February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Hawkeye]

Models seem to be in decent agreement there will be a initial wave next week that dumps decent snow from the Dakotas to the northern lakes.

After that, models are rather chaotic. 

[Tom]

This should be a Fun Finish For FEB....S MW/Lower Lakes Battle Zone...

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

a year ago tonight, the temp fell to -23.8 on my thermometer, but on the Ambient weather station network I follow that has other weather stations online, one of the stations fell to -31.0 a couple miles west of me.

The 16th was the last of the brutal 10 day stretch of cold here when the temps finally began to warm up.

[Tom]

@Andie....a little late, but it won't be denied...Arctic Blast heading down deep into TX the way the pattern is setting up for Week 2...I see a multi-day storm brewing for TX/OK late month.  Not sure how far it penetrates towards DFW but a couple cold days on the table along with ICE will not be so NICE.   

 

"Blue Norther" showing up for the central Plains...

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

32 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Andie....a little late, but it won't be denied...Arctic Blast heading down deep into TX the way the pattern is setting up for Week 2...I see a multi-day storm brewing for TX/OK late month.  Not sure how far it penetrates towards DFW but a couple cold days on the table along with ICE will not be so NICE.   

 

"Blue Norther" showing up for the central Plains...

10 days away just like the last time. @AndieI wouldn't worry too much yet.

[CentralNebWeather]

33 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Andie....a little late, but it won't be denied...Arctic Blast heading down deep into TX the way the pattern is setting up for Week 2...I see a multi-day storm brewing for TX/OK late month.  Not sure how far it penetrates towards DFW but a couple cold days on the table along with ICE will not be so NICE.   

 

"Blue Norther" showing up for the central Plains...

No snow cover in Nebraska or much of South Dakota may lessen the severity.  All depends on if we get some snow before this, then watch out.

[Timmy Supercell]

[snowstorm83]

48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No snow cover in Nebraska or much of South Dakota may lessen the severity.  All depends on if we get some snow before this, then watch out.

Lots of possibilities for the last week of Feb into early March. There's nothing that can salvage this winter as a whole, but it would be better late than never. I have a hard time believing LNK will end the year with such a crazy low amount of snow, so hopefully I'm not proven wrong lol. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

No snow cover in Nebraska or much of South Dakota may lessen the severity.  All depends on if we get some snow before this, then watch out.

No doubt about it, snow will be the missing ingredient…

[GDR]

We all must prepare just look at the gfs WOWZA!!

[Hawkeye]

66º in Lincoln this afternoon.

[CentralNebWeather]

47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

66º in Lincoln this afternoon.

Gosh, I was a frigid 53. Winter 21-22 in Nebraska. 

 

[centralweather44]

1 hour ago, GDR said:

We all must prepare just look at the gfs WOWZA!!

Looks about right for Lincoln. 4.3”? By then it will be to 0.0. We are back to spring landscaping jobs. I’m over the snow. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Warm and dry almost everywhere 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Grizzcoat]

Most would agree that an avg daily temp -10F or +10F (or greater) is significantly cold or warm relative to avg

#of days DSM recorded a daily avg temp double digit below/above -- this winter thus far-

DEC   2021---   # above = 13   # below = 0

JAN  2022 ---  # above  = 4    # below= 10

Feb 2022 thus far --- # above= 2  #below 5

will be adding some more below over the next few weeks it seems

 Winter thus far -15 below - 19 above-

2022

15 below 6 above.

If DSM can avg -5F compared to normal over the next 13 days (rest of FEB) the winter as a whole will be a wash in the temp department. Quite the comeback after a torch of DEC 21'. It will be close, but doable.

 

[james1976]

Currently 39. Local met has 51 for a high Sunday. If it isn't gonna snow might as well see some spring temps.

[Tom]

49 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Most would agree that an avg daily temp -10F or +10F (or greater) is significantly cold or warm relative to avg

#of days DSM recorded a daily avg temp double digit below/above -- this winter thus far-

DEC   2021---   # above = 13   # below = 0

JAN  2022 ---  # above  = 4    # below= 10

Feb 2022 thus far --- # above= 2  #below 5

will be adding some more below over the next few weeks it seems

 Winter thus far -15 below - 19 above-

2022

15 below 6 above.

If DSM can avg -5F compared to normal over the next 13 days (rest of FEB) the winter as a whole will be a wash in the temp department. Quite the comeback after a torch of DEC 21'. It will be close, but doable.

 

Gone is the Blow Torch…the gates of the Arctic will open….hopefully some of those out west can score some white gold in this colder pattern that has been long awaited.

[Tom]

@Clinton, it appears we may be on the verge of a snow blitz?  Thoughts on this?  Plenty of cutters on the table through next week into MAR.

[Clinton]

@TomIf the artic air stays close enough to be taped into.  March 3-5th is the time period I'm looking forward to for a large widespread snow.  Late next week is interesting also.

[tStacsh]

Beautiful 48 degrees this morning.  Birds are chirping.  Snow staying south tomorrow.  40's again next week.  Spring is coming!

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@TomIf the artic air stays close enough to be taped into.  March 3-5th is the time period I'm looking forward to for a large widespread snow.  Late next week is interesting also.

The way the blocking is setting up and the reversal of the -PNA should do our Sub some good.  I wouldn’t mind seeing some more snow through the 1st week or so of MAR.  After that, I’m in warm wx mode…I really don’t see a nice Spring up near the GL’s this year.  There will be some warmer periods but I’m concerned for that pesky Block to develop in NE Canada that is a devil in the Spring months.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

The way the blocking is setting up and the reversal of the -PNA should do our Sub some good.  I wouldn’t mind seeing some more snow through the 1st week or so of MAR.  After that, I’m in warm wx mode…I really don’t see a nice Spring up near the GL’s this year.  There will be some warmer periods but I’m concerned for that pesky Block to develop in NE Canada that is a devil in the Spring months.

I would prefer for it to warm up the second week of March to achieve a good growing season.  Hope we get some widespread moisture between now and then esp in the dry areas.  Severe weather season will be wild down my way imo.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I would prefer for it to warm up the second week of March to achieve a good growing season.  Hope we get some widespread moisture between now and then esp in the dry areas.  Severe weather season will be wild down my way imo.

Absolutely, I think this Spring/Summer will surprise some on here with good moisture.  I also see a good signal for a lot of Derecho’s/MCS’s.  Upper MW may bake again this year.  Should be a good growing season for our ag belt region.  Before we get ahead of ourselves, March is going to be wild in terms of storms, severe wx, etc.

[Grizzcoat]

Ouch.

 

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Ouch.

 

Geez whats the coldest ever temp for Texas?

[Grizzcoat]

^^^ those are departures from normal, not actual temps.--

 

But Texas all time low is -23F.

[Grizzcoat]

and the all time low of -23F is not where you would think it would be,, like Dalhart or some place like that in the way North. (Dalhart btw gets brutal in the winter for TX's standards, near -10F every winter -- most can't say that this forum).

It's here at latitude 32N- crazy low latitude for -23F outside serious elevation which it is not-

[Hawkeye]

If the later part of February was expected to be warm, the latest models haven't gotten the word.

Unfortunately, not only is it looking cold, but it's also looking like there may be little snow for my area.  Models are generally suggesting the first snow event will miss north, then everything else will miss south into early March.  Ugh.

[Hawkeye]

We are not going to make it to 50º like a few models suggested.  We only made it to 47º when the front came through in the last hour.  The temp is now falling.

[Clinton]

Next week looks active across the northern plains

[bud2380]

36 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

If the later part of February was expected to be warm, the latest models haven't gotten the word.

Unfortunately, not only is it looking cold, but it's also looking like there may be little snow for my area.  Models are generally suggesting the first snow event will miss north, then everything else will miss south into early March.  Ugh.

Based on the models recent performance, we can totally expect this storm to shift south, right?  The last 2 storms showed eastern Iowa getting hit hard only to both miss south.  So since it now shows Minnesota getting hit hard, I completely expect that in a few days, that snow band will be right over top of us down here...

[CentralNebWeather]

31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Next week looks active across the northern plains

Gotta hope that continues to come south.  Many models are keeping most of it north of here.  Nothing would surprise me after this winter.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Gotta hope that continues to come south.  Many models are keeping most of it north of here.  Nothing would surprise me after this winter.

Or at least get some rain anything would help your area.  At least there are a few chances of precip showing up.  I mentioned a storm in early March, that one could right a few wrongs in the precipitation department.

[CentralNebWeather]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Or at least get some rain anything would help your area.  At least there are a few chances of precip showing up.  I mentioned a storm in early March, that one could right a few wrongs in the precipitation department.

This next system looks extremely cold.  Any snow we get would by dry, I'd assume.  We need a warmer system, rain/sleet/snow.  We used to get those all the time.  Have to hope March can deliver.  

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^^ those are departures from normal, not actual temps.--

 

But Texas all time low is -23F.

thanks for the correction. I was thinking that had to be a bit off 

[jcwxguy]

 

Lol se Nebraska and western Iowa.

[bud2380]

I think by tomorrow we could start a thread for the next system.  Right now it appears it has SD and MN in it's crosshairs.  Fairly active pattern setting up though and cold still hanging around.  

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

 

Lol se Nebraska and western Iowa.

I saw that.  It is like a recurring bad dream.  Hard to make this up as it happens over and over again.