Jump to content

February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

Recommended Posts

Took an in depth look into the LR data and it is supportive that a lot of winter wx is on the table this month.  The idea of a central CONUS trough is showing clear signs of developing along with a slightly -PNA.  If things pan out the way I'm thinking, there are going to be some happy members on here, esp those across the eastern Sub.  The target period after a brief lull in the pattern for the MW/GL's region, the period between the 10th-13th has my attn.  This, will then kick start a very cold and active back half of FEB and it SHOULD include more of our members out west.  Keeping hopes alive for winter to return for those out west.  There's a saying, "he who laughs last, laughs best"...

On this last run from the CFSv2, the notable correction for a central CONUS trough is pretty evident...hyper wave train is also very evident...nature is going to create an extremely volatile and active OHV/MW storm track.  Fun times lie ahead.

@Andie @OKwx2k4 you guys are going to be in the crosshairs of some volatile wx this month....btw, Welcome to 2-22!  Deuce's are wild!  On a side note, this months astrology features some crucial and powerful energies that are bound for our planet and one important date is on 2/22/22.

1.gif

 

 

 

2.gif

 

 

Oh Canada....love that NE PAC ridge and slight SER...

3.png

The model is certainly seeing the cold to infiltrate our Sub Forum...

 

4.png

5.png

 

  • Like 3
  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After last winter most Texans have armed up for light and warmth.  I have solar camping lights and charger for the phone. Have an in-line gas grill so we’ll eat but my better half must go to work as he’s part of emergency response for the Fleet.  He keeps the City Fleet on the road and fueled. Generators fueled for police and fire.  
 

I’m lucky. I have emergency response “training” from one of the best.  
However,  cold is cold and I don’t want a repeat.  
The drought has only complicated things with dry kill.  Tough on wildlife too.  
 

That said I think this may be the beginning of a lengthy pattern.  
What say you to that?

@TomNever liked Feb much. We get our ugliest weather then. Usually ice.  Deadly down here.  Not big on astrology. 😉

  • Like 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While this is a look back at January I will post this in the February thread.

With January 2022 now in the books lets take a look and see how it turned out. At Grand Rapids the mean was 20.4 that is a departure of -4.6. It was the coldest January since 2014. The high for the month was 42 on the 19th and the low was -2 on the 26th There was a total of 25.8 of snow fall and the total precipitation for the month was 1.43” The most snow on one day was 8.0” on the 5th and the biggest snow event was 12.6” on the 5th and 6th the most snow on the ground was 11” There was at least 1” of snow on the ground for the whole month and there now has been at least 1” on the ground for 36 days in a row. So while this weeks snow event will miss Grand Rapids to the south and southeast we still over all have had a lot of winter weather this month.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem with this winter hasn't been the cold, it's been great actually, the snow quality at all the ski hills I've been to has been exceptional this year. Which is a real treat given how poorly the season started out for them.

The problem, and maybe I'm just being greedy, is that there was no snow to accompany the cold. All we needed in Wisconsin was one or two more solid 4-8in storms in January to have made this winter an amazing season of snowmobiling, cross country skiing, skiing, snowboarding, etc.

I hope this sub 20 degree stuff can hang around for a few more weeks, it's extremely good for snowboarding and skiing. I've kind of accept this will just be a "drive the snowmobile around the lake" winters, glad I went for a big final ride last year to end the season.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Andie said:

After last winter most Texans have armed up for light and warmth.  I have solar camping lights and charger for the phone. Have an in-line gas grill so we’ll eat but my better half must go to work as he’s part of emergency response for the Fleet.  He keeps the City Fleet on the road and fueled. Generators fueled for police and fire.  
 

I’m lucky. I have emergency response “training” from one of the best.  
However,  cold is cold and I don’t want a repeat.  
The drought has only complicated things with dry kill.  Tough on wildlife too.  
 

That said I think this may be the beginning of a lengthy pattern.  
What say you to that?

@TomNever liked Feb much. We get our ugliest weather then. Usually ice.  Deadly down here.  Not big on astrology. 😉

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

I would get on the horn with the local government if it's going to rival last years. You remember how bad it was, correct? Or is this just more hyperbole?

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

With the record cold advancing so far south, effects were crippling and widespread. Many regions within the Southern Plains such as Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas broke or nearly reached record-low temperatures not seen in decades or even a century. In the latter state of Texas, the record cold caused enormous strain on the power grid and froze pipelines, leading millions to lose power and many pipes to burst. At least 278 people were killed directly or indirectly by severe cold,[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] and the damages are estimated to exceed $198.575 billion (2021 USD), including at least $197.075 billion in the United States and $1.5 billion in Mexico.[1][2][3]

  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I would get on the horn with the local government if it's going to rival last years. You remember how bad it was, correct? Or is this just more hyperbole?

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

Rival the weather impacts, not the devastation.  Nobody said this…only you are implying that I’m suggesting it could rival the devastation.  That is completely wrong.  Your being the hype here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First day to hit 60 in 2022 and mosquitos are out. 

Well, one anyway.

  • Like 1
  • lol 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

i saw a wasp on monday, here in nebraska 

I heard from a guy that goes to our church he saw some trees budding. Pretty bizarre winter; by far the warmest and driest in recent memory. Only other ones that come to mind is the winters of 2011-12 and 2012-13. We had a major blizzard in the December of 2012 winter at least. The 11-12 year we went into a major drought that summer. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Rival the weather impacts, not the devastation.  Nobody said this…only you are implying that I’m suggesting it could rival the devastation.  That is completely wrong.  Your being the hype here.

I'm the hype? Coming from the king of hype on here?!

You specifically mentioned last year and are saying 2 weeks away you think it could rival last year. What would make it different then? The Texas power grid isn't any better and even Andie has said that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm the hype? Coming from the king of hype on here?!

You specifically mentioned last year and are saying 2 weeks away you think it could rival last year. What would make it different then? The Texas power grid isn't any better and even Andie has said that.

My posts are not intended to hype anything.  It's rather amusing to me how my beliefs and predictions have such an impact to reel you in every single time.  Its amazing actually.

I guess it won't ever stop.  Oh well, that good ol' "ignore" button would be ideal right now...carry on! 

  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where do we go from here???  Is Round 2 in the works after a Lull??  Well, the exception will be the N GL's region where a clipper train is poised to set up but then around the 10th-12th the pattern turns ripe for a series of systems to train over the Upper MW/MW/GL's region.  The return of the Hudson Bay Vortex alongside a strong N Stream Jet will pave the way for PAC systems to ride underneath the "belly of the beast" up north.

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS illustrating the potential...the 0z EPS is nearly identical for the post 11th period...unfortunately, those out west it's not looking to good just yet.  I'm hopeful that towards the later half of FEB it'll pick up into the central Plains states.  In the meantime, the focus will remain where the pattern is ongoing as we speak.

3.png

 

0z EPS 5-day 500mb mean pattern looks like it wants to unleash the "Nanook from the North"...0z GEFS agree...

1.gif

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Tom said:

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

Thank you Tom!  I’ve forwarded this to my husband. He’s the City Fleet Manager that keeps responders on the road.  Keep me abreast of any developments, please.  
I’ve kept him informed through you guys and the NWS and the City was prepped very early as a result.  
 

Rain will turn over to ice around 3-4 pm today. Early going home traffic.  All City generators are kept topped off after last years Blast.  
Im ready here at home. If the power co is fool enough to go black, I’m ready.
 

Can’t believe we could have 2 of these this year but Mini Ice Age is introducing itself I suppose.  New normal?  

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I recorded 0.16" of rain yesterday and last night. The high here was 47. The snow depth is now down to around 1.5" and there are now some bare spots showing in places. At this time there is light snow falling with a current temperature of 27.  and there is around 0.2" of new snow on the ground. I have a feeling that here in the NW side of GR that there may not be more than a inch or so of new snow fall today. For those that like the snow and live to the south or southeast of GR I hope you enjoy your snow fall. If you live north or NW of Grand Rapids and like snow well better luck next time. For what it is worth it looks like Punxsutawney Phil seen his shallow even thru the clouds and there could be at least 6 more weeks of winter (maybe)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Tom said:

My posts are not intended to hype anything.  It's rather amusing to me how my beliefs and predictions have such an impact to reel you in every single time.  Its amazing actually.

I guess it won't ever stop.  Oh well, that good ol' "ignore" button would be ideal right now...carry on! 

Since I haven't experimented with that feature yet, what exactly does it do? 

That would suck if it actually hides your posts from said user.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Thank you Tom!  I’ve forwarded this to my husband. He’s the City Fleet Manager that keeps responders on the road.  Keep me abreast of any developments, please.  
I’ve kept him informed through you guys and the NWS and the City was prepped very early as a result.  
 

Rain will turn over to ice around 3-4 pm today. Early going home traffic.  All City generators are kept topped off after last years Blast.  
Im ready here at home. If the power co is fool enough to go black, I’m ready.
 

Can’t believe we could have 2 of these this year but Mini Ice Age is introducing itself I suppose.  New normal?  

It would seem to be pretty hard to get a mini ice age, when the US just had it's warmest December ever, we had 120 tornadoes in December from freaking Nebraska to Wisconsin, and last I heard the GL's were still unfrozen.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Where do we go from here???  Is Round 2 in the works after a Lull??  Well, the exception will be the N GL's region where a clipper train is poised to set up but then around the 10th-12th the pattern turns ripe for a series of systems to train over the Upper MW/MW/GL's region.  The return of the Hudson Bay Vortex alongside a strong N Stream Jet will pave the way for PAC systems to ride underneath the "belly of the beast" up north.

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS illustrating the potential...the 0z EPS is nearly identical for the post 11th period...unfortunately, those out west it's not looking to good just yet.  I'm hopeful that towards the later half of FEB it'll pick up into the central Plains states.  In the meantime, the focus will remain where the pattern is ongoing as we speak.

3.png

 

0z EPS 5-day 500mb mean pattern looks like it wants to unleash the "Nanook from the North"...0z GEFS agree...

1.gif

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.

 

So one big storm that hits southeast of KC to southern Michigan and a couple of stretches of clippers for the GL's is all we're going to get from this 2-4 weeks of "something really special"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.

 

So one big storm that hits southeast of KC to southern Michigan and a couple of stretches of clippers for the GL's is all we're going to get from this 2-4 weeks of "something really special"?

That timeline is still in play OmahaSnowFan, after this storm departs the pattern is set to reload right around the 10th-12th.  Those dates are still in play...your jumping the gun...many on the eastern side of this Sub will benefit some more.  After this storm, ORD is set to be above normal in the snow dept and that is a remarkable turnaround from the 6" we started off with to open JAN I believe it was.  My call is that ORD hits near between 25-30" by end of FEB.  That is about double from the current 16.2" season tally (not including this storms snowfall).  Gutsy call?  You can say so, but the pattern is ripe around here....not so much by you.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Since I haven't experimented with that feature yet, what exactly does it do? 

That would suck if it actually hides your posts from said user.

It came in good use during the Great War of 2017-2018 between Wisconsin and Nebraska posters on here. If you block someone, it just hides the posts from that someone.

Pretty sure one or two users still have me ignored from that winter on here...

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • lol 6

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It would seem to be pretty hard to get a mini ice age, when the US just had it's warmest December ever, we had 120 tornadoes in December from freaking Nebraska to Wisconsin, and last I heard the GL's were still unfrozen.

I’m just echoing what I’ve read from climatologists when they speak over the trend for next 50 yrs. 
All we can do is wait and observe.

One things for sure we’re going to get this deep ice visit and I’m reading of a 2nd around the 15th.  
Very unusual for us.   

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh252-306.thumb.gif.9846390862e3186cd3ec310c228abaad.gif

Feel ya. Bad thing about these big cold pushes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking nice around here with the brown ground!

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -14. North northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -16. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light northeast in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 6. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 34. South southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 16. North wind 6 to 13 mph becoming south after midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 47.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 23.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 16.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 48.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 28.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 56.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tom said:

That timeline is still in play OmahaSnowFan, after this storm departs the pattern is set to reload right around the 10th-12th.  Those dates are still in play...your jumping the gun...many on the eastern side of this Sub will benefit some more.  After this storm, ORD is set to be above normal in the snow dept and that is a remarkable turnaround from the 6" we started off with to open JAN I believe it was.  My call is that ORD hits near between 25-30" by end of FEB.  That is about double from the current 16.2" season tally (not including this storms snowfall).  Gutsy call?  You can say so, but the pattern is ripe around here....not so much by you.

Classic spin on your part. Something special is some clippers and one big storm in 4 weeks? Huh. You also seem to be ignoring the rest of the posters that are asking where's winter as well......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Classic spin on your part. Something special is some clippers and one big storm in 4 weeks? Huh. You also seem to be ignoring the rest of the posters that are asking where's winter as well......

I’ve stated over and over that the eastern sub would be benefiting more than the western parts.  I’ve also said that towards the later part of Feb there would be more opportunities out west.  
 

IMO, “something special” is when we are tracking systems and not staying underneath a Resilient Ridge or AN temp regime in Winter.  When you have cold temps and a snow pack that sticks around for days/weeks and doesn’t melt, that is real winter for me.  Feb is going to turn out to be one of the better months of Met winter in terms of cold and storms.  You’ll see.  Again, more so out here than the western Sub until possibly later in Feb.  You’ll prob be sitting on the sidelines it appears for a little while.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, someweatherdude said:

I'm in the western sub too.  I don't want to sit on the sidelines.  I want to be in the game. 

I would consider KC as being more central than western.  There will be more chances coming up between 10th-15th down there.  That -EPO looks strong in the Week 2 period and -PNA pattern bode well to fire up a storm track similar to this current storm.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'll admit that I sometimes find myself needing to blame someone when it doesn't happen for me.  Forecasters are an easy target.  I wanted to tell Gary yesterday to jump in a lake.  There's no one to take the frustration out on when the universe conspires to deprive you of one of the few things that brings you child-like joy.  Sucks. 

Your in an odd predicament living in KC due to family reasons and being a snow enthusiast.  I completely can see your frustration.  The gym is a great place to release your frustrations! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh252-306.thumb.gif.9846390862e3186cd3ec310c228abaad.gif

Wow...I Just created this same gif and was coming over here to post it and see you already did. Struck me the same...looks like the very same thing we just did. How strange.

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’ve stated over and over that the eastern sub would be benefiting more than the western parts.  I’ve also said that towards the later part of Feb there would be more opportunities out west.  
 

IMO, “something special” is when we are tracking systems and not staying underneath a Resilient Ridge or AN temp regime in Winter.  When you have cold temps and a snow pack that sticks around for days/weeks and doesn’t melt, that is real winter for me.  Feb is going to turn out to be one of the better months of Met winter in terms of cold and storms.  You’ll see.  Again, more so out here than the western Sub until possibly later in Feb.  You’ll prob be sitting on the sidelines it appears for a little while.

My reference was your post made in the middle of January calling the next 2-4 weeks something special. Now you’re saying through the end of February…. That’s not 4 weeks.

“Something special” normally means something memorable or different to most people. I didn’t realize you were simply talking about getting some snow and cold temps in the winter.

You also told the KC folks to expect at least 2 storms by the end of January. They got nothing.

I’m not sure how KC is central but Omaha is west either.

At any rate, keep forecasting and I’ll be here to keep asking where’s the snow since we can’t get any here.😉

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I guess this time we hope the models one week out have the snow up in northern Minnesota and then watch the suppression push it down to us.

lol...we can only hope, but that's my complaint. 72 hours out or less the models never shift towards us, only away from us. Never fails. And if I sound paranoid it's because I am...😄

  • lol 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...