February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Bellona]

It's been so long since I was in a tornado warning and a winter storm watch lol...maybe some day again. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Bellona
Misspelled

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Hello 80s!!!

[Grizzcoat]

Probably won't happen- but never seen a -50F departure in the lower 48 - that's insane.

[Grizzcoat]

Grand Forks, ND today had a high of -10F which is a record min max for the date. And not your typical record breaking min max, but in moderate snow most of the day.  Also- I-Falls is on pace to have a top 5 coldest ever (recorded) Jan/Feb. That's impressive - but missing is 1936 which was epic. Currently - tied with 2014 (the chart only shows through the 20th- i have calculated through the 21st) and 1897 has a "M" FEB - so throw that out.  These are some serious winters in the ICE BOX and to be around the heavy hitters this late in the game is impressive. With NWS forecast of a mean of around -8F to -10F for the reminder of FEB, I-Falls should easily move into the TOP 5.

[Tom]

Up, up and away we go... to the top of the atmosphere...it is looking likely that there will be a 10mb temp reversal taking place over the Pole during the next 10 days....a reversal from the cold 10mb temps is apparent on nearly every model....that's going to leave a mark and not the good one...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LR GEFS still on the same page as the Euro weeklies that right around the 4th/5th the central SUB shall reap some rewards of white gold...

Hmmm, late season -NAO's do more damage than good if your looking for warmth up near the MW/GL's region...trends in the EPS are starting a trend....

 

If you use the 10mb Strat animation below, a warming trend is beginning up in NE Canada/South Greenland of late...that is exactly where we saw blocking show up in the 1st cycle of the LRC...interesting...let's see if this LR signal works out by mid MAR...

 

[westMJim]

Most of the snow cover here is now gone all that is left is some snow in the woods and of course the snow piles. The overnight low here was 31 and at this time with a light cold rain falling it is 34. It now looks like the next week or so will be cold but not much in the way of any snow. The 30 year average mean for the last 3" or more snow fall is February 27th (note the latest was April 19th 2019 so yes it can happen) so we are now at the time of year when the chances of big snow events are less likely. 

[Clinton]

Big change here from the 70's yesterday to frz drizzle this morning.  Feels like March has already started.

[tStacsh]

Grand Rapids is at 62.2" of snow this winter   2" Below average for the date.  Interesting stat here

Muskegon is at 44.9".  (30 miles away from GR).  Holland Michigan is at 70.3"   Lake effect is funny.

All these cities are within 30 miles of each other.    What's crazy is the difference between Holland and Muskegon.

Both on Lake Michigan 25 miles apart.  Muskegon is more north yet has seen over 2 feet less snowfall than Holland.   I guess a more NNW wind has been the predominant Flow off Lake Michigan this winter.  Which is why temps remain slightly below average for the winter here.  Less lake influence.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Currently at 7:45 AM, -2 with a wind chill of -26 and north winds gusting to 35 MPH with light snow blowing around.  That's what I'm talking about.  Kind of looks and feels like the winter we have missed.  Take what we can get at this point.

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Currently at 7:45 AM, -2 with a wind chill of -26 and north winds gusting to 35 MPH with light snow blowing around.  That's what I'm talking about.  Kind of looks and feels like the winter we have missed.  Take what we can get at this point.

Winter made a return…too bad this storm missed your area and I’m hopeful you can get something from the next one.  Watch, in March you end up getting blasted!

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Winter made a return…too bad this storm missed your area and I’m hopeful you can get something from the next one.  Watch, in March you end up getting blasted!

Was just talking about this yesterday with a friend.  Over the years, March has produced some of the biggest storms/blizzards that this region has ever seen.  Hoping for a slow moving, moisture filled storm or storms.

[gimmesnow]

Currently 30 here, coating of ice on everything. My local ski hill closed for the second time in the last 7 days in the middle of February. I assume they lost the base on the top of the hill since they called closing for today late last night. Don't believe I've ever seen it this bad, it's going to be cold enough to make snow tonight and tomorrow so hopefully they do and just don't call the season this early. Normally they try and make it to the second week of March or St Patrick's Day, but they've closed as early as President's Day before, their earliest was Valentines Day. Usually they give up after President's Day, as that's their last busy weekend.

It's a sad winter when they can't even keep the place open with man made snow in the middle of February. Still haven't been able to ride my snowmobile.

If the base is this bad this early in the season, I'll be lucky to make it to the end of the first week of March given the early warmth we're going get. March snow or anything isn't going to help, the base is gone and natural snow, even if we got a huge storm, like 12 inches, compacts a ton when it grooms out.

PV switch is lining up perfectly with them shutting down for the season on the 6th. This is easily the worst season I've ever had snowboarding in the last 12 years. December was a bust with warm temps, January was the only good part. After the ski hills close down, any winter weather is a waste as it just stops me from doing spring/summer outdoor activities. It's going to be a long spring of doing nothing but sitting in front of the computer and playing video games.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I guess March coming in like a lion means warm and dry just like the savanna they live in.

[snowstorm83]

Coldest day since Jan 1st, still in the single digits. 12z GFS/Euro already has Lincoln back near 60 by the 28th. 

[jaster220]

"I live in Wooden Shoe" LOL

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
644 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NNW WOODEN SHOE VILLA 44.00N 84.37W
02/22/2022  E0.25 INCH       GLADWIN            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES BEING REPORTED ACROSS
            PARTS OF GLADWIN, ARENAC AND IOSCO COUNTIES
            AS A RESULT OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND FALLEN
            TREE LIMBS OVER POWER LINES.

 

[Andie]

Well, 40 right now heading for 24.  

High tomorrow of 32 with freezing drizzle, freezing rain.  That means black ice.   
The street crews started today pretreating but we shall see.  No sleet or snow it seems to warn stupid drivers.  Plenty of those.  
 

Thursday a repeat including freezing drizzle.  Man, am I tired of this winter.  
I just want out of it without any damage to us or the cars.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

We better be careful here or otherwise we're going to zoom right past the 10" mark for snowfall this season!

Thursday

Snow likely, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Tom]

The GEFS have done a great job predicting the 10mb Strat forecasts into the LR.  I started paying attn when I saw a couple individual op runs suggesting a possible PV Split scenario.  I didn't bite until now as the Euro Op is suggesting a possible split at both 10mb/50mb in the early days of MAR.  It certainly would not be "par the course" as to how this season has transpired but if we do end up seeing a PV split in a season whereby the PV has been consistently stretched/elongated...then, I guess, nature has other plans...expect the unexpected. 

 

 

 

0z EPS...whoops!

 

 

0z GEFS showing the final STRAT warming event of the season on the way and will set the stage for some late season high lat blocking...#PVDislodged

[Wheezer]

PV has a long way to go

 

 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! 
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 46.6 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.4 m/s 1989 
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 46.4 m/s 2011

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Wheezer said:

PV has a long way to go

 

 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! 
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 46.6 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.4 m/s 1989 
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 46.4 m/s 2011

Sure does but a displacement can end up doing more in terms of the wx patterns for N.A. than a “true” major SSW event.  

 

[westMJim]

While not much more than a trace or so there is a covering of new snow on the ground here and there is light snow falling at this time. With that light snow falling it in now 21 here.

[OmahaSnowFan]

ROAR!!!

[Hawkeye]

39 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

ROAR!!!

Last night's Euro and this morning's Canadian are also teasing 70s in that period as well.

[james1976]

45 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

ROAR!!!

Was just popping in to say local met has me pushing 50 late next week but they may need to bump that up. Fire up those grills!

[westMJim]

Marquette reported 21.6" of snow yesterday and are now reported 50.5" for February and are now up to 164.3" for the season. Note that the NWS office for Marquette is west of the city of Marquette.

[Andie]

DFW is sitting at 24*  Humidity 66%  Dew at 19

There's scattered patches of freezing drizzle, mostly east right now,  but thus far nothing to get worked up about.

It may build up later this evening but if we don't see anything by morning, it's a false alarm. 

That's cool with me.  It's just hard to say.

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

 Fire up those grills!

Already been doing that throughout the winter in Lincoln lol 

[Andie]

So, after todays “rehearsal” and false alarm we apparently have a 90% chance of freezing rain in the morning.  
Okay. We’ll see.  
 

Meantime, Oklahoma had some nice thunder sleet. Caught it on the news. Maybe Clint will weigh in on that later.  

[Tom]

@JudahCohen chiming in on his thoughts of the PV...mind you, he wrote this about 3 days ago when the models just began to sniff out the idea of a PV disruption.  He may be changing his tune now.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Meantime, the JMA weeklies have come in and are suggesting a wintry look for Week 2 from about the I-80 corridor on north.  This lines up quite well with both the GEFS/EPS as the modeling have all suddenly flipped Bigly with high lat blocking and a potentially lucrative pattern for snow production across our western/central Sub as Ol' Man Winter says....nasso fast!

Week 2...wet/cold = backloaded winter in progress....

 

0z GEFS...

 

[Madtown]

-21 this am

[westMJim]

The overnight low here was 13 with clear skies. The ground here is mostly snow free now so it could have gotten colder if there was snow on the ground. It looks like most areas will end February near to below average in the temperature department (Grand Rapids has the best chance of below average temperatures) As of 2/23 here is the run down Grand Rapids a mean of 24.4 a departure of -1.6. Muskegon a mean of 26.3 a departure of -0.8 Kalamazoo 26.2 a departure of -0.2 Holland 26.3 a departure of -0.5 and to the east Lansing a mean of 25.8 a departure of +0.5. Snow fall is above average for February at Lansing and Grand Rapids but well below average at Muskegon. Kalamazoo and Holland do not keep snow fall records

[Beltrami Island]

Just another day in paradise....

[OmahaSnowFan]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

@JudahCohen chiming in on his thoughts of the PV...mind you, he wrote this about 3 days ago when the models just began to sniff out the idea of a PV disruption.  He may be changing his tune now.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Meantime, the JMA weeklies have come in and are suggesting a wintry look for Week 2 from about the I-80 corridor on north.  This lines up quite well with both the GEFS/EPS as the modeling have all suddenly flipped Bigly with high lat blocking and a potentially lucrative pattern for snow production across our western/central Sub as Ol' Man Winter says....nasso fast!

Week 2...wet/cold = backloaded winter in progress....

 

0z GEFS...

 

Wait, I thought March was going to come roaring in like a lion?

[snowstorm83]

LNK did not officially pick up any measurable snow a couple days ago (I had maybe 1/4") and I highly doubt anything will accumulate today. This will be the first February since 1996 with only a trace of snow. Other years are 1922, 1946, 1977, and 1991. Though all other years mentioned except 1922 had non-terrible snowfall elsewhere in the season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[bud2380]

Euro showing highs in the 60s+ for a large part of the area on March 4th.

 

[tStacsh]

20 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro showing highs in the 60s+ for a large part of the area on March 4th.

 

It's hard to buy anything the models are showing in the long range.  GFS flips flops every run.  From extreme cold, to warm ups, to average.   

[CentralNebWeather]

Look at the % of normal precipitation. Just abysmal. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

It's hard to buy anything the models are showing in the long range.  GFS flips flops every run.  From extreme cold, to warm ups, to average.   

The first week of March has been very consistent for days now on the models. At least out this way. The only thing that changes is whether it's 50s, 60s, or 70s.