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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pushing -40 at the "ICE BOX" of the lower 48- KINL's record is -40 in 1982 for this date.

image.thumb.png.92d7ad910a96495a3d9bf2fc8ee80b24.png

You looked an hour too soon.  KINL got down to -42.   KBDE got down to -34.  Wind was noticeably absent all night, which of course helped the radiational cooling to reach those lows. Highs close to 0 now for a 40 degree temp rise in about 7 hours.  

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We’re heading for a low of 14.  Humidity is 75%. We’ll stay cloudy till Saturday.  High tomorrow will crack freezing at 33*.  
The wind chills around No Tx are single digits.  
 

Husband put in a full day of Emergency Fleet management and another day ahead.  No one else came in.  😂  He had the joint to himself.  But Police and Fire were grateful.  
Fun times!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Next shot of snow chances look to come by end of next week. Something to keep an eye on.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 2/2/2022 at 2:02 PM, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh252-306.thumb.gif.9846390862e3186cd3ec310c228abaad.gif

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

I agree bud, this looks like a brusher, perhaps an inch near the border and nothing near or north of Detroit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

I'd gladly take a wet spring.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave for at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is bearing that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, same, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

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12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave fur at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is besring that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, sane, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

Sorry about the typos.

Yeah, this one is pretty special for the year.

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I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

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7 hours ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

Man o man. That drought is a growing bummer.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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In the last hour the temperature has dropped from +2 to 0° there remains 5″ of snow on the ground. Officially at the airport there is 6.0″ reported on the ground. For February since 1894 the average snow depth at Grand Rapids is 4.9″ In that time there have been only 8 years with no snow on the ground the last time was in 2020. The most on the ground on February 4th is 20″ and that was in 1959. There was 18″ on the ground on this date in 2014 and 2011 and 1904. Last year there was 2″

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

@Niko looks like Greece has seen some unusual winter wx...ice forming in parts of the Mediterranean Sea?  Wild Stuff.

https://electroverse.net/sea-freezes-in-greece-arctic-blast-sends-u-s-nat-gas-futures-to-record-highs-covid-narrative-crumbling/

 

 

There is a first time for everything I guess....😅

Crazy weather going on there.

Look at this unreal: Athens, Greece

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ5d1UxXoAg5U7k?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

Praying this verifies.  Looks more and more like we have been missed with moistue about as much as any place in the nation since the Fall.  

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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

So here's the scorecard for how much snow we've had this winter season. Not for the faint-hearted if you live in the central part of the country.

Screenshot 2022-02-04 at 08-48-50 National Snowfall Analysis - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information.png

Just had a tear come to my eye.  Abysmal.  Not good when Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and others have had more snow than Central Nebraska.

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I take it others have it worse than I do. My first impression from Ashland KY is that we've seen bigger events.

About 1/4" of white and hardly any ice. That rain was so heavy it took forever to switch. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

Hi Tom, thanks for the long range update

Here in KC, the last 32 days, it's actually been below average on temps and above average on snow. Here in my part of KC, I have had 7.8 inches of snow since Jan. 1st in (3) separate storms. 

After a 10 day lull, the real active part of the LRC is coming, we must score with that.  Let's hope for 2-3 more storms just like the one we had this week. That storm was massive!!! Beautiful winter scene here in KC. Snow piles, snow packed roads, and 2 degrees this morning. True winter conditions. Love it!!

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My 7th grade boys assistant basketball coach is a farmer.  We had a road trip yesterday about 45 minutes away, so on the bus we were talking about the weather and the horribly dry fall and winter so far.  He said that a family friend of his on Wednesday night had some cattle get out and a couple were hit on Highway 183 north of Holdrege.  He went to check the electric fence, but it was working fine.  After more checking, he said that the cows touched the electric fence, but since there is no moisture in the ground, they were not grounded.  Some of the cows just walked right through the electric fence.  This farmer said in all of his years he had never seen anything like this, and it is as dry as he can ever remember.  This farmer is in his 70's.  

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Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

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17 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

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