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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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On 2/23/2022 at 7:36 AM, Wheezer said:

PV has a long way to go

 

 

The strat. vortex is currently stronger than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! 
The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 46.6 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.4 m/s 1989 
Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 46.4 m/s 2011

Cancel that "quick spring"....that's incredible.

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On 2/23/2022 at 7:48 AM, Tom said:

Sure does but a displacement can end up doing more in terms of the wx patterns for N.A. than a “true” major SSW event.  

 

Wait til severe wx season this year. As the Nuge would say, "YOWZA!" Lol.

 

I believe 2013 was the best example of this and then the anomalous November 2014 wave. There's some interesting stuff coming in the longer ranges of weather and in climate overall.

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Sooooo LNK will still be at 3.7" for the season indefinitely. Lowest season is 7.2" in 1967-68, and even using Ken Dewey's records back to 1900, 67-68 is still the winner. This is downright scary if you ask me. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Feb 24th low in I-Falls,MN = -40F. The latest occurrence of -40F in recorded history for KINL. Climate change / AGW is not happeing in N.MN in as this JAN/FEB is top 5 ever coldest ( recorded)  for much of N.MN.image.thumb.png.8c75010a261ecdbf422443b542cc8079.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I posted this on a private forum (N.MN SPortsmen) --- but what is happening in N.MN is remarkable in this day and age of AGW.

Latest -40F on record for I-Falls. This AM (2/25) is also very close. Jan/Feb for I-Falls is currently in the Top 5 coldest ever recorded through 2/24 at -2.4F for avg temp. Back to back below 0F avg temps monthly are a rarity - even for I-Falls. BRUTAL winter in the Northland. Snow depth is running near 2-3' on avg for the Northland. An early ice out is not likely--- Enjoy the weather - it's the only weather you got.

Hibbing, MN is having coldest Jan/Feb ever recorded - though its record only goes back to the early 1960's.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Sooooo LNK will still be at 3.7" for the season indefinitely. Lowest season is 7.2" in 1967-68, and even using Ken Dewey's records back to 1900, 67-68 is still the winner. This is downright scary if you ask me. 

Horrible.  It is really hard to get missed this many times, but here we are.  You'd think we'd luck into one storm.  Nope.  

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12 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

You guys will probably end up getting at least a little bit more snow.  But to put it in perspective, KC's lowest snowfall total ever is 3.9 inches in 2011-12.  It would be crazy if you end up lower than that.  

Things look promising in the extended, but they have looked promising in the past and nothing materialized.  I'm in Central Nebraska sitting at 7" for the season.  Trying to find records that date back as long as Lincoln is difficult.  

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I left town last week on Friday to go to Ft. Lauderdale with the wife and kids. Left a dense snowpack on Friday last week to arrive at 84 degrees. I left 84 degrees on Wednesday afternoon this week to return to 18 degrees yesterday and snow. 

It's actually been winter in KC the last few months. (5) storms have hit  overall, since Jan. 1st, KCI is average to above average on snowfall. I'm actually on the NE side of KC(15 miles from the airport, Liberty area) and I have had 17.9 inches of snow so far this season. This includes the overachiever yesterday of 1.6 inches(my house, the airport came in at 8/10ths of an inch) 

Even with the big warm-ups, KC, since January 1st, is actually below average on temps and above average on snow. WOW!!! Feb. will go in the books as below average on temps and well above average on snow. 

Dropped to 2 degrees this morning with a fresh snow cover. Beautiful winter scene. I'm enjoying it as this time of year the ole sun angle can destroy a snow pack quite fast. Plus, this snow event has very low moisture to it, most will evaporate today.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Things look promising in the extended, but they have looked promising in the past and nothing materialized.  I'm in Central Nebraska sitting at 7" for the season.  Trying to find records that date back as long as Lincoln is difficult.  

Very active stretch of LRC cycle 3 will continue through mid March, I'm thinking you get hit once or twice. Now, if you get hit with snow, that usually means KC is in the warm sector of the storm and we get rain. I would gladly sacrifice a rain storm for you to get a snow storm. I think your chances are pretty good of at least (2) storms in the next 15 days. 

Good luck!!!! 

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Very active stretch of LRC cycle 3 will continue through mid March, I'm thinking you get hit once or twice. Now, if you get hit with snow, that usually means KC is in the warm sector of the storm and we get rain. I would gladly sacrifice a rain storm for you to get a snow storm. I think your chances are pretty good of at least (2) storms in the next 15 days. 

Good luck!!!! 

Thanks.  I see those storms on the extended, and March is usually good for a big storm or two around here.  But with this winter, hard to not be pessimistic that they will fizzle or go around us.

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4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Feb 24th low in I-Falls,MN = -40F. The latest occurrence of -40F in recorded history for KINL. Climate change / AGW is not happeing in N.MN in as this JAN/FEB is top 5 ever coldest ( recorded)  for much of N.MN.image.thumb.png.8c75010a261ecdbf422443b542cc8079.png

Tell me you don't understand the definition of Climate vs Weather, without telling me you don't know.  

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Feb 24th low in I-Falls,MN = -40F. The latest occurrence of -40F in recorded history for KINL. Climate change / AGW is not happeing in N.MN in as this JAN/FEB is top 5 ever coldest ( recorded)  for much of N.MN.image.thumb.png.8c75010a261ecdbf422443b542cc8079.png

Definitely proof if northern Minnesota was really cold for a couple months one year😉

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A few degrees warmer than yesterday morning... 

If it wasn't for December relative warmth, this year would be very comparable to 2013-14. 

13-14 cold pattern set up in early December up here.  By the time the "POLAR VORTEX" drifted down south after Jan 1 that winter, all of us up north had been experiencing similar cold departures from averages for 3-4 weeks.  

IMG_20220225_072940884_2.jpg

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Looks like the AO is going to try to go negative, or at least neutral.  NAO may be inching back toward neutral.  MJO may be heading toward phase 6, which seems to not be good.  Any other thoughts on the teleconnections and what to expect the next couple of weeks?

Atm looks like the panhandle and vicinity low pressure pattern we've been seeing,  will continue into at least the first 10 day of March.   Meaning, most of the appreciable and  flooding rains will be in the midwest , Ohio Valley and Tennessee valleys, eventually the northeast.  Still don't see a lot of qpf for you guys in the plains states, during this stretch.   Hope that can change

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You can cherry pick days when the US has a lack of snow OTG and those that when it does have snow.  Yesterday, 48.8% of the nation had been covered by snow (2/25 06 UTC).  This map will update within a few hours...I understand this map is not necessarily a real accurate portrayal but it is only a "snapshot" of a day in time.  I believe this map also takes into count a lot of the sleet/ice that fell in the S Plains/MW.  I'm curious to see how much this changes for the updated map later this morning.

1.jpeg

 

The official 3.1" of snow that fell yesterday at ORD has brought the seasonal avg up to 28.6".  That is about 2" shy of the seasonal avg to date and +3" for the month.  Quite a reversal since early JAN and the lackluster start.  Meantime, MDW (only a few miles to the SE) has had 18.1" of snow this month (+8" for the month) and about 38" (+6" of normal) for the season.  The lake and storm tracks have benefitted the southern tier of the metro so far this season.

We had full sun earlier in the day yesterday and with temps in the mid/upper 20's the high ratio snow was getting nuked pretty quickly.  I already have spotty areas with grass showing up.  I'm sure by end of today and most likely by tomorrow the snow cover will be history.  

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie...does this confirm what transpired down by you?  Aren't you on the north side of Dallas?  I got a cousin that lives in the metro and will ask him if it was as bad as they say.  

https://www.fox4news.com/news/ice-forms-on-north-texas-roadways-people-urged-to-stay-home

 

 

No. I’m south west of Dallas. I’m in the far SW corner of Tarrant Co where Ft Worth is.  On the corner of 4 adjoining counties.  
Thurs was a surprise for the area East and North of us.  Black ice roller rink stuff.   
Thank heaven that’s behind us.  We don’t do ice so we’ll as our neighbors to the north! 
 

The rain missed us today too.  
We’d better get used to that. This drought will last.  Have you  heard any long range forecasts on that yet? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yes please.

This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 42. South southwest wind 9 to 13 mph.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 19. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 51. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 24. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 65.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Friday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
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This has been one snowy February here in S MI (Detroit Metro Area) where 20.1"  of snow has fallen this month. Not too shabby at all.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Went for another snowmobile ride today. Gotta say I underestimated how much snow we have. 24-30" snow depth pretty much everywhere in my area. If it wasn't so flat around here I could probably post a pic and get away with tagging it as somewhere in a primary les belt. 

Funny thing is all the snow is bottomless powder, haven't had a thaw since mid December when it all started piling up. This caused going down untouched forest roads difficult, some spots I was going full throttle and struggling to keep momentum. First pic is a spot where I had to help my dad get unstuck. Pretty much had to do circles around him to give his tank of a sled some packed down snow to have a shot of getting turned around. 

Second pic is a picnic table covered in the seasons snowfall

IMG_20220226_141503759.jpg

IMG_20220226_123725003.jpg

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Even thought the official high at Grand Rapids was only 29 yesterday (I had a high of 33 here) the full late February sun sure did the trick on the snow that was on the ground. Areas that are in the shade are the only ones that now have a snow cover. Areas that were in the sun yesterday now have a lot of bare ground showing with just the snow piles still there. The overnight low here was 26 before midnight and it held steady around 28 all night. At this time it is partly cloudy here and 30.

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On 2/24/2022 at 11:54 PM, snowstorm83 said:

Sooooo LNK will still be at 3.7" for the season indefinitely. Lowest season is 7.2" in 1967-68, and even using Ken Dewey's records back to 1900, 67-68 is still the winner. This is downright scary if you ask me. 

Oh my bad LNK picked up 0.1" on Thursday LOL

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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