2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[OmahaSnowFan]

oops forgot a couple....

[CentralNebWeather]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Perhaps the thread title should include "overrunning" in addition to "cutter".  Plenty of snow will fall well ahead of the cutter due to gulf moisture being thrown up and over the front.

Very good point

[Clinton]

The Euro Control has done gone mad.  This is a 10:! map

[Clinton]

12z EPS

[Hawkeye]

There is a very real danger the battle zone gets suppressed south and east of Iowa.  We can't get too excited, yet.

[BMT]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The danger for Iowa is certainly a more suppressed track.  We can't get too excited, yet.

Agree - i don't like the look of the ensembles, for any model at this point.  

[tStacsh]

I think icing may be a serious risk from this.  We've had several ice storms the last 5 years occur in February.  Schools were shut down for a week in early February 2019.  I remember vividly because we had our twin boys that week.  

[FV-Mike]

Even with the inevitable shifts  I think KC is looking good

[gabel23]

This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 

The timing and battle between the arctic air and the warm  surge will decide everything.  Long ways to go to iron anything out yet.  I will say, seeing air that cold behind this system gives a lot of people hope.  Might end up bigger than we think.  Of course might end up weaker and suppressed as well.  Either way, this is fun.  

[hlcater]

I’m 80% confident this is a KC-DTW special. Iowa likely sees snow, but not a lot.

[snowstorm83]

5 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This has suppression written all over it. Way early in the game but I see this thing missing my area to the south and east. I have been missed all year and I would expect that trend to continue. I just hope we can all cash in with at least a little snow! 

Yeah I feel like this will definitely morph into a dusting here. I can't remember any time the ensembles were wrong and shifted towards the OP runs. I might start getting excited if GFS and Euro are still looking like this by Sunday or Monday. 

[GDR]

32 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I’m 80% confident this is a KC-DTW special. Iowa likely sees snow, but not a lot.

I bet Iowa doesn’t see more than 4 inches. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets Suppressed out of Iowa!

[someweatherdude]

Shhh.  I'm not really here.  But a quick question.  Which LR model handled the New Years Day storm the best?  

[tStacsh]

GRR take so far.  Heavy precip likely.  Trends snow, but mixing certainly possible

 

- Heavier precipitation possible for the middle of next week Gulf moisture with PWATS up over an inch lift up through the MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley on Wednesday. At the same time a strengthening frontal zone will be overhead here in MI with this moist airmass overrunning it leading to heavier precipitation. Trends support more in the way of snow at this time...but a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain is becoming more likely as the surface wave is shown to track through the CWA by multiple models. There is still a lot of uncertainty how this system will evolve but given the anomalous moisture lifting up out of the Gulf and the shown strength of the front along with one or more waves shown to track along the frontal zone...fairly high confidence in heavier QPF exists.

[james1976]

Yikes, the ensembles are awful for Iowa. Not even close to the op's. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, BMT said:

Agree - i don't like the look of the ensembles, for any model at this point.  

Lots of duds in the ensembles for sure. Not even just placement, but quite a few with weak sauce

[FV-Mike]

Nothing crazy but a decent write up by LOT

Then the active stretch could kick off Tuesday and
continue through at least Thursday. Could see some light rain
ahead of and along cold front Tuesday with highs into the 40s for
parts of area, followed by timing uncertainty for next surge of
moisture. We`re continuing to advertise PoPs up into the likely
range for Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Confidence is
higher than average confidence in precip occurrence (also noted
sizable positive 5-day precip anomalies on the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles) during multiple periods, though it`s possible that
pattern evolution could slow wintry precip Tuesday night as shown
on ECMWF and a good chunk of its ensembles.

Conceptually, the pattern at the surface with strong Arctic high
and cold air damming from north-northwest, and aloft with
elevated warm front possibly lingering or moving back north into
portions of the area sometime Wednesday into Thursday, introduces
a distinct threat for a wintry mix zone and then snow north of
this (which can be seen on NBM probability of precip types).
Moisture availability makes the threat higher than average for
potentially significant snow (sleet) and ice accumulations
occurring within the CWA, amidst brisk northerly winds. We would
caution not to get too invested in operational model run outputs
given the multitude of plausible scenarios how this could play
out.

 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Yikes, the ensembles are awful for Iowa. Not even close to the op's. 

Not gonna like the 18Z GFS.  Further south.    This thing is so far out.  No chance any of these models will be correct right now.  It's basically a big frontal boundary.  Moist, but 2 waves.  I don't like that look.  Doesn't bode well for a strong storm.  But plenty of precip could still fall.  

[Tony]

18Z gfs drops about 27" in Chicago...heck of a run

[bud2380]

18z GFS - expect more flip flopping

 

[East Dubzz]

Still a nice looking storm there. Obviously a lot is going to change, so just have to hope there are models that stay further north too and it doesn't just completely go south.

[GDR]

That’s a big shift in iowa

[Hawkeye]

I totally expect to see some suppressed runs over the next couple days at least.  Hopefully, for us Iowans, it won't end up suppressed.  If it does, it does.  Then, folks to the south and east will cash in.

[The Snowman]

Can't share graphics but a look at the 12z ECMWF ENS clusters shows:

• 50% of members with a low in western TN/KY at Hour 168
• 37% of members with absolutely no storm and an incredibly suffocating Canadian high pressure
• 11% of members with a low on the IA/MO/IL border nexus at Hour 168

I share concerns about the Arctic high ending up being too strong; it's happened at least once this winter where a Canadian HP's influence was underestimated by models and only became apparent as the event was happening.

[Niko]

[centralweather44]

34 minutes ago, Niko said:

Only in our dreams would this verify. After the year we have had I can only imagine we will be disappointed come this weekend when models show what will actually verify  

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

18z GFS - expect more flip flopping

 

Jan 1967 copy storm. That was a moisture bomb!

[Hawkeye]

The GFS has made big jumps south today.  The northern stream needs to ease up or Iowa will get shut out.

[bud2380]

No thanks GFS

[Clinton]

0z GFS further south with front puts down big snow for the KC.

[GDR]

Couple more runs and this will be south of KC wow!!

[GDR]

[GDR]

The gefs ensembles looks better in iowa

[Hawkeye]

The GDPS and UK have solid snow up to Cedar Rapids.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

killer dry air for here

[Clinton]

0z GEFS ensembles are coming around.  KC, Chicago, and southern Michigan look good as of now.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS ensembles are coming around.  KC, Chicago, and southern Michigan look good as of now.

This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place.  I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one.  There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS....

[Tom]

0z Euro south and suppressed....back to a long duration sheared event....

 

[hlcater]

Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here.

[snowstorm83]

Yikes even KC barely gets 6" on the Euro

[Tom]

Still lots of time to see what happens with the energy coming out of the SW and how it interacts with the baro zone.  The 0z Euro run tonight is suspicious as to how far east it develops the storm.  Bad run for those north of I-80.  Next run could end up going back to a wound up storm.  Let the model watching continue....

@jaster220 @Niko

[Tom]

0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub...

 

[Tom]

0z GEPS...I like the trend....its trying to develop a formidable SLP riding up the OHV...waiting for precip maps to load...

[Tom]

0z GEPS...pretty juiced...favoring eastern Sub...

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS back N

[GDR]

Big difference in Iowa from previous GFS run

[Grizzcoat]

Still snowing heavily for eastern peeps