to ride my snowmobile. I had to fix the oil tank this year, remove steering column, it took all day because my Polaris XC SP 600 oil tank design is garbage. I put in all that work, I just want to ride it and see this hit SE Wisconsin hard. I don't care if it's powder or wet and heavy, powder is great for snowboarding and wet and heavy is great for snowmobiling. It has just been horrible dealing with this cold and not having much snow, it's like this could be an amazing Winter if it snowed early and we had a huge base, then all this cold to keep it around,

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The thing that I like about this storm is that it will be dealing w/ a lot of cold air coming in to it, and especially, after the storm. It gets brutal. But, for now, I can see this as an all out snowstorm for many, w/ very limited mixing. We shall see, but that is my intake on this situation this far out. Happy tracking folks!

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Of course many more changes to come but I really like that the upper air soundings injested into the 12Z run pretty much same as 06Z (no upper air) a good sign that rarely happens this far out.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

20 miles separates me from 12 inches of snow.  This is going to be one I'm not going to follow every run.  I'll check again this weekend and see how it's going...(sarcasm)

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I would love to have the initial overrunning shown by the Euro/GFS, but then get the final piece of energy to tilt a bit negative and amp up, rather than lazily pull east like it's doing now.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Yeah, I'm not getting too excited yet.  GFS shows this moving in late Tuesday night, so we've got a ways to go.  

 

And we've already seen how drastic things can change in just 24 hours this far out. One nice thing is the snow shield is pretty wide, so hopefully we get something in the end. 

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The Canadian is still more suppressed than the GFS/Euro, but it's gradually shifting back nw.

image.thumb.png.7aff6c280497a9a7e31f9220ba0fa7da.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The ensembles are still ugly.  It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The ensembles are still ugly.  It's very possible Iowa gets nothing out of this even as the op runs look good.

It could even happen over here as well if they keep pressing the frontal boundary farther south.  I've seen similar trends int he GEFS from a system this year where the GFS op runs had a strong SLP but it ended up being a sheared out wave.  That's what most of the GEFS members are showing.

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro coming in colder and showing KC starting out as all snow into STL...lets see where this goes...

Yep, a stronger initial northern stream wave shoves the baroclinic zone farther south.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's going to be like this through the weekend.  The northern stream will press a bit more or a bit less each run, and how far south it presses will have a big impact for our region.  Iowa/Wisconsin may get clobbered, or it could be Missouri/Illinois.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ooh, this run is showing what I posted about earlier.  The final piece of energy goes neutral if not a bit negative, so it amps and wraps up much better.  This would be ideal.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro...we have seen the Euro tease us in the past this season and then turned out to be a sheared out wave...looks great but still need to keep your emotions in check.

2.png

Wow that would be perfect.  Lets just lock this in and be done with it lol

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Perhaps the thread title should include "overrunning" in addition to "cutter".  Plenty of snow will fall well ahead of the cutter due to gulf moisture being thrown up and over the front.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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  • Tom changed the title to 2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)
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