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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

My reference was your post made in the middle of January calling the next 2-4 weeks something special. Now you’re saying through the end of February…. That’s not 4 weeks.

“Something special” normally means something memorable or different to most people. I didn’t realize you were simply talking about getting some snow and cold temps in the winter.

You also told the KC folks to expect at least 2 storms by the end of January. They got nothing.

I’m not sure how KC is central but Omaha is west either.

At any rate, keep forecasting and I’ll be here to keep asking where’s the snow since we can’t get any here.😉

 

I did predict 1 or 2 and was wrong but not really that far off.  GHD storm formed a day into Feb.  As I said before, the FEB 10th-15th is a period of action that would fit within the 2-4 week window back when my call was made in mid JAN.  Look, it’s not like most of the Sub is torching (except for your regions AN pattern) the past couple weeks.  The next 2 weeks will feature more interesting weather for most of us on here who like colder and snowier weather.

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It’s no fun when you have family working out there as I do.  
My husband is Emergency Management and Fleet Ops.  
This puts him in the middle of it along with his dept.  
So not happy.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 minutes ago, Andie said:

It’s no fun when you have family working out there as I do.  
My husband is Emergency Management and Fleet Ops.  
This puts him in the middle of it along with his dept.  
So not happy.  

I'm praying for their protection and that they were able to process and prepare adequately. It's "Go time" now regardless.

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4 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I'll admit that I sometimes find myself needing to blame someone when it doesn't happen for me.  Forecasters are an easy target.  I wanted to tell Gary yesterday to jump in a lake.  There's no one to take the frustration out on when the universe conspires to deprive you of one of the few things that brings you child-like joy.  Sucks. 

I understand how you feel. I'm being blessed tonight for the first time in 6 years with what i love. I didn't even want to talk about the weather anymore this season, but here we are.

Hsng in there buddy. I get it. I get sad without snow. It reminds me of all the "good stuff".

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1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm praying for their protection and that they were able to process and prepare adequately. It's "Go time" now regardless.

Thank you. 
They’re a dedicated bunch. They literally saved the city emergency services when all power went out. 
it ultimately fell to 3 men. My husband and 2 very skilled tanker drivers.  
They got commendations.  
I was just glad they were safe.  
 

We have a similar situation. 
We’re being alerted to power failures from .25”-.75” of ice build up on power lines.  
I’m all charged up with back up batteries, solar camping lights, and a way to cook and gas fireplace. .  Maybe we’ll dodge the bullet. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The LR machine learning model that Dr. Cohen uses is not looking warm for the eastern CONUS.  Pretty much lining up with the same temp pattern that has been ongoing since JAN.  Cold is going to be locked.  Good read for those interested.

Quote

In addition to the behavior of the PV, I do think that persistence is becoming more important as we transition into February providing momentum to the dominating temperature and probably precipitation anomalies of recent weeks.  That would include cold and snowy weather east of the Rockies in North America and parts of East Asia including China and Japan, mild and/or snowless in the Western US, for much of Europe with some exceptions including Scandinavia and the Eastern Mediterranean and much of Asia but especially Northern Asia including Siberia.  The places that have been cold and snowy this month, eastern North America and parts of Central and East Asia are regions that our research has identified as relatively cold during and following stretched PV events.

The PV intrusions will be making a visit and I gotta funny feeling some of the coldest air of the season is heading our way for those who missed out on the earlier arctic outbreaks back in JAN when there was no snow OTG across the MW/Lower Lakes.

Screen Shot 2022-02-03 at 1.52.15 AM.png

 

 

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JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 are pretty much in agreement with the GEFS and GEFS extended....

Week 2....

2.png

Central CONUS trough/cold...looks rather moist...

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

Y202202.D0212_gl0.png

 

Week 2-4...this is prob a clue that the western parts of our Sub turn colder/wintrier...

3.png

You can barely see there is a ribbon of BN anomalies right over the MW/Lower Lakes...a clue that the model is likely seeing a lot of snowfall. 

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

 

This model has been handling the MJO hands down the best over the past couple weeks.  Every model corrected towards the JMA and heading into Phase 3.  Bundle up.

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

 

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This is pretty impressive - even for the dead of winter. One thing I don't get is no Wind Chill Advisory for DSM etc.-- though OMA has one -- and not even close in current wind chils- DSM near -20F -- OMA -15F and it's been constant 5F off all night. Maybe the OMA NWS has a different spectrum of Advisory wind chills deal?? Who knows- they have had a crappy winter and probably felt like issuing "something" - enough- But I do find it odd no Wind chill advisory for C.IA  (DSM) when it's much closer to the threshold of -20F for an advisory than OMA.  Maybe the climate is changing in OMA and not DSM??   :O) Just a rambling /..

image.thumb.png.6d101607ab5e25b16de4ac0fc91754a9.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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To my point above- no WC advisory for DSM but for OMA?? It should be the other way around. Splitting brass tacks some might say?? While-- many schools and busniess base their deals (limited) on what the NWS says. It still feels the same- but for many that just go on graphics alone- a disservice done -- unless OMX and DMX have different levels of wind chill advisory criteria which I doubt HIGHLY. --- but maybe I'am bored and need to find another hobby :O)

image.thumb.png.c1346f2c4da6d9386b896cbfd3d59e51.pngimage.thumb.png.70b0399f476f4a5b2e084232bed9e2ac.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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And just to be clear-- I understand forecasters make errors-- like we all do in life. But why not do an updated WC advisory for the morning communte in the DMX area?>  Until 9AM or so??  Conditions have been meant since the updated AM  AFD-- but I guess- since I failed DIFF CALC- my thoughts dont matter.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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temp at mby has dropped to -6F-- wind chill -25F. This after the NWS "updated" the grids to a low of -1F at 3am. "and we look at models for snow at 72 hours ( even closer)  like "certain"--- not happening. Mother nature dictates. Computer models - not try and die.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What a sharp cut off of yesterdays snow fall. The official reading at GRR was 5.1" I live about 15 miles NW of the airport and I recorded just 3.1" I am about 22 miles SE of the Muskegon airport and they only reported 0.4" of snow fall. This morning there is now 5" of snow on the ground here at my house and I now have a temperature of 17 with cloudy skies.

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Well, 21* at 7am. Not as bad as first feared. 
2” of ice and sleet. A little snow. We have another hr of sleet/snow and it will pass. 


It’s a first responder kinda day. No one else on the road this morning.  
Only 22,000 without power statewide. Better than expected.  Ercot knew it better not fail. 😄

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I really think we get warm, wet and active this spring throughout the Plains/Midwest.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 are pretty much in agreement with the GEFS and GEFS extended....

Week 2....

2.png

Central CONUS trough/cold...looks rather moist...

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

Y202202.D0212_gl0.png

 

Week 2-4...this is prob a clue that the western parts of our Sub turn colder/wintrier...

3.png

You can barely see there is a ribbon of BN anomalies right over the MW/Lower Lakes...a clue that the model is likely seeing a lot of snowfall. 

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

 

This model has been handling the MJO hands down the best over the past couple weeks.  Every model corrected towards the JMA and heading into Phase 3.  Bundle up.

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Looks like the GFS is trending towards the JMA way of thinking with the MJO staying in phase 3.  I think there will be some big warm ups ahead of some of these storms down my way but hopefully they stay brief.  GFS hitting at our next artic outbreak as well, this map may be a few days early with it.  I've been looking forward to this one.

 

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

0d40d5_f4228b0717804ee28b7bad49e7dd5867~mv2.webp

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

Just what we need, another reason for food to get more expensive.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

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Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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It's been wet!! Raining for nearly 24 hours straight. It was lower 40's when I went to bed and 37 now.

Close to an inch has fallen. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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20 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

We don't go longer than a week without rain since I came to Kentucky. And I hear winter is the driest time of year. 

Probably two years worth of rainfall in Klamath Falls fell here since mid-November.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

This farmer friend of mine is not a person who ever shows much emotion or worries.  Yesterday he was generally concerned.  This lack of moisture is just potentially another expense for farmers who are already struggling.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

Texas is very much a part of that drought.  It’s going to wreck every crop from hay to cotton. 
The moisture from this ice and snow will barely help my yard.  Nothing for the fields really.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

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Just love this view out behind the house on a cool drippy late winter day. Makes it look like I live in the woods but just a random hill by my street. ;) 

IMG_4847.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

There are ways to plant a nutrient crop to overturn back into the soil.  Numerous ways exist that can get away from chemicals.  Seed can be developed to be resistant to various fungi and produce hearty crops.  There are solutions without chemicals.

I made my career developing recycling and reclaiming chemicals methods to reuse in clean ways or return to their original process in a closed loop. We did it for big paint companies.   Big Chem Cos. didn't like us but it's the future. Spent a lot of my career being threatened in one way or another.  But the world is committing ecocide and if we don't learn how to preserve this beautiful planet, we are doomed in so many ways.  Sorry for the preach, but this is so important.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Here is where the major reporting stations stand after yesterdays snow fall in Michigan. Grand Rapids had 5.1" yesterday. For the season 50.7" that is a departure of -1.5" for the season. At Muskegon 0.4" yesterday, 36.8" for the season a departure of -23.5" Lansing 13.3" for the season 36.8 a departure of +6.1" At Detroit 6.2" yesterday 25.4" for the season a departure of -0.3. At Flint 11.0 and for the season 40.4" +9.3. At Saginaw 4.5" for the season 26.3 a departure of -3.8. To the north Alpena just a trace for the season 42.7 a departure of -1.7. Sault Ste Marie 0.3 yesterday and for the season 95.7 a departure of +15.6. Gaylord yesterday trace for the season 72.8" a departure of -20.9. Traverse City a trace fell yesterday and for the season 67.9 a departure there of +2.6. Petoskey a trace yesterday and for the season 61.9 a departure of -22.0. And at Marquette 0.1" fell yesterday and for the season 113.9 a departure of -0.4. So there was not much snow fall north of a Grand Rapids to Saginaw line and for the season there are locations both above and below average as of this date.

I am still waiting to see how the models  that are now is use handle a system like we had in 1967,1978 or even 1973. The snowfall total maps for the most part are way off and they were once again for yesterday but they did a good job on the sharp cut off.

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