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2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)


Tom

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DTX has "Snow LIkely or higher at KDTW from 7 am Wed until 12 pm Thursday, followed by another 12 hours when there's still a "chance" of snow:

 

2022-01-29 DTW hourly precip graph.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My offices take as of this morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Tuesday remains a transition day ahead of the next system. During
the day expect a frontal boundary to gradually drift through the
area drawing in colder air behind it. Ahead of the front gulf
moisture will stream north and rain showers will become possible
for the southern part of the area through the afternoon. For the
rest of the area including the KC Metro, much of the day will
remain dry with afternoon temperatures around 40 degrees. Cold air
will continue to surge into the area Tuesday night. At the same
time a deepening wave moving off the Rockies will ignite an
additional round of precipitation impacting the entire area. At
this point it appears that the Kansas City area along with
northern Missouri will see precipitation begin as all snow after
sunset Tuesday night. The southern part of the area will see a
transition of rain to snow during the overnight. This is the part
that gets a bit tricky though as it appears some warmer air will
be present aloft which could lead to a period of mixed
precipitation types prior to Wednesday morning for our southern
counties. All of the area is expected to transition to snow during
the day on Wednesday with snow chances lingering into Wednesday
night.

At this point there remains significant uncertainty with the exact
track of the system. This will play a large role in where heaviest
snow sets up along with where prolonged mixed precipitation will
be possible. Long range models have continued to waffle from run
to run on where the more significant snow fall band will be.
Regardless of uncertainties, confidence continues to grow that at
least some locations in our area will experience an impactful snow
storm. While we are still too far out to delve into specific
amounts, it would be a good idea to continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days and prepare for possible impacts.

View image on Twitter

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37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

My offices take as of this morning.

View image on Twitter

I think this chart is pretty much on target. I wouldn't be surprised to see a further southeast shift and the kansas side dry out even further. I think the euro is already hinting at this.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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3 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I think this chart is pretty much on target. I wouldn't be surprised to see a further southeast shift and the kansas side dry out even further. I think the euro is already hinting at this.

The Euro can stop with the south shift.  I still think a blend of the Euro and GFS is the most likely outcome.  The ensembles hint at this.

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

More important than this off-hour Op run tho, is that the GEFS have kept you/GR in the area of good snows. GHD-2 was also south on the models at this range fwiw. 

I here ya, but the cutoff and dry air will be too much. Went from elated for a storm to dejected in the matter of hours lol.  But that’s winter for you.   Need a Solid trend north in the models the next day or 2 or significant snow is off the table here.  Can’t win em all.  Detroit looking sweet.  

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God Chicago keeps getting everything. I talked with someone who drove up from around O'Hare and made it to Alpine Valley to ski, left the house thinking there was a ton of stuff up here, he was pretty disappointed when I told him we had a little flurries the night before that didn't really give us anything.

 

Snowmobile trail maps, I'm in Walworth in the SE Corner (second county from the East. image.png.a8c68698631ed26f2be6e5dab6adb78a.png

I know you guys in the south like to see snow but there are a lot of people up here who could use it and they're not getting proper snowboarding/skiing and snowmobiling out of it. Cross country skiing seems fine but it doesn't take much for that. It would be amazing if this hit from the Dells to Green Bay but it seems like no chance.

Funny thing GFS started showing us that southern Wisconsin was getting nothing but rain, and now we're back to models showing us maybe 2 inches where I'm at. GFS is the only one showing me on the edge of good snow. But I am really, really hoping this turns out. My BFF has Weds and Thurs off of work and if we get good snow in SE Wisconsin it means two days of riding real snow.

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS I'm speechless Kansas and Missouri folks it's been a long time coming. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko thats big time!

It's nice to see it come back N on this run as well as amplifying the last wave that tracks up through S IL/S IN/OH...trends are our friends.  I would imagine the GEFS are a touch NW and juiced up this way.

1.gif

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS I'm speechless Kansas and Missouri folks it's been a long time coming. @Tom @jaster220 @Niko thats big time!

The GFS and ICON (20"-22") would possibly give Topeka it's greatest storm total on record (17.3" is the 24hr record) and would be more than we have seen for most recent winters. So yeah maybe...also pretty sharp cutoff to the north and west.

I do think @Clinton looks good for this event, maybe even more snow and less mix if things fall into place.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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26 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS shows 12” for Iowa City. Yet I feel not remotely excited about it. The south shift continues and unless there is a reversal soon this will not even hit most of iowa 

 I dont  trust the gfs at all.  Short term models  will figure this out. We are entering the killer timeframe for the euro tho. But over my life I have seen many winter storm   move 40 to 100 miles further north than progged.  The Jan 1st storm kinda did that. I prefer a southern trend rather than a northern trend

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The GFS and ICON (20"-22") would possibly give Topeka it's greatest storm total on record (17.3" is the 24hr record) and would be more than we have seen for most recent winters. So yeah maybe...also pretty sharp cutoff to the north and west.

I do think @Clinton looks good for this event, maybe even more snow and less mix if things fall into place.

 

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's nice to see it come back N on this run as well as amplifying the last wave that tracks up through S IL/S IN/OH...trends are our friends.  I would imagine the GEFS are a touch NW and juiced up this way.

1.gif

Tom you nailed it, more juiced and further NW.  @mlgamer you have a great chance to find yourself in the heavy snow band!

1643965200-Bpu1GjERVwU.png

1643954400-eMmbkoJlNI0.png

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Just now, Clinton said:

 

Tom you nailed it, more juiced and further NW.  @mlgamer you have a great chance to find yourself in the heavy snow band!

1643965200-Bpu1GjERVwU.png

1643954400-eMmbkoJlNI0.png

Boom!  Almost 60% of the members are showing a stronger wave cutting up to the lower lakes...10" snow mean for ORD

image.png

 

image.png

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’ll take 1,8 or 14 and call it a winter.  Hope this is a trend and not a one time run.  

Promising run for sure, but not 100% sold on it...I'd buy into more if the Euro or UKIE show something similar today.

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It's difficult for me to buy anything the GFS is selling considering every other model has nothing up here.  The push of cold air is too strong.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z UKIE weak and south....

image.png

The Ukie is what bothers me the most as this has been a common occurrence here over recent years and certainly could happen this time. I guess I picked a bad week to quit drinking...😵

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's difficult for me to buy anything the GFS is selling considering every other model has nothing up here.  The push of cold air is too strong.

I find it odd that the GEFS is even further north than the GFS operational model. This gives me some hope that it’s somewhat correct. But if the Euro doesn’t move in this direction shortly then I’ll have a hard time believing that this ends up that far north. 

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Well at least it's fun to watch because it seems like nothing is very confident right now. It seems like the storms the models don't agree on and have problems figuring out are the ones that end up performing really well. I feel like whoever gets hit by this thing is going to get walloped. Even Ukie being weak and south still drops 9 inches. With these below average temps, someone is going to enjoy a nice base for February.

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