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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


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I know it's a farce- but I can't recall any model ever forecasting -30F in DSM. That's the coldest its ever been in recorded history-- JAN 5th, 1884. Though I personally believe the -26F in FEB 1996' (along with all the state records across the region) should take the cake being where it was measured in a city and not in river valley. But I digress.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I got my eyes on the Feb. 10th-Feb. 16th time frame. The december part of the pattern is due in then. That's the part of the pattern where we seen a tornado outbreak in the midwest. That's if the LRC is in fact on a 60 day cycle. 

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GFS is so funny with next week's CO low. Better be prepared for your 28", Waterloo!!!!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Yikes- don't often see modeled sub 500 thickness levels well into Iowa.  I swear if this FEB some how mimics the epic cold of last (this would again mess with Texas as some mets are all ready hinting out) a study needs to be done on why DEC's are warming and the end of winters are kicking major arse. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The overnight was one of those nights when the temperature slowly went up. The low here and officially at GRR of 5 happened around midnight. At this time it is partly cloudy and 17 here. There was trace of snow fall here yesterday and there is 6.5" of snow on the ground. As for next weeks possible system? That remains to be seen there is a lot and I mean a lot of time before we see how this plays out. But I will say we have now been in this cold and dry pattern for about 30 days or so and most patterns only last 30 to 45 days so we are due for a pattern change. It could be warmer/wetter or just warmer or just wetter. Dryer or colder are much less likely.

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This is from Terry Swails blog this morning.  The GFS was brutally cold after the 10th of Feb, not sure I buy it but it's out there.

I will end on a bang with this. It's the projected 500mb flow on the GFS February 10th. That folks is something we adamantly hope does not materialize. That configuration would deliver a vicious shot of cold air that's far worse than anything we've seen so far this winter.

 
file.png0d40d5_c125500bff764352b288357e730d0481~mv2.webp
 
 
 

These are the temperature anomalies depicted February 11th. Notice on the legend the pink is where the scale stops with temperatures 33 below normal. Totally maxed out over a huge area.

 
file.png0d40d5_6754c3264a6d4bb998de81f28e00c54b~mv2.webp
 
 
 

Closer inspection below shows readings surrounding the Quad Cities and the rest of my area 39 to 42 degrees below normal. Add a nice breeze to that and you might as well be at the North Pole. I seriously hope the GFS has a change of heart in coming days. Stay tuned.

 
file.png0d40d5_792f875363744116b7eb77da33b42b3b~mv2.webp
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This is from Terry Swails blog this morning.  The GFS was brutally cold after the 10th of Feb, not sure I buy it but it's out there.

I will end on a bang with this. It's the projected 500mb flow on the GFS February 10th. That folks is something we adamantly hope does not materialize. That configuration would deliver a vicious shot of cold air that's far worse than anything we've seen so far this winter.

 
file.png0d40d5_c125500bff764352b288357e730d0481~mv2.webp
 
 
 

These are the temperature anomalies depicted February 11th. Notice on the legend the pink is where the scale stops with temperatures 33 below normal. Totally maxed out over a huge area.

 
file.png0d40d5_6754c3264a6d4bb998de81f28e00c54b~mv2.webp
 
 
 

Closer inspection below shows readings surrounding the Quad Cities and the rest of my area 39 to 42 degrees below normal. Add a nice breeze to that and you might as well be at the North Pole. I seriously hope the GFS has a change of heart in coming days. Stay tuned.

 
file.png0d40d5_792f875363744116b7eb77da33b42b3b~mv2.webp

Texas should watch out for this….

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^^^ Many mets talking about Texas again...

This is surreal. But it keeps getting modeled .AgaIn- DSM coldest ever is -30F back in a river valley in 1884.

sfct.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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51 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^^ Many mets talking about Texas again...

This is surreal. But it keeps getting modeled .AgaIn- DSM coldest ever is -30F back in a river valley in 1884.

sfct.us_mw.png

Fargo is going to be like in a ice age if this verifies. 

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6 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Fargo is going to be like in a ice age if this verifies. 

Even -22F at MSP is remarkable in this day and age of concrete jungles. An airport (much like DSM in location) that is situated on the S side of MAJOR METRO area so cold air advection on NW/N winds gets warmed compared to going over a barbed wire fence years back...  Even 10 degrees off these temps is remarkable.  DSM saw -20F back on Jan 30th , 2019 and it had been over 8400 days since the last occurrence in FEB 1996.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Texas should watch out for this….

Help me out here.  
Could you elaborate? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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10 minutes ago, Andie said:

Help me out here.  
Could you elaborate? 

I’m going out on a limb here-  but I think the concern is that the very cold weather in Texas could take the grid down again…. And cause a repeat of the chaos of all the frozen pipes etc from a year ago

im sure if I’m wrong someone will correct me!

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16 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

A repeat of Feb 2021 with the power grid failing again.

Honestly though it’s a big risk anywhere with temps as cold as that’s showing.

I know they warned here in Iowa of power outages in 2019. The infrastructure isn’t buildt to handle -30/-35. Things fail faster and with furnaces literally running 24/7 non-stop it’s a huge draw on power 

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12 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^^ Many mets talking about Texas again...

This is surreal. But it keeps getting modeled .AgaIn- DSM coldest ever is -30F back in a river valley in 1884.

sfct.us_mw.png

In my 15 years in the Ottumwa  area. Ive seen minus 27, minus 22,  and probably  10 times  of  minus 16 to minus 20.  Those were 2 diff rural areas south and west of Ottumwa.   Im sure the creekside late jan 2019 was minus 30 or colder  that morning.  I suspect  one day  i will see minus 30 here.

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14 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

A repeat of Feb 2021 with the power grid failing again.

When is this joy expected??
Hope you gents are off on this but I, and many other Texans, are as prepared as possible.  Many of us have gathered solar powered camping items.  I can kind of warm up. Not toasty but civilized.  And have light planned. With a gas grill we can eat.
 

I just hope there isn’t ice on the road and no repeat of the horrendous pile up on 35. It was a challenge for the city keeping then generators fueled for police, fire, water.  
My husband handles the City Fleet and they pulled it off last year without so much as a shimmy on the road transporting diesel to generators.  They all got commendations for that trick.
But once was plenty, thanks.   🙁

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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My office is beginning to hype the cold.

0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg

Heads Up: We are starting to see some signaling for extreme cold by the end of next week! Y'all are likely hyper-focused on championship sportsball stuff and snow chances next week, but it's never too late to prepare before snow and cold arrives! 🥶❄️🧤🧣🥾
 
 
 
 
 
0nJUMs1r_normal.jpg

 
Conversation in the office: February 2021: "No one can beat our cold!" February 2022: "Hold my Thermometer!" #HereComesFebruary #AnotherKCCompetition
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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS trying to develop another storm on the 6th and 7th, it's not one I was expecting.  @Tomany thoughts on this?

Giddy up buddy, the pattern is ripe for the MW/Lower Lakes as nature will fill in the "snow holes"...the way I see it now, which was my LR call a couple weeks ago is for something special to develop.  I originally planned for it at the tail end of JAN but that one system that targeted KS/OK/CO earlier this week didn't really phase into the flow aloft.  Bummer.  I guess nature will make up for it on Ground Hog Day!

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I may not be able to teach a son-of-a-gun anything avout long range winter forecasting to save my life. I'll give every fool with nothing better to do but pine on it, that much, but I can teach the 3 "P"s of success...Patience, Persistence, and Perseverance.

I say that, because Ive held faith for, not 6, but 12 years that we were entering the age we are going into. Not a hotbox.

In like a lamb...

Rawr.

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On 1/27/2022 at 9:10 AM, Clinton said:

This is from Terry Swails blog this morning.  The GFS was brutally cold after the 10th of Feb, not sure I buy it but it's out there.

I will end on a bang with this. It's the projected 500mb flow on the GFS February 10th. That folks is something we adamantly hope does not materialize. That configuration would deliver a vicious shot of cold air that's far worse than anything we've seen so far this winter.

 
file.png0d40d5_c125500bff764352b288357e730d0481~mv2.webp
 
 
 

These are the temperature anomalies depicted February 11th. Notice on the legend the pink is where the scale stops with temperatures 33 below normal. Totally maxed out over a huge area.

 
file.png0d40d5_6754c3264a6d4bb998de81f28e00c54b~mv2.webp
 
 
 

Closer inspection below shows readings surrounding the Quad Cities and the rest of my area 39 to 42 degrees below normal. Add a nice breeze to that and you might as well be at the North Pole. I seriously hope the GFS has a change of heart in coming days. Stay tuned.

 
file.png0d40d5_792f875363744116b7eb77da33b42b3b~mv2.webp

Hey, I remember this weird "Okie" who's been looking for this day for a minute. :😁1917-18 is or could be a clue.

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@Clinton, the latest MJO forecast from the JMA continues to take the pattern into Phase 2/3...this has been almost a carbon copy over the past 3-5 days.  

image.png

 

Now, this is where it gets interesting bc tonights run is showing the Euro jumping on board...well...sorta, as some members are hinting at it popping into the same vicinity as the JMA.  The last few runs of the Euro was primarily in the NULL phase so this is prob a clue we will see a colder EPS run for Week 2 tonight.

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The American suite is suggesting a Phase 3 scenario...

 

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Using the 10mb STRAT animation below, take a gander at the time stamp period starting off around Jan 14th thru the end of the animation.  Notice the blossoming warm anomalies in the NE PAC that continue and expand into W NAMER.  Big time clue that there will be a dominant NE PAC ridge/NW NAMER ridge well into FEB.

temp10anim.gif

 

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS are illustrating this pattern in the extended almost to a "T"...that's why I don't buy the EPS in the Week 2 period flooding the CONUS with warmth and a +EPO.  It is slowly correcting this known bias esp when you get deeper into Winter.  The other LR clue I'm paying attn to is the N PAC pattern that is literally advertising a wave train of storms cutting from the SW into the Aleutians.  SW Flow....a non stop N PAC trough that is slightly west into the Aleutians translates into a central CONUS trough.  I'm using this as guidance that we should see the models correct more towards a central CONUS trough for the second half of FEB.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, the latest MJO forecast from the JMA continues to take the pattern into Phase 2/3...this has been almost a carbon copy over the past 3-5 days.  

image.png

 

Now, this is where it gets interesting bc tonights run is showing the Euro jumping on board...well...sorta, as some members are hinting at it popping into the same vicinity as the JMA.  The last few runs of the Euro was primarily in the NULL phase so this is prob a clue we will see a colder EPS run for Week 2 tonight.

image.png

 

The American suite is suggesting a Phase 3 scenario...

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

Using the 10mb STRAT animation below, take a gander at the time stamp period starting off around Jan 14th thru the end of the animation.  Notice the blossoming warm anomalies in the NE PAC that continue and expand into W NAMER.  Big time clue that there will be a dominant NE PAC ridge/NW NAMER ridge well into FEB.

temp10anim.gif

 

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS are illustrating this pattern in the extended almost to a "T"...that's why I don't buy the EPS in the Week 2 period flooding the CONUS with warmth and a +EPO.  It is slowly correcting this known bias esp when you get deeper into Winter.  The other LR clue I'm paying attn to is the N PAC pattern that is literally advertising a wave train of storms cutting from the SW into the Aleutians.  SW Flow....a non stop N PAC trough that is slightly west into the Aleutians translates into a central CONUS trough.  I'm using this as guidance that we should see the models correct more towards a central CONUS trough for the second half of FEB.

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Looking more at what the GFS is showing for the 6th and 7th, it might be catching on to the start of cycle 3.  If that is the case there could be something bigger around the 12th.  It will be interesting to see what the models do over the next week.

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So how are models for North Texas and Eastern Okla?  

Im trying to give the City Fleet people a heads up.  Mets here are being very tight lipped. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This will be a short and quick post in regards to where the Week 2 pattern is heading.  After a brief Lull in the pattern post next weeks storm, the North American hemispheric pattern will re-align as the NE PAC ridge pops and high lat blocking develops (neutral AO) and a slightly -PNA pattern evolves.  This, my friends, is a beneficial pattern for the MW and points East.  The EPS is slowly coming around and starting to sniff out the next potential big ticket storm in the 11th-13th period.  There is a hint of something developing a couple days earlier over the GL's region as well.  The pattern over the eastern SUB appears to be in the vicinity of the Action Zone through mid month.

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Looks like we can lock in another two weeks of snow all winter for SE Wisconsin before spring and the sun gets too strong so it melts any snow away quickly. Going to be one of those winters again. And to think with all these temps we just needed a few good storms in early January for it to be an amazing one for outdoor winter sports. Not like it was warm or rainy or anything, temps were great for sports.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

This winter really turned out to be a pretty big dud. And yeah I'm pretty salty about missing the storm this week, I know looking good that far our isn't usually good, but I still had some hope for some snow. They groomed all the trails here to prepare for the snow, which pushed it all down and scraped a lot of the loose stuff completely down to the ground where the trails were uneven. Basically, they ruined the snowmobile trail base anticipating this snow and now it's not going to come. Which means we're going to need an even better storm if they plan to open up.

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Any hope fore something up this way or is this pattern gonna suppress everything south. Trails need a refresher badly everything  has been worked over so much its turned into sugar so even after a fresh groom it just falls apart.  Need 6" asap😬 Come on snow!

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With this mid week’s whiff and the NWS officially removing all precip chances with the storm system, we now have zero precip chances the next 7 days (again).

And since there will still be no snow on the ground, every day is forecast to be above normal except Wednesday and Thursday.

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Where do we go from here???  I have opined that the LR pattern favors a central CONUS trough by Week 2 and this pattern should have legs through the rest of FEB.  The pattern over the N PAC, the LRC, the teleconnections and now the MJO forecasts are coming into alignment for a VERY favorable storm track, esp for the MW/GL's region.  I think later in the month those in the Plains have some opportunities but it'll be those across the eastern SUB that I foresee to benefit in the upcoming couple weeks of this month.  

Here's what I'm seeing...the storm track developing near and over the Aleutians cannot be scripted any better than what the models are currently showing.  From FEB 1st thru FEB 10th pretty much correlates a trough across the central CONUS and a slightly -PNA from mid to late month.  This will pretty much allow for the majority of our members to track  storms throughout this month, esp the later half where I could see some large scale storm systems.  Is the GHD storm just one of a few the have potential to develop into major winter storms?  Yes, I am convinced this month will deliver the goods.

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The majority of the global models are in remarkable agreement with the teleconnections...

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As for the MJO, kuddo's to the JMA for remaining lock rock steady...it has not backed down for a Phase 2/3 scenario...and wouldn't ya know it, the rest of the models are now seeing Phase 3.  I'll wait for the other models to load tonights data.

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Didn't I mention the EPS would correct towards the NE PAC ridge???  The model is coming around and the CFSv2 weeklies are forecasting that it remains a Long Term Long Wave pattern in this region for the entire month. 

This STRAT warming animation tells the story in the NE PAC...

temp10anim.gif

 

Speaking of which, the CFSv2 is painting BN temps right over the MW the next 30 days and a major shot of arctic air on the table by the 13th-15th.  I've seen a similar map before when we had the 2-week snow blitz in FEB a few years ago and it panned out.  My gut feeling a couple weeks ago I went out on a limb and stated that the next 2-4 weeks would produce a snowier pattern for the MW region appears to be leaning this way.  Something special is in the works...the snow holes will be filled...now, I'll go out on another limb...March roaring in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  It's going to Roar like never Before!  Hint: Remember the pattern in late DEC that brought a wave train of troughs that pounded the SW region.  Couple that with key blocking patterns and a slower jet stream that will allow storms to dig and explode in early Met Spring.  My goodness, my mind is running with scenarios wrt what MAR may have in store for our Sub.  

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Here we go! More hyperbole of never before seen weather for not only February, but even March too, and of course the standard braggart claims of being right about everything on every post as well!🙄 

Point of clarification for Nebraska posters, the "snow holes" that are going to be filled in by Mother Nature don't include Nebraska because Mother Nature finds the snow holes only in other parts of the country.

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Sitting at 47"ish inches on the year. 42"ish fell in December. 24" of that lost in the big melt down of Dec 15th. It was an incredible Dec. But at this point in the year  assuming models hold and no real snow through Feb 15th we will be well behind normal.

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We are below average here as well.  Long range has nothing for us.  That will change but I'm over it.  Big hits north, looks like all the big hits will go south now.  I'm ready for spring. 

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Took an in depth look into the LR data and it is supportive that a lot of winter wx is on the table this month.  The idea of a central CONUS trough is showing clear signs of developing along with a slightly -PNA.  If things pan out the way I'm thinking, there are going to be some happy members on here, esp those across the eastern Sub.  The target period after a brief lull in the pattern for the MW/GL's region, the period between the 10th-13th has my attn.  This, will then kick start a very cold and active back half of FEB and it SHOULD include more of our members out west.  Keeping hopes alive for winter to return for those out west.  There's a saying, "he who laughs last, laughs best"...

On this last run from the CFSv2, the notable correction for a central CONUS trough is pretty evident...hyper wave train is also very evident...nature is going to create an extremely volatile and active OHV/MW storm track.  Fun times lie ahead.

@Andie @OKwx2k4 you guys are going to be in the crosshairs of some volatile wx this month....btw, Welcome to 2-22!  Deuce's are wild!  On a side note, this months astrology features some crucial and powerful energies that are bound for our planet and one important date is on 2/22/22.

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Oh Canada....love that NE PAC ridge and slight SER...

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The model is certainly seeing the cold to infiltrate our Sub Forum...

 

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After last winter most Texans have armed up for light and warmth.  I have solar camping lights and charger for the phone. Have an in-line gas grill so we’ll eat but my better half must go to work as he’s part of emergency response for the Fleet.  He keeps the City Fleet on the road and fueled. Generators fueled for police and fire.  
 

I’m lucky. I have emergency response “training” from one of the best.  
However,  cold is cold and I don’t want a repeat.  
The drought has only complicated things with dry kill.  Tough on wildlife too.  
 

That said I think this may be the beginning of a lengthy pattern.  
What say you to that?

@TomNever liked Feb much. We get our ugliest weather then. Usually ice.  Deadly down here.  Not big on astrology. 😉

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While this is a look back at January I will post this in the February thread.

With January 2022 now in the books lets take a look and see how it turned out. At Grand Rapids the mean was 20.4 that is a departure of -4.6. It was the coldest January since 2014. The high for the month was 42 on the 19th and the low was -2 on the 26th There was a total of 25.8 of snow fall and the total precipitation for the month was 1.43” The most snow on one day was 8.0” on the 5th and the biggest snow event was 12.6” on the 5th and 6th the most snow on the ground was 11” There was at least 1” of snow on the ground for the whole month and there now has been at least 1” on the ground for 36 days in a row. So while this weeks snow event will miss Grand Rapids to the south and southeast we still over all have had a lot of winter weather this month.

 

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The problem with this winter hasn't been the cold, it's been great actually, the snow quality at all the ski hills I've been to has been exceptional this year. Which is a real treat given how poorly the season started out for them.

The problem, and maybe I'm just being greedy, is that there was no snow to accompany the cold. All we needed in Wisconsin was one or two more solid 4-8in storms in January to have made this winter an amazing season of snowmobiling, cross country skiing, skiing, snowboarding, etc.

I hope this sub 20 degree stuff can hang around for a few more weeks, it's extremely good for snowboarding and skiing. I've kind of accept this will just be a "drive the snowmobile around the lake" winters, glad I went for a big final ride last year to end the season.

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