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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom
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That's a huge shift for an ensemble basically 5 days out. Would feel better if it was a fresh upper air sounding run... 00/12Z. Time will tell if it's a farce or the 00z from last night was 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place.  I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one.  There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS....

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We seem to be in a great spot, whether the models shift north or south we stay in warning level snow band.  It's good to have a storm produce such a expansive snow shield.

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NWS Hastings morning disco not exactly excited about a storm.  I will say they have been wrong many times before over the years.  We'll see what happens.

 

"However, the EPS indicates that the deterministic/operational ECMWF may be overdoing snow chances/amounts. At this point, the NBM chance category pops seem reasonable and snowfall amounts if we do see snow will likely be light given its a quick moving open wave."

 

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From GRR:   Looks like a mainly snow event.  Track and accumulations wayyyy to far out to determine.  How strong with that Arctic High be?   Seems like it's pretty strong.  Euro almost misses CMI completely.  This thing could end up south of Michigan.  

- Impactful Snow Possible Wed/Thur - Significant medium range guidance discrepancies are noted in terms of evolution of the system for midweek. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. In spite of significant medium range guidance differences confidence is fairly high in potential for significant snow as this system will have abundant moisture to work with. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions). It is also noted that the 00Z deterministic ECMWF has now trended significantly colder/further south with the Thursday system. The coldest airmass of the season will arrive by Friday as h8 temps plummet to around -20 to -22 C. 

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MKE being cautious and acknowledging all possibilities!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote
Attention then turns to a storm system that appears increasingly
likely to affect portions of the Midwest sometime in the Tuesday
night to Thursday night timeframe. Deterministic guidance has
seemingly shifted south over the last 24-36 hours, but a close
look at the respective ensemble members gives a clear picture of
the significant uncertainty at this distance. Solutions include a
swath of heavy snow north of the area, south of the area, across
the area, or not at all! Bottom line, this is definitely a time
period to keep an eye on, but given that we`re still the better
part of 5-6 days out, it would be unwise to latch onto any
particular details at this juncture.

 

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Nothing ground-breaking here, but a good discussion from the DVN:

 

Quote
Larger changes in the synoptic pattern will take place early next
week as a shortwave digging into the Pacific northwest carves a deep
trough across the western third of the US into the middle of next
week. Models are in good agreement with a progressive trough as this
time. However models do show the potential for a northern and
southern branch to the jet stream further complicating the forecast.

Models show a strong, coupled northern and southern  jet streaks
moving into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday which produces strong
lee side cyclogenesis in the High Plains of West Texas. At the same
time, a strong, progressive cold front will move across the area on
Tuesday.

This surface low shifts eastward with time with models disagreeing
on the track. The Canadian has a farther northward track of the low
into Missouri then Central Illinois while the GFS and ECWMF are
farther to the south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
precipitation type with this storm system will be highly dependent
on the track of the system and the amount and depth of cold air in
place. Additionally, strong Canadian high pressure build into the
Plains will produce a strong pressure gradient across the area with
likely windy conditions.

There remains a loft of uncertainty with this storm system as
differences between models would impact the strength, amount of
moisture, and cold air in place with this system. Changes to the
forecast of this storm system will continue to occur over the coming
days so stay tuned.

 

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Just now, mlgamer said:

LOL...12z GFS sets up the standard I-70 screw job! 🤣🤣🤣

I'll see where things stand Tuesday. I've seen this show too many times already.

It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol

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2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol

12z GFS is a destructive storm here, lots of ice and 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on top.  Lets hope for a colder solution next time.

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GEFS pretty much carbon copy of 06Z, a little W in IA. Good sign for C.IA.

Actually I go the other way with strength of H. The WAA on Monday will dictate more than most think. I understand cold air wins the battle eventually, but the WAA can slow it.

Being on the North end of these systems is not bad as it's a good snow event or nothing. Not like the ice potential down South. That stuff blows. 🤮

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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GDPS is south and narrow.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is stronger with the lead northern wave, so the snow is pushed well south of the 00z.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12Z GEFS

1643965200-RVIlVgHEFEE.png

1643943600-Po4L9eCmEus.png

While the Op GFS was a bit N for mby, I like the look of the GEFS yet again for SEMI. Seems like suddenly, this is more of a W to E mover, and not such a "cutter"

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub...

2.png

 

1.png

I think this system legit likes S/SEMI.

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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  • Tom changed the title to 2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)
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