2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Clinton]

0z CMC way south crushes mby.

[GDR]

Iowans should throw in the towel congrats to kc and Chicago peeps

[Clinton]

0z GEFS not a lot of change

 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, GDR said:

Iowans should throw in the towel congrats to kc and Chicago peeps

To much time left don't you think.  KC can get screwed like no other with storms like this.

[The Snowman]

Just now, Clinton said:

To much time left don't you think.  KC can get screwed like no other with storms like this.

Agreed, I can relate way too much to the despair but my gut says Iowa ends up in the action. Omaha ... not so sure.

[The Snowman]

Personally I take more comfort in the fact that a significant storm is still being shown than a shift away from me locally; there's plenty of time for further shifts to occur, but the second we start seeing a weaker trend is something to *really* be concerned about.

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, The Snowman said:

Agreed, I can relate way too much to the despair but my gut says Iowa ends up in the action. Omaha ... not so sure.

Iowa hasn't missed out on many storms this year I can't imagine they won't get something out of this.

[bud2380]

It’s really the GFS vs. all others at this point. Well see what the Euro does tonight. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GEFS not a lot of change

 

Man, these maps are eye candy and I can't help but think how long I've been waiting for a storm set up like this.  Seriously though, the GEFS have been so darn consistent with this system and they keep creeping up the qpf totals each 0z/12z suite.  Wild stuff.

 

I'm digging the Lehs signal at this range all the way from SE WI down into NE IL...

 

Based off the GEFS members, every single one is showing the precip to start off as snow in N IL....9.3" snow mean for ORD and 10" for the city of Chicago...

 

 

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Man, these maps are eye candy and I can't help but think how long I've been waiting for a storm set up like this.  Seriously though, the GEFS have been so darn consistent with this system and they keep creeping up the qpf totals each 0z/12z suite.  Wild stuff.

 

I'm digging the Lehs signal at this range all the way from SE WI down into NE IL...

 

Based off the GEFS members, every single one is showing the precip to start off as snow in N IL....9.3" snow mean for ORD and 10" for the city of Chicago...

 

 

It sure is juicy the only thing that has me concerned here is that the warm nose at the beginning looks like it's going to be there and how much will that cut my snow totals.  You look golden and the lake may produce for you through Friday!

[jcwxguy]

northern stream needs to speed up just a little, thats the problem with the ukie and cmc for us nebraska folks 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It sure is juicy the only thing that has me concerned here is that the warm nose at the beginning looks like it's going to be there and how much will that cut my snow totals.  You look golden and the lake may produce for you through Friday!

I'm beginning to get a bit excited about the fact that we could be working with a nearly perfect long duration Lehs scenario...the placement of the strong Upper MW HP is a classic set up for this side of the lake along with a impending significant winter storm.  24+ hours is hard to do...but 36+ hours is off the charts!

[Tom]

The last 6 runs off the GEFS showing a more convincing jog NW with the heavier precip...

 

 

[jcwxguy]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

The last 6 runs off the GEFS showing a more convincing jog NW with the heavier precip...

 

 

needs to keep going nw for us in nebraska and iowa

[Sciascia]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

Man, these maps are eye candy and I can't help but think how long I've been waiting for a storm set up like this.  Seriously though, the GEFS have been so darn consistent with this system and they keep creeping up the qpf totals each 0z/12z suite.  Wild stuff.

 

I'm digging the Lehs signal at this range all the way from SE WI down into NE IL...

 

Based off the GEFS members, every single one is showing the precip to start off as snow in N IL....9.3" snow mean for ORD and 10" for the city of Chicago...

 

 

Any ensemble showing Orange near Chicago is definitely a rare occurrence. 

[snowstorm83]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

needs to keep going nw for us in nebraska and iowa

Don’t get me wrong, I’d be thrilled with 3-6”, but if models show that I know it’ll be 1.5” 

[Tom]

0z Euro looks weaker and south this run...

[hlcater]

People in NE/IA should not lose sleep trying to track a storm that is almost certainly not ours.

 

Yea it could theoretically come this far north, but given the players on the field, it would be tremendously difficult to do so. Primarily we'd need the northern stream to weaken such that the cold front in behind that system doesn't advance quite so far south. Or the energy in the west needs to eject faster than it is currently on the models. Neither of which have been the trend today. I'd love this to come north as much as anyone, but it's time to be realistic.

[Tom]

Actually, the Euro does get its act together but trended south this run...its funny how the 12z/0z runs flip flop with the Euro.  The 12z runs come N while the 0z runs come in S...has anyone else notice that?  Let's see what the EPS show later on...

 

 

[Tom]

Closer up...

 

[jaster220]

44 minutes ago, Tom said:

Closer up...

 

The more northern "share the wealth" GFS gives me upper teens total, while the Euro, even this "south 0z" run gives me nearly 2 foot! When does this illusion evaporate again? Some of these runs are just wowza, especially for KTOL. Would be like way over their all-time storm total in history. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z ICON has 2 waves like the 18z GFS absolutely buries KC and Chicago

That nasty gradient of 2" south to 12" as you go from southern Wayne County and hit the Oakland county line has been a repeating theme with so many storms this winter, it gives one pause that this isn't an impossible scenario either. Tho most would consider the ICON quite an inferior global. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Man, these maps are eye candy and I can't help but think how long I've been waiting for a storm set up like this.  Seriously though, the GEFS have been so darn consistent with this system and they keep creeping up the qpf totals each 0z/12z suite.  Wild stuff.

 

I'm digging the Lehs signal at this range all the way from SE WI down into NE IL...

 

Based off the GEFS members, every single one is showing the precip to start off as snow in N IL....9.3" snow mean for ORD and 10" for the city of Chicago...

 

 

Yeah, when I saw that panel of (19 of 20) surface reflections giving this place either snow (most of 'em) or a mix pounding I was like "woah!" that's something I can't remember seeing except maybe 7 yrs ago for GHD-2 as it was approaching. 

[jaster220]

Wonder if Niko went out east to intercept that bliz or what? He's sure MIA in here. Hopefully not another 'Rona casualty. Detroit region's been hit HARD!

[jaster220]

 

CPC says "Giddy up"! First one of these this winter for mby:

 

[jaster220]

GRR still bullish..

Quote

- Potential for an impactful winter storm mid week next week

The most recent runs of the models are still showing a stronger mid to upper level wave dropping in from the northwest...strengthening as it does for the middle of next week. Gulf moisture gets drawn into this wave. PWAT anomalies clearly show this surge of Gulf moisture getting drawn into the OH Valley then. This leads to a large area of precipitation spreading into the CWA Wed into Thu. Overall most models are keeping the main type of precipitation as snow...but the freezing rain risk is fairly close to Jackson County which will need to be monitored. A colder trend in the models has been noted though. The models have trended up with the QPF and also have narrowed the window for heaviest QPF to Wednesday into Thursday. Unusually high confidence for better than a half inch of QPF exists for Grand Rapids. Putting this together...heavy snow is the main risk potential at this time for much of the CWA. The CIPS analogs also support the increased risk for a heavier snow for the area. We will increase POPs and highlight the potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook at this time.

 

[snowstorm83]

EPS not good at all for NE/IA 

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

EPS not good at all for NE/IA 

Hmm. GRR's 3 am update was noting the SE trends on models. Saying their backyard (GR) may be out of the good stuff too. I know one thing, this bitter cold pattern has always been kismet for the Detroit area to score big. It's almost a requirement in fact. Marginal temp regimes just don't cut it here. 

[jaster220]

29/0z GEFS 12+ Probs map has Chicago/NE IL looking like "ground zero" with yet another MW/GL's storm

 

[GDR]

My man T swails says this thing has nothing burger written all over it. Cold air wins out and pushes way south in the coming days

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, GDR said:

My man T swails says this thing has nothing burger written all over it. Cold air wins out and pushes way south in the coming days

It's entirely possible he's correct ofc, since we are into Feb next week and thus "suppression season". But until the GEFS move that way significantly, I would not toss a towel quite yet. At about this same timeframe (4 days out) back in late January 2015, models actually had moved well S of where GHD-2 ended up. Maps were favoring IN/OH with Chicago over to Detroit riding the northern fringe of the snow shield. 

[jaster220]

From DTX overnight AFD. Looking better here..

Quote

Medium range solutions continue to advertise potential for a
significant winter system affecting Southeast Michigan Wednesday
through Friday. Positively tilted longwave trough arises with rapid
development of an elongated and energetic jet core as a Pacific wave
phases with a perturbation in the polar low. One key factor to
monitor lies with the strength and extent of southward expansion for
the deepening polar low. 00Z/06Z solutions remain bullish in pushing
the 1000-850 mb 130 dam thickness line south of the state-line by
Wednesday morning in the wake of the arctic front. Forward
propagation slows Wednesday PM into Thursday AM with the sharpest
density gradient setting up along the international border and
arcing southwest through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This zone will
contain the highest magnitude of positive H9-H7 baroclinicity. As
long as the resultant ascent holds southeast of the state, long-
duration snow production is favored, peaking Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday. There is still uncertainty with regard to mixed-
precip, especially for the Metro Detroit area. But as of now,
ensemble guidance has fallen into the snow camp with a non-zero
chance of double-digit totals by Friday morning.
 

 

[jaster220]

6z GFS came in hotness. 1.7" qpf yielding about 20-21" total here via Kuchera formula:

 

[The Snowman]

Attaching a few excerpts of regional NWS AFDs I found interesting, as far as keys to trying to see past model mayhem.

OMA:

Quote

...The key to where the main band of snow will fall is expected to lie with the Monday system to the south. A slower and deeper system will favor a northward shift of the heaviest snow into the local area, while the opposite is true with a faster and weaker system. Trends will continue to be monitored...

 

GID:

Quote

...The 00Z GFS also trended further south with the accumulating snow, but still indicates more snow than the ECMWF, but am worried that the GFS is not doing a good job of accounting for the really dry air near the surface...

 

TOP:

Quote

...One more complicating factor is that recent runs are showing indications of a tight gradient along the northern edge of the snowfall, which makes sense with CAA and drier air possibly eating away at that north side...

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

6z GFS came in hotness. 1.7" qpf yielding about 20-21" total here via Kuchera formula:

 

Im out of the heavy.  unless it trends north on all models.  Regardless of what this shows.  

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 

CPC says "Giddy up"! First one of these this winter for mby:

 

First time this season KC has been in the heavy snow circle, hope I can stay there.

[Clinton]

0z Euro Mean 10:1 maps

6z GEFS

[jaster220]

31 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Im out of the heavy.  unless it trends north on all models.  Regardless of what this shows.  

More important than this off-hour Op run tho, is that the GEFS have kept you/GR in the area of good snows. GHD-2 was also south on the models at this range fwiw. 

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z Euro Mean 10:1 maps

6z GEFS

These 2 are not that far apart. I say just split the difference already! 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

These 2 are not that far apart. I say just split the difference already! 

I'll take it!  I would just like the GFS operational to push that ice further south at the beginning.  Ice is just a pain in the a** for my animals.