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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

The key is any time you see the word cycle or LRC referenced, you just ignore it.  You will be much happier. 

Please LRC followers/believers can we have just one concrete example from past weather that a LRC forecast has verified?   

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Currently 5° with mood flakes. Another frigid morning with -6° on my way into work. 

Looks like I ended with about a quarter inch of fluff. Now a special weather statement popped up on my phone for blowing snow with 20-35mph wind coming in. Could be an interesting drive up 35 to the TC later.

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56 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

You're semi-correct. Thats all.

There's a "something" to it, but its far from perfect. It requires a lot of work and a heck of a human memory.

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A nice burst of snow is moving through Cedar Rapids.  It's the first snow I've seen since mid January.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One of the only positives of this almost completely snowless winter, is we have not had to worry about road conditions.  My son plays on the 10 grade and JV basketball teams which is a total of 37 games.  Along with my coaching, we will have 47 basketball games.  With only 2 weeks left in the season, no games have been postponed or cancelled and no travel issues coming or going to games.  I promise this has never happened before in all the years I've gone to games as a fan or coach in the winter. 

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31 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yes. Beautiful scene in the south edge of Cedar Rapids. The snow is light but coming down decent. Won’t amount to much but it’s fun to look at. 

At the peak the flakes were a good size and the rate was moderate.  I picked up a quarter inch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest Euro is showing nothing but 30s and 40s here once today and tomorrow are past, and it shows another big surge of mild air moving in by day ten.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So, finally went out to take a measurement (was waiting for the snow to stop completely, which it did late last night)....anyways, could have been a lot more, but I will take whatever Ma Nature provides.....9" Total!

 

Snowfall Tally.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like KDWU totaled over 2.2" precipitation in 24 hours. That was our wettest event up to this point since meteorological winter started. Not to say there haven't been others this wet, Jan 1st was a great soaker too.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It was snowing pretty good here at times this afternoon. I'd say we got about half an inch. First measurable snow since January 15! 

I sure hope we can get at least 1 or 2 more good snowstorms around here, but the models don't look good. If it's not going to snow, let's just move on to spring and get some heavy rain and thunderstorms around here.

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

Here’s what I propose.  To all the “LRC” believers, please start a separate LRC thread next fall/winter season (which i hear will start in August this year 😉) when you think you got the cycle figured out (will it be 45, 50, 60, 1,293 days???) and update it throughout the winter to keep track of things.  Think that’s the best way to show us all just how accurate and effective it is.  Thoughts?

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6 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

The key is any time you see the word cycle or LRC referenced, you just ignore it.  You will be much happier. 

Please LRC followers/believers can we have just one concrete example from past weather that a LRC forecast has verified?   

 

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

Yeah I’ve been here long enough AND follow weather closely enough that I’ve NEVER heard anyone talk of “alternating” cycles or whatever Lezak is claiming now. Not even the people who use the LRC here.

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

 

Yeah I’ve been here long enough AND follow weather closely enough that I’ve NEVER heard anyone talk of “alternating” cycles or whatever Lezak is claiming now. Not even the people who use the LRC here.

I don't have any strong feelings about this subject either way, but Lezak has talked about alternating cycles in past years. I almost mentioned it when we were having our warm, dry December. Doesn't Jim Flowers talk of a 30-day cycle? Maybe folks should just ignore posts they have no interest in.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I personally won't believe there is anything to this so-called LRC until I see it on CNN, MSNBC or another trusted news source.

They were just talking about the LRC On fox and friends this morning so it’s got to be true. That’s about as trusted as you can get.

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Oh my god corny lame boo, tomato tomato tomato, I’m throwing tomatoes 

From OAX: 

The City of Lincoln's 3.7" of snow is the least amount for a fall/winter season to date on record. 

Our records go back 75 years.

430EF9DE-0EA9-4F7A-9CE4-BDE454BECF1F.jpeg.78f90c25b50d3ed15b16c9e20a476a63.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I don't have any strong feelings about this subject either way, but Lezak has talked about alternating cycles in past years. I almost mentioned it when we were having our warm, dry December. Doesn't Jim Flowers talk of a 30-day cycle? Maybe folks should just ignore posts they have no interest in.

Jim talks about 30 day cycles. Now he even talks about 15 day cycles.  Lezak talks about 42, 48, 55, and this year 61-66 day cycles. And now cycles that are the same yet different bc one is wet and one is dry.

Moving the goal posts as they say.

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The models did a good job with the clipper that just moved through last evening.  Had a few good bursts of heavier snow showers that rolled on through laying down another measurable snowfall (0.4").  Temps are dropping quickly behind this system.  Nice lil refresher.  The top layer has a "bumpy" look to it from the larger flakes that fell from the last wave.  @Tony @FV-MikeDid you guys get about the same?

1.gif

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I recorded just under a half inch of new snow fall here at my house and there is still 5" on the ground. Last nights snow makes it look very much like winter this morning.  The overnight low here was +2 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was +5. At this time with cloudy skies it is +6 here at my house.

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21 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

Don't worry about pissing some people off, there are a few that just want to be miserable.    Anyway it's usually a good sign there will be a storm when the EC and GFS show a storm in the same general area at the same time.  Hopefully we will get some blocking and some cold air into the middle part of the country so some on here can get a nice snow.  The MJO looks good but the AO and NAO look terrible atm.

EC is the warmer solution atm

1645056000-YCwGT0ws5Xg.png

GFS is colder and resembles the Oct 10th/11th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_52.png

Either way I'm sure this will stay south and east of Omaha where surely no snow will ever fall again.

EPS is warmer GEFS is more bullish

1645272000-A30pbkK6kgU.png

 

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS and Australian MJO.  I wish the AO and NAO looked this good.

0d40d5_c889e30b2e7049c6bb7597ff046b9d27~mv2.webp

Timing, timing, timing…the AO/NAO sure picked an ideal time to spike!  Craptastic…either way, there will likely be a storm to track after this lull in the pattern for your area.  Thankfully, the EPO will be playing ball.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Don't worry about pissing some people off, there are a few that just want to be miserable.    Anyway it's usually a good sign there will be a storm when the EC and GFS show a storm in the same general area at the same time.  Hopefully we will get some blocking and some cold air into the middle part of the country so some on here can get a nice snow.  The MJO looks good but the AO and NAO look terrible atm.

EC is the warmer solution atm

1645056000-YCwGT0ws5Xg.png

GFS is colder and resembles the Oct 10th/11th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_52.png

Either way I'm sure this will stay south and east of Omaha where surely no snow will ever fall again.

EPS is warmer GEFS is more bullish

1645272000-A30pbkK6kgU.png

 

Don’t forget the rest of us Nebraska posters that haven’t seen anything either! Even that map screws over everyone west of Omaha and Lincoln 

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Don’t forget the rest of us Nebraska posters that haven’t seen anything either! Even that map screws over everyone west of Omaha and Lincoln 

All jokes aside I hate seeing any area miss out, even worse I don't want to see anyone in the heartland have to go through a drought this summer.  That is no good for anyone financially.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Don't worry about pissing some people off, there are a few that just want to be miserable.    Anyway it's usually a good sign there will be a storm when the EC and GFS show a storm in the same general area at the same time.  Hopefully we will get some blocking and some cold air into the middle part of the country so some on here can get a nice snow.  The MJO looks good but the AO and NAO look terrible atm.

EC is the warmer solution atm

1645056000-YCwGT0ws5Xg.png

GFS is colder and resembles the Oct 10th/11th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_52.png

Either way I'm sure this will stay south and east of Omaha where surely no snow will ever fall again.

EPS is warmer GEFS is more bullish

1645272000-A30pbkK6kgU.png

 

Also, not sure if it was a typo, but if the storm on 2/2 was somehow related to 10/2, then how is a storm on 2/17 related to a storm on 10/10?

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10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Also, not sure if it was a typo, but if the storm on 2/2 was somehow related to 10/2, then how is a storm on 2/17 related to a storm on 10/10?

If there was a storm this week, it would be related to whatever storm they chose from whenever time ago.  make sense?

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Also, not sure if it was a typo, but if the storm on 2/2 was somehow related to 10/2, then how is a storm on 2/17 related to a storm on 10/10?

 

13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Also, not sure if it was a typo, but if the storm on 2/2 was somehow related to 10/2, then how is a storm on 2/17 related to a storm on 10/10?

2 cycles at 65 days.  10-10 to 2-17 is 130 days

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11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Jim talks about 30 day cycles. Now he even talks about 15 day cycles.  Lezak talks about 42, 48, 55, and this year 61-66 day cycles. And now cycles that are the same yet different bc one is wet and one is dry.

Moving the goal posts as they say.

I say we propose a 365-day cycle that resets every year (366 days in leap year). Amirite? 😁

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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4 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

If there was a storm this week, it would be related to whatever storm they chose from whenever time ago.  make sense?

But there is not a storm in the middle of the country, it will have been 2 weeks from the storm that just hit to the possible storm on the 17th.

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

@Beltrami Islandthis should help out the trails up north...

1.png

Nice clipper indeed with snow falling since morning. A few hours yet to go. Probably going to be more like 2-4 inches versus the inflated 6" kuchera numbers.

Trails here were already in mint condition really. Other than one stretch of trail near resorts there really isn't the traffic here to beat up trails to badly once there is a base. Areas near @Madtown really need the fresh snow to hold up to the traffic.

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54 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

2 cycles at 65 days.  10-10 to 2-17 is 130 days

But then how does 2/2 equate to 10/2?

I’m not trying to be a d*ck or pick on you  bc this isn’t your hypothesis, but you see how “sketchy” this idea of a storm that is supposed to now be the every other cycle of a repeating cycle of a long term pattern, also then matches up with a pattern one week later in October but is now 2 weeks later in February?

10/2-2/2= 123 days

10/10-2/17= 130 days

 

 

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