2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[GDR]

GEFS with a big shift north Chicago peeps look to be golden

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

That's a huge shift for an ensemble basically 5 days out. Would feel better if it was a fresh upper air sounding run... 00/12Z. Time will tell if it's a farce or the 00z from last night was 

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

This is the one we have been waiting for bud...I got a good feeling about this one...the long duration of this set which is being modeled is great to see along with plenty of arctic air in place.  I'm hopeful that you and your comrades down there will score big with this one.  There are some big hits showing up on the GEFS....

We seem to be in a great spot, whether the models shift north or south we stay in warning level snow band.  It's good to have a storm produce such a expansive snow shield.

[Sciascia]

42 minutes ago, GDR said:

Clifford the (potential) Big Dog!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco not exactly excited about a storm.  I will say they have been wrong many times before over the years.  We'll see what happens.

 

"However, the EPS indicates that the deterministic/operational ECMWF may be overdoing snow chances/amounts. At this point, the NBM chance category pops seem reasonable and snowfall amounts if we do see snow will likely be light given its a quick moving open wave."

 

[Clinton]

EAX is gaining some confidence with this storm, but still cautious which is smart for KC.

[tStacsh]

From GRR:   Looks like a mainly snow event.  Track and accumulations wayyyy to far out to determine.  How strong with that Arctic High be?   Seems like it's pretty strong.  Euro almost misses CMI completely.  This thing could end up south of Michigan.  

- Impactful Snow Possible Wed/Thur - Significant medium range guidance discrepancies are noted in terms of evolution of the system for midweek. However what seems more certain is that this system will have ample gulf moisture to work with and that a strong baroclinic zone will setup across the lower Great Lakes to Ohio Valley regions. In spite of significant medium range guidance differences confidence is fairly high in potential for significant snow as this system will have abundant moisture to work with. My gut feel is that the strong high pressure ridge building se from Canada will bring ample arctic air into our area such that p-type will likely end up being predominantly snow (we are favoring the colder medium range guidance solutions). It is also noted that the 00Z deterministic ECMWF has now trended significantly colder/further south with the Thursday system. The coldest airmass of the season will arrive by Friday as h8 temps plummet to around -20 to -22 C. 

[MKEstorm]

MKE being cautious and acknowledging all possibilities!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Quote

Attention then turns to a storm system that appears increasingly
likely to affect portions of the Midwest sometime in the Tuesday
night to Thursday night timeframe. Deterministic guidance has
seemingly shifted south over the last 24-36 hours, but a close
look at the respective ensemble members gives a clear picture of
the significant uncertainty at this distance. Solutions include a
swath of heavy snow north of the area, south of the area, across
the area, or not at all! Bottom line, this is definitely a time
period to keep an eye on, but given that we`re still the better
part of 5-6 days out, it would be unwise to latch onto any
particular details at this juncture.

 

[tStacsh]

Why do I have a feeling this will be south of my area now.  After yesterday north? Detroit/Cleveland looking good atm.   

[East Dubzz]

Nothing ground-breaking here, but a good discussion from the DVN:

 

Quote

Larger changes in the synoptic pattern will take place early next
week as a shortwave digging into the Pacific northwest carves a deep
trough across the western third of the US into the middle of next
week. Models are in good agreement with a progressive trough as this
time. However models do show the potential for a northern and
southern branch to the jet stream further complicating the forecast.

Models show a strong, coupled northern and southern  jet streaks
moving into the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday which produces strong
lee side cyclogenesis in the High Plains of West Texas. At the same
time, a strong, progressive cold front will move across the area on
Tuesday.

This surface low shifts eastward with time with models disagreeing
on the track. The Canadian has a farther northward track of the low
into Missouri then Central Illinois while the GFS and ECWMF are
farther to the south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
precipitation type with this storm system will be highly dependent
on the track of the system and the amount and depth of cold air in
place. Additionally, strong Canadian high pressure build into the
Plains will produce a strong pressure gradient across the area with
likely windy conditions.

There remains a loft of uncertainty with this storm system as
differences between models would impact the strength, amount of
moisture, and cold air in place with this system. Changes to the
forecast of this storm system will continue to occur over the coming
days so stay tuned.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Icon N from 00z

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

Icon N from 00z

I noticed that.  

[bud2380]

GFS really ramping things up in Nebraska on Tuesday evening.  

[GDR]

Just now, bud2380 said:

GFS really ramping things up in Nebraska on Tuesday evening.  

This could be a bomb run for someone

[tStacsh]

12z GFS north and stronger initially.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS looks north as it is loading.  

[Grizzcoat]

Iowa CRUSHER on GFS

 

 

[tStacsh]

Looks like the lead northern energy on this run exits a little faster.  

[tStacsh]

Holy moly.  Don't get excited.  Don't get excited.  Don't get excited....

[GDR]

Looks like ice could be a problem to the south

[bud2380]

The entire state of Nebraska with 6+" that run.  Pretty much the same for Iowa.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, bud2380 said:

The entire state of Nebraska with 6+" that run.  Pretty much the same for Iowa.  

Much farther north than the 0z GFS.  

[bud2380]

[Grizzcoat]

[bud2380]

Further west and south view

 

[The Snowman]

Well, it looks like this will be the run that sets me up for disappointment when the inevitable shift  south (or even continued hatred of snow from the Euro) comes back

[jcwxguy]

Never good to be in the bullseye this far out in Fremont

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS through 150 hours

 

[The Snowman]

Meanwhile, the 12z GFS is also coming in much colder for the evening of February 3rd in the wake of this system compared to the 06z; by 9pm, temps are at -23 in Omaha (-13 in the 06z run, and we ended up bottoming out at -32 degrees that evening)

[MKEstorm]

According to the 12z GFS, snow would begin here around daybreak on Wednesday and not end until until early Thursday morning!

[james1976]

Why does this have to be 5 days out yet?

[mlgamer]

LOL...12z GFS sets up the standard I-70 screw job!

I'll see where things stand Tuesday. I've seen this show too many times already.

[Jayhawker85]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS through 150 hours

 

This is quite the flip from the runs earlier that had this over ks and Mo. let the model battles begin!

[tStacsh]

Still not sold.  Seems like north trend could be an outlier.  Underplaying the influence the HP will have and get strung out and weaker as it moves east.  

[Jayhawker85]

Just now, mlgamer said:

LOL...12z GFS sets up the standard I-70 screw job!

I'll see where things stand Tuesday. I've seen this show too many times already.

It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

It’s still 5 days out. Per yesterday the high pressure was too strong and pushed it all to I-70 and now today the high pressure is weaker and further north lol

12z GFS is a destructive storm here, lots of ice and 3 or 4 inches of wet snow on top.  Lets hope for a colder solution next time.

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS pretty much carbon copy of 06Z, a little W in IA. Good sign for C.IA.

Actually I go the other way with strength of H. The WAA on Monday will dictate more than most think. I understand cold air wins the battle eventually, but the WAA can slow it.

Being on the North end of these systems is not bad as it's a good snow event or nothing. Not like the ice potential down South. That stuff blows. 

[Hawkeye]

GDPS is south and narrow.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

GDPS is south and narrow.

Basically misses most of Nebraska and Iowa.  The fun of having models disagreeing with each other.  

[The Snowman]

GEFS precip shield actually looking somewhat south for Nebraska compared to 06z

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is stronger with the lead northern wave, so the snow is pushed well south of the 00z.

[GDR]

Chicago is the place to be

[GDR]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the euro Came in south

[Clinton]

12Z GEFS

[jcwxguy]

[East Dubzz]

Lock the GFS in, ignore everything else.

 

This is the way.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12Z GEFS

While the Op GFS was a bit N for mby, I like the look of the GEFS yet again for SEMI. Seems like suddenly, this is more of a W to E mover, and not such a "cutter"

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

0z EPS...not bad..in fact, its showing a wider snow shield but the obvious trend is favoring eastern parts of the Sub...

 

I think this system legit likes S/SEMI.