2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro will be coming back N this run...

Congrats on your snow today.

[Tom]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Congrats on your snow today.

Thanks bud...it was a magical LES event...very rare to see such a long-lived event on this side of the lake...

[Madtown]

Just turned my magnet on

https://fb.watch/aPY0nhQ9jO/

 

The Heikki Lunta will not be denied

 

 

[Hawkeye]

Euro is north of 00z, but still way too far south for Iowa.

[The Snowman]

Better than a southward shift I suppose...

[Tom]

Per this run, the Euro has it snowing here on the light/mod side for 36+ hours...huge hit for N IN/S MI...

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Per this run, the Euro has it snowing here on the light/mod side for 36+ hours...huge hit for N IN/S MI...

Sign me up for this long duration moderate snow event with nice totals.

[Stacsh]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Per this run, the Euro has it snowing here on the light/mod side for 36+ hours...huge hit for N IN/S MI...

And cold too.  The lead wave is faster I believe on this run establishing temps.  

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Sign me up for this long duration moderate snow event with nice totals.

NO complaints here!

 

[Madtown]

Just turned my magnet on

https://fb.watch/aPY0nhQ9jO/

 

The Heikki Lunta will not be denied

 

[Tom]

Could the lake be our friend...Again?  Solid signals that NE IL could be walloped...both GFS/EURO paint 20" at ORD....hmmm, If this comes into fruition you won't hear me complaining...

[East Dubzz]

13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Euro is north of 00z, but still way too far south for Iowa.

 

Sure, but still quite far away, so any shift back in our direction is a positive one. Rather this than stay the same or get worse. It was a pretty sizeable shift north. The northern cutoff is much more defined on this run, though. 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

NO complaints here!

 

Wow @jaster220and @Niko really get pounded.  I like where KC is in this, we have some wiggle room.  The most likely outcome will probably be a compromise between the Euro and GFS and that should serve us well.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Could the lake be our friend...Again?  Solid signals that NE IL could be walloped...both GFS/EURO paint 20" at ORD....hmmm, If this comes into fruition you won't hear me complaining...

GEFS showed that also.  Looks great for you bud!

[Tom]

Just now, Clinton said:

Wow @jaster220and @Niko really get pounded.  I like where KC is in this, we have some wiggle room.  The most likely outcome will probably be a compromise between the Euro and GFS and that serve us well.

Agree, usually the Euro is money inside D5...I like the way it develops the initial wave along the baro zone in C IL/C IN...very similar to the GFS in placement except the GFS has more snow farther north over I-80 in NE/IA.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

GEFS showed that also.  Looks great for you bud!

The lake is still wide open after such a warm DEC....just some shoreline ice forming is all...the lake plume today was over 250 miles long!  Alright, I have to go outside and shovel the fresh powda!  Looking forward to seeing your EPS/EC posts.

[The Snowman]

Living in fantasyland with the 12z GFS, bear with me here...

At its peak, the model has almost 0.4" QPF falling in a six-hour timeframe with temperatures averaging around 15 degrees, which should result in snow ratios good enough for 10" of snow. Pretty wild.

[bud2380]

I’m hoping the Euro caves to the GFS. A statement that would have been laughable a few years ago. But lately we’ve seen the GFS wins some battles over the Euro. And at this range. Plenty of options still on the table. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

I’m hoping the Euro caves to the GFS. A statement that would have been laughable a few years ago. But lately we’ve seen the GFS wins some battles over the Euro. And at this range. Plenty of options still on the table. 

Was just thinking the same thing.

[GDR]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I’m hoping the Euro caves to the GFS. A statement that would have been laughable a few years ago. But lately we’ve seen the GFS wins some battles over the Euro. And at this range. Plenty of options still on the table. 

Last big snow in iowa gfs nailed it. Just saying 

[Tom]

On my phone….holy shhhh is the EPS juiced!  My goodness, this is trending towards a Big Dog for the MW/Lower Lakes.  9” snow mean for ORD at this range is incredible.  Hope this continues.  The 6” mean has expanded largely into C IL/IN/MI.

[snowstorm83]

31 minutes ago, Tom said:

On my phone….holy shhhh is the EPS juiced!  My goodness, this is trending towards a Big Dog for the MW/Lower Lakes.  9” snow mean for ORD at this range is incredible.  Hope this continues.  The 6” mean has expanded largely into C IL/IN/MI.

Still not great for Nebraska. Chicago is looking golden for this one, 8+" means on both GEFS and EPS is no joke. 

[Clinton]

12z EPS 10:1 maps

Control run

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS 10:1 maps

 

 

 

Control run

 

lol that control is 10:1

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, hlcater said:

lol that control is 10:1

The Control has been showing ridiculous amounts at times with this storm.  Some runs have shown more than this and I didn't share them because it seemed so far out there.

[tStacsh]

Ratio's would be a little higher than 10-1 right where I am.  I'm in a good spot now.  South shift would concern me.  But a slight north shift would be even sweeter.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Still not great for Nebraska. Chicago is looking golden for this one, 8+" means on both GEFS and EPS is no joke. 

Its been a long time since I've seen such good agreement this far out from both global models.  Reminds me of some of the bigger storms we hav seen over the years.

The JMA model is also onboard...

 

 

[gabel23]

Well then that stinks. Just get rid of that dry air to the north and throw us a bone. Lots of time for this to change I know but things look like they have been for my area all year. Missed to the south and east. Hoping for a GFS win on this one. 

[Grizzcoat]

Icon well N. Rain / snow line well N

 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

Icon well N. Rain / snow line well N

 

Has a stronger SE ridge than previously allowing it to cut more.  

[Tom]

LOT touching on the unusual agreement this far out...

 

Quote

A look at the 12z GEFS and ECMWF (EPS) ensemble mean and members
certainly stands out for increasing confidence in a significant
winter event for part of if not much of the CWA despite the rather
extended lead time. 4-day (10:1) snowfall means up in 5-9" range,
along with 30-40% probabilities of 6"+ totals and 60-90% probabilities
of 3"+ totals highlights the high % of members with significant
snow swaths. Can`t rule out the outlier members with everything
shunted a bit south, though with that said, felt comfortable even
slightly adjusting PoPs upward a bit from NBM initialization due
to likely to categorical probabilities of measurable precip.
Regarding the wintry mix threat, should a more amplified wave
shunt elevated baroclinic zone back north a bit (such as on 12z
operational GFS and several ensemble members), this would
increase risk of a zone of freezing rain and sleet given northerly
cold air drain. Added in slight chance wintry mix mention for
areas south of US-24 Wednesday through Wednesday evening.

 

[indianajohn]

So is it time to go little grocery shopping and Stock up before it gets crazy when the news breaks..

[tStacsh]

GFS going to be north.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Wow @jaster220and @Niko really get pounded.  I like where KC is in this, we have some wiggle room.  The most likely outcome will probably be a compromise between the Euro and GFS and that should serve us well.

"Wow @jaster220and @Niko really get pounded...East Coast style"  Holy hotness! Y'all just posted my new fantasy storm dream map for my avatar pic if I ever get that functioning again. I'm speechless. I refuse to look at models from this range, I just let all you pro posters check that box. I've been waiting for this to unceremoniously shrivel into yet another disappointing WWA event like we got with NYD system. Instead, the globals keep upping the ante!  

[East Dubzz]

8 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

GFS going to be north.  

Really? My initial thoughts are that it's going to be a bit further south than the last run at least.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Could the lake be our friend...Again?  Solid signals that NE IL could be walloped...both GFS/EURO paint 20" at ORD....hmmm, If this comes into fruition you won't hear me complaining...

'grats on the nice LES storm friend! How much did you measure? Aren't those a fun-fun-fun surprise!

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Agree, ..usually the Euro is money inside D5.I like the way it develops the initial wave along the baro zone in C IL/C IN...very similar to the GFS in placement except the GFS has more snow farther north over I-80 in NE/IA.

If I could go look at one model, I'd be pulling up the Euro surface in 6 hour increments to see just how it progresses and if it's portrayal makes any sense at all. Unfortunately I don't have any sub's to a premium service where I could see such content. To have nearly 30" painted over mby it has to be a rather eye-popping look.  

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Agree, usually the Euro is money inside D5...I like the way it develops the initial wave along the baro zone in C IL/C IN...very similar to the GFS in placement except the GFS has more snow farther north over I-80 in NE/IA.

Oops, meant to ask in my prior post. So, when exactly (timestamp) does the Euro show that wave developed in C IL/C IN??

 

[East Dubzz]

Definitely further south than the 12z run. 

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"Wow @jaster220and @Niko really get pounded...East Coast style"  Holy hotness! Y'all just posted my new fantasy storm dream map for my avatar pic if I ever get that functioning again. I'm speechless. I refuse to look at models from this range, I just let all you pro posters check that box. I've been waiting for this to unceremoniously shrivel into yet another disappointing WWA event like we got with NYD system. Instead, the globals keep upping the ante!  

If it pans out I hope your feeling good enough to enjoy it.  I know you were hoping for some warmer weather but that doesn't look to be headed your way anytime soon.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

'grats on the nice LES storm friend! How much did you measure? Aren't those a fun-fun-fun surprise!

If I could go look at one model, I'd be pulling up the Euro surface in 6 hour increments to see just how it progresses and if it's portrayal makes any sense at all. Unfortunately I don't have any sub's to a premium service where I could see such content. To have nearly 30" painted over mby it has to be a rather eye-popping look.  

Got about 3.5” when I was only expecting to see 1-2”.  A win in my book!