February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Grizzcoat]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Just brutal cold up in the Northwoods this past Sun morning...

I-Falls and much of N.MN having a very cold first 45-46 days of 2022. I-FALLS (with a very good climo record well over 100 years) is currently running in the top 10 coldest Jan/Feb in recorded history. One most throw out 1897 as it has missing data. So in the last 100 years -- only 5 Jan/FEB's thus far have been colder. Being it was -27F this AM at I-Falls and currently 0F--- they clearly have overtaken 1912. Impressive to say the least.

I-FALLS top ten coldest JAN/FEB

[indianajohn]

On 2/11/2022 at 8:08 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Like this one? Watching it gives me chills!

 

You go to places in Montana,Dakotas etc… they have gates that close the highways… I have driven 94 during a LES event and it goes from sunny to zero visibility in seconds… they should close that stretch during these events

[Grizzcoat]

And Hibbing,MN right now #1. Climo only goes back to the early 1960's, but still, very impressive.

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

You go to places in Montana,Dakotas etc… they have gates that close the highways… I have driven 94 during a LES event and it goes from sunny to zero visibility in seconds… they should close that stretch during these events

Iowa has cattle gates that shut down entries to  I-35-- at least N of DSM when the going gets tough.  I've taken back routes to and from the Twin Cities on HWY 169 and it's actually kinda of fun if you prepared and not willing to make time.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Winter fail.

[james1976]

2" of fluff last night up in Vadnais Heights. By the time I got south of the TC there was no fresh snow. Good snowpack up there (several inches maybe 6+). I think MSP might be slightly above normal snowfall so far this season?? Been a good winter for the northern sub.

[Grizzcoat]

14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Winter fail.

Not so much in the true N. I used to do some forecasting for Lutsen Mtns ski resort back 5-10 years ago. The cold this year has previous patrons asking when enough is enough. Not so much the snow, but the cold there is certainly something to reckon with. It's amazing how down the winter has been in NEB etc,, but just to the  N in  N.MN how much it changes. ALso--- the drought that is evident now in NE-- it happened last year in S ONT/ N.MN which lead to the fires of last summer, it seems the pattern has shifted this precip deficit into NEB and the Central Plains. Grand Forks is having a great year for snowfall, last year was like Pierre,SD.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not so much in the true N. I used to do some forecasting for Lutsen Mtns ski resort back 5-10 years ago. The cold this year has previous patrons asking when enough is enough. Not so much the snow, but the cold there is certainly something to reckon with. It's amazing how down the winter has been in NEB etc,, but just to the  N in  N.MN how much it changes. ALso--- the drought that is evident now in NE-- it happened last year in S ONT/ N.MN which lead to the fires of last summer, it seems the pattern has shifted this precip deficit into NEB and the Central Plains. Grand Forks is having a great year for snowfall, last year was like Pierre,SD.

Can we shift it someplace else next year?  

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Winter fail.

This kind of statistic is as useless as when, for a brief period some years, there is snow on the ground in all 50 states.  As a snapshot, this probably map I would predict with a dominant ridge in the west and a NW flow over the northeastern 2/3 of the CONUS.  If it were an el nino I would expect the STJ to undercut the western ridge and possibly lead to a storm or  two to lay down some wet snow over the south central/southeast states.

[snowstorm83]

7 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

This kind of statistic is as useless as when, for a brief period some years, there is snow on the ground in all 50 states.  As a snapshot, this probably map I would predict with a dominant ridge in the west and a NW flow over the northeastern 2/3 of the CONUS.  If it were an el nino I would expect the STJ to undercut the western ridge and possibly lead to a storm or  two to lay down some wet snow over the south central/southeast states.

True as well, one day doesn't show the whole picture. Still a mediocre winter at best outside of a few areas though, terrible in many spots. 

[tStacsh]

17 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

This kind of statistic is as useless as when, for a brief period some years, there is snow on the ground in all 50 states.  As a snapshot, this probably map I would predict with a dominant ridge in the west and a NW flow over the northeastern 2/3 of the CONUS.  If it were an el nino I would expect the STJ to undercut the western ridge and possibly lead to a storm or  two to lay down some wet snow over the south central/southeast states.

A lot of places are well under average this year in Michigan.  73 percent of the nation had snow cover last Feb 16th.  That's crazy.  

[Andie]

72*, Sunny, windy, 18mph.  

Tomorrow the same but Thunderstorms mostly overnight, wind about 22 mph. 

Wednesday rain early, high of 52.   Its acting like Spring but way too early for that. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

This kind of statistic is as useless as when, for a brief period some years, there is snow on the ground in all 50 states.  As a snapshot, this probably map I would predict with a dominant ridge in the west and a NW flow over the northeastern 2/3 of the CONUS.  If it were an el nino I would expect the STJ to undercut the western ridge and possibly lead to a storm or  two to lay down some wet snow over the south central/southeast states.

the idea being that for the middle of February, snow cover in the US sucks.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Your weekly "sunny with nothing of consequence forecast" for Omaha.

I love the look of those 50s and a 60 though...

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Light east northeast wind becoming east southeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. South wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 28.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 15.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 52.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 53.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 34.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 61. Breezy.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Washington's Birthday

Partly sunny, with a high near 55.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco.  Maybe there is some hope next week.  Heard that before, haven't we?

Glancing beyond our official 7-day forecast into next week:
Some definite uncertainty abounds here, but if anything the latest
ECMWF EPS ensemble is suggesting a return to a predominantly
colder temperature regime next week (especially beyond Mon), with
highs perhaps prevailing more in the 30s (possibly 20s). There are
also early hints of MAYBE a more active pattern for much-needed
precipitation (perhaps as early as the 22nd-24th time frame), but
the cynics in the crowd will rightfully point out that we`ve been
"teased" by model projections of winter storms for our local area
beyond a week out several times already this winter that didn`t
pan out. The bottom line is that there are at least OPPORTUNITIES
for more active weather next week, and all it will take is one
decent system to remind us that there is still plenty of late-
winter/early spring left to at least make a dent in our pronounced
"snow drought".

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings morning disco.  Maybe there is some hope next week.  Heard that before, haven't we?

Glancing beyond our official 7-day forecast into next week:
Some definite uncertainty abounds here, but if anything the latest
ECMWF EPS ensemble is suggesting a return to a predominantly
colder temperature regime next week (especially beyond Mon), with
highs perhaps prevailing more in the 30s (possibly 20s). There are
also early hints of MAYBE a more active pattern for much-needed
precipitation (perhaps as early as the 22nd-24th time frame), but
the cynics in the crowd will rightfully point out that we`ve been
"teased" by model projections of winter storms for our local area
beyond a week out several times already this winter that didn`t
pan out. The bottom line is that there are at least OPPORTUNITIES
for more active weather next week, and all it will take is one
decent system to remind us that there is still plenty of late-
winter/early spring left to at least make a dent in our pronounced
"snow drought".

The 12z models looked good for Neb to get a good amount of moisture, I have my fingers crossed for you guys.
 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The 12z models looked good for Neb to get a good amount of moisture, I have my fingers crossed for you guys.
 

Thanks. Just assume every storm will miss us, and unfortunately, that is what has occurred. 

[jaster220]

On 2/13/2022 at 8:11 PM, jaster220 said:

LOL. If any of you were jealous of my headline, don't be. I didn't get 3 or 4 tenths here, let alone 3 or 4 inches. 

 

It's not like The Plains snow drought, but I've been missed N, S, and now East! 

Yesterday here was a joke, yet just about 6 miles to my NE, this was happening:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1139 AM EST MON FEB 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     SNOW             2 WSW WOLVERINE LAKE    42.55N 83.51W
02/13/2022  M3.0 INCH        OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 PM     SNOW             3 N LIVONIA             42.44N 83.38W
02/13/2022  M6.0 INCH        WAYNE              MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            5 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. REPORTED FROM RETIRED NWS
            EMPLOYEE.

0706 PM     SNOW             2 N LIVONIA             42.43N 83.37W
02/13/2022  M5.0 INCH        WAYNE              MI   PUBLIC

            6 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0709 PM     SNOW             4 NE LIVONIA            42.43N 83.32W
02/13/2022  M5.3 INCH        WAYNE              MI   PUBLIC

            6 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

[Bellona]

Put this on the wrong thread first. How far south do you think this one goes??

[jaster220]

42 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Put this on the wrong thread first. How far south do you think this one goes??

March storms?

[Madtown]

Living. 3-4" expected tomorrow 

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Living. 3-4" expected tomorrow 

I know that bridge!  Looks epic up there...enjoy the beautiful scenery....

[Tom]

Well alrighty then....last night's Euro Weeklies just flashed the biggest flip yet this Winter....I see a snow Blitz coming down the piper...MAR coming in like Lion this year...our Lone Star State of TX ain't see the last of Winter just yet...

[Tom]

One last post, if the Euro Op and GEFS are right in terms of the 10mb STRAT warming...it'll have Big implications to how the pattern sets up in MAR...let me just say, it's not looking very "Spring" like...head to FL or the SW if you wanna see warmer temps for the 1st half of MAR.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Last year to now. Our school was on its 4th snow/cold day in two weeks. This year nothing. 

 

[Grizzcoat]

^^^^^

NWS is suspect at forecasting at times, but they sure suck at proof reading graphics before they post it. Broken Bow has 97F difference if  my math is correct. Must be something in the water in NEB as OMX is really bad also.

[GDR]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

One last post, if the Euro Op and GEFS are right in terms of the 10mb STRAT warming...it'll have Big implications to how the pattern sets up in MAR...let me just say, it's not looking very "Spring" like...head to FL or the SW if you wanna see warmer temps for the 1st half of MAR.

 

Nothing but dry cold air, I can’t wait!! I’m so excited, I just can’t hide it!

[Clinton]

Warm and windy today, going for a high in the mid 60s with 40mph winds.  Red flag warning in effect.

[westMJim]

I recorded just over one inch of new snow fall here early last night. This was a fluffy lake effect snow and was very easy to clear off the driveway this morning. There is now 6" of total snow on the ground there at my house with about 3" of light fluff and 3" of very hard back snow. Officially for the month of February Grand Rapids is now at 12.3" and for the season GR is now at 57.9" that is still -2.3" below were GR should be on February 15th. Today will be the 52nd day in a row of at least 1" of snow on the ground at GR and it will be the 62nd day of at least 1" of snow on the ground this winter season (Nov to today) At this time it is cloudy and 19 here at my house.

[Wheezer]

The late FEB early march  extreme cold shot shown on GEFs can only happen if the MJO tropical forcing treads water in phase 3 the rest of FEB pumping a -EPO.  If not , if it makes it to 4 during the last week of FEB , the outcome would be much different

[Tom]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Last year to now. Our school was on its 4th snow/cold day in two weeks. This year nothing. 

 

I forgot how brutally cold it was out west compared to over here.  We still had it very cold but nothing like your region.  It felt like living in Alaska, esp seeing it snow in subzero weather.  Quite the experience!

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I recorded just over one inch of new snow fall here early last night. This was a fluffy lake effect snow and was very easy to clear off the driveway this morning. There is now 6" of total snow on the ground there at my house with about 3" of light fluff and 3" of very hard back snow. Officially for the month of February Grand Rapids is now at 12.3" and for the season GR is now at 57.9" that is still -2.3" below were GR should be on February 15th. Today will be the 52nd day in a row of at least 1" of snow on the ground at GR and it will be the 62nd day of at least 1" of snow on the ground this winter season (Nov to today) At this time it is cloudy and 19 here at my house.

Your experiencing quite the stretch of winter conditions.  What is the mood of the locals in your area?  Or their opinion  on this winter?

[tStacsh]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Your experiencing quite the stretch of winter conditions.  What is the mood of the locals in your area?  Or their opinion  on this winter?

I think most are sick of it.  While it hasn't been extreme cold, it's been cold and dull.  The snowpack has been around a long time, no thaw this year, should melt a lot of it tomorrow before it snows again.  I think people here get depressed by the cloudiness from Lake MI and the lack of a thaw.  It's so much different than the rest of the Mid-West.  At least when it's cold you all get some sun.  Not here.   I believe Muskegon is near the top in America's cloudiest places in the winter.  So if it's gonna be winter, I think people want plenty of snow at least.  That hasn't really happened.  Been pretty much just a blah winter. 

And knowing winter lasts until late April now is even worse.  Though last year was much better in March.   

[westMJim]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

Your experiencing quite the stretch of winter conditions.  What is the mood of the locals in your area?  Or their opinion  on this winter?

The mood for the most part varies. There has been snow on the ground since December 27th 19" of snow fell in the 1st 6 days of January, there was a long period of very little snow fall before over 5" fell on February 2nd The reason the snow has held around was that the 2 biggest events of 8" and 5.1" were not lake effect thus wetter snow that with the colder than average temperatures were able to hang on longer. So with not much snow falling on a daily bases (that can happen here with lake effect) the winter as a whole has seemed rather mild. But that said I work at the top two entertainment venues in west Michigan and I think that most of the people that I come in contact with are ready for spring.

[gimmesnow]

10 hours ago, Madtown said:

Living. 3-4" expected tomorrow 

That's beautiful. I still have my sled on my trailer lol. I started siphoning the fuel out of it to put into other vehicles right now since there's not enough snow on the lake to ride and the next storm looks to be going south again. I need a cheap cabin up in the UP really bad.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Thankfully Texas is coming out of the last of the brutal cold that rivaled last year’s disaster.

Oh wait, it was in the 70s the last several days….

[OmahaSnowFan]

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS with lots of storminess in the extended.  You would think we could score at least one storm.  We'll see.

[Hawkeye]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I think people here get depressed by the cloudiness from Lake MI and the lack of a thaw.  It's so much different than the rest of the Mid-West.  At least when it's cold you all get some sun.  Not here.   I believe Muskegon is near the top in America's cloudiest places in the winter.

Our coldest days in winter are almost always full sun.

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS with lots of storminess in the extended.  You would think we could score at least one storm.  We'll see.

This will be some big cutters.  The western plains and the north should score well.  Lower Lakes will be Morch like.