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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^^ those are departures from normal, not actual temps.--

 

But Texas all time low is -23F.

We get some off the hook weather.  So many weather systems clash here and things begin to rock and role.   
Wind is another factor that you might look at. I’d be interested in the highest straight line recorded winds.  

I’ve seen it reach the high 100 teens.  Blistering grass and plants.  Then as low 0* in my life that I recall.  Just a wide breadth of extremes.  
There’s no such thing as typical Texas weather.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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One of my pet peeves in the weather is when the local media says " only in your state" does such temp extremes happen .---  Only in IA does the temp change 50F in one day. Only in Texas and on and on. It happens in 49 states - Hawaii maybe the exception. But the media likes to make you feel that your location/state is special -- It's NOT. Some more locations more than others--- ND to SC, I get it, but drastic temp changes are very common.  ND ( North Dakota )  btw - for those that don't know has a higher max temp 121F-- than Texas of 120F. That's insane. Dust bowl. Go figure. And both North Dakota's max- 121F and -60F happened within 5 months of each other. Climate was changing hard core in 1936!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

One of my pet peeves in the weather is when the local media says " only in your state" does such temp extremes happen .---  Only in IA does the temp change 50F in one day. Only in Texas and on and on. It happens in 49 states - Hawaii maybe the exception. But the media likes to make you feel that your location/state is special -- It's NOT. Some more locations more than others--- ND to SC, I get it, but drastic temp changes are very common.  ND ( North Dakota )  btw - for those that don't know has a higher max temp 121F-- than Texas of 120F. That's insane. Dust bowl. Go figure. And both North Dakota's max- 121F and -60F happened within 5 months of each other. Climate was changing hard core in 1936!!

Most local media meteorologists are primarily actors with very basic knowledge of meteorology. They always play stuff up too, first snow of the winter, first warmth, first rain, etc.

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25 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

One of my pet peeves in the weather is when the local media says " only in your state" does such temp extremes happen .---  Only in IA does the temp change 50F in one day. Only in Texas and on and on. It happens in 49 states - Hawaii maybe the exception. But the media likes to make you feel that your location/state is special -- It's NOT. Some more locations more than others--- ND to SC, I get it, but drastic temp changes are very common.  ND ( North Dakota )  btw - for those that don't know has a higher max temp 121F-- than Texas of 120F. That's insane. Dust bowl. Go figure. And both North Dakota's max- 121F and -60F happened within 5 months of each other. Climate was changing hard core in 1936!!

Exactly!!! Ignorance  abounds in weather.  It was  minus 28 here in Jan 2019 but when i ask people  they don't  remember  at all. People easily duped when it comes to weather/ climate.   I tell all explain the 1930s extremes winter n summer to me.  If weather only extreme  now why many records  from  1800 still holding?  But the "only in Iowa" takes the cake.  Mark twain said about  new england " wait 15 and it will change" he was a Midwesterner lol!!!  But  most midwesterners think that saying is from their state!  Ive seen extreme  weather in all 3 states  and  the 2 countries ive lived in. I lived in andes mountains  5 yrs. Saw some crazy stuff!

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After yesterday's 62 degree high, today's high is going to have happened at midnight at 48.6. It fell to 29.3 just before sunrise, but still managed to climb back up to 40.1 this afternoon despite the north winds and overperforming the expected high this afternoon.

It's cool again tomorrow, but warms back up to the mid 50s Friday and Saturday and low 60s on Sunday. Then we'll see how many times we get missed by snow next week.

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Also, I do wanna mention this: the warm-up that was predicted for late February looks to be diminishing away. It keeps getting colder and colder and I see more snow chances for next week for the same areas. Finally, the 40s for next week are getting slowly squashed away (especially for my area that is).

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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On 2/15/2022 at 10:19 AM, OmahaSnowFan said:

E724EA92-BD26-426B-B92E-833F77AFC29C.jpeg

That's nothing. February of '98 Traverse City saw ZERO snowfall. Considering the 20 ways that locale can get snow, a truly incredible stat. Btw, that was the year after I moved south. There was a decent storm in January, but Feb was a shutout! Extremes happen.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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41 minutes ago, Niko said:

Also, I do wanna mention this: the warm-up that was predicted for late February looks to be diminishing away. It keeps getting colder and colder and I see more snow chances for next week for the same areas. Finally, the 40s for next week are getting slowly squashed away (especially for my area that is).

Gotta pay for December. We knew it would happen. Nature got's to balance itself..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I've given up on snow, just as long as it stays cold until St Patrick's Day when most of the ski hills in Wisconsin shut down I'll be happy. My buddy who is still learning but pretty good ended up spraining his knee today because the warm snow wasn't something he was used to riding. I wonder how bad this rain is going to be and if they'll even be open tomorrow. At least it'll be cold enough to make snow for them, next weekend is the last big holiday weekend for ski resorts here and they just got rained on in upper 40 degree temps.

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Onward and upward....the pattern is ripe for storm production that'll first develop over the Northern parts of the Sub and then settle back down S/SE towards the MW/S Plains/GL's region as the N.A. pattern amplifies via a dominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA couplet.  Nature appears to be dialing up a classic wave-train that fits the LRC's most active periods.  I have to admit, about a week or so ago, it did look like there would be a warmer period to finish off FEB but that has since vanished quickly.  There are a number of members on here that will benefit from this upcoming storm train and continue to make up in the snow dept to finish off FEB. 

 

As it stands now, the first system showing up during the Mon-Tue period looks to target the Upper MW/GL's region and parts of the MW north of the I-80 corridor.  An elongated CO Low will eject out into the Plains/MW underneath a powerhouse Canadian Banana HP over the top seeding impressive cold air into the pattern that has no signs of letting up anytime soon.

1.png

snod.conus.png

 

The 0z EPS is farther N with this first system but I'm seeing the GEFS trend south due to the crashing -EPO.  The EPS has a tendency to make last minute shifts of suppression as it digests the -EPO from what I've observed over the years.  The GEPS have been doing so as well and is seeing the S trend that has been common in the modeling over the past few weeks.

3.png

A couple days later, during the 24th-25th timeframe a slowly developing Southern Stream system will come up from the deep S Plains over the TexArkana region and cut up through the OHV.  This has a great potential to be a juicy and widespread winter storm for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

2.png

Finally, there may be one last storm right at the tail end of the month or opening day of MAR that'll target the same areas.  I'm still analyzing the data on this system as I believe MAR will come in like a Lion this year in terms of cold for literally the entire Sub.  A certain someone on here has continuously been on the forefront to mock or laugh at the Long Standing idea of winter making a return across the western Sub and also the fact that during this 1st half of FEB I predicted would deliver a ripe pattern for snow production across the eastern Sub.   

While not perfect, it was a good call and I do feel pretty darn confident that those same areas will get hit again in repeated fashion over the next 2+ weeks into the early part of MAR.  When we do eventually flip the calendar into MAR, the central CONUS/SUB has my attn to produce some slow moving storm systems.  As the jet slows, coupled with key blocking features, this has a great set up to promote slow moving systems that dig and could grow into beasts.  Let's see if the "Ides of March" dial up some Bigly Spring storms.

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Well with the rain (1.15") here and the warm temperatures and the wind most of the snow is now gone here. There is still all of the snow piles and there is some snow in other places as well but a lot of ground is now showing. The high here was 48 and with cloudy skies it is now 31. As for todays snow? Maybe a inch or two? at most

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Onward and upward....the pattern is ripe for storm production that'll first develop over the Northern parts of the Sub and then settle back down S/SE towards the MW/S Plains/GL's region as the N.A. pattern amplifies via a dominant -EPO/-WPO/+PNA couplet.  Nature appears to be dialing up a classic wave-train that fits the LRC's most active periods.  I have to admit, about a week or so ago, it did look like there would be a warmer period to finish off FEB but that has since vanished quickly.  There are a number of members on here that will benefit from this upcoming storm train and continue to make up in the snow dept to finish off FEB. 

 

As it stands now, the first system showing up during the Mon-Tue period looks to target the Upper MW/GL's region and parts of the MW north of the I-80 corridor.  An elongated CO Low will eject out into the Plains/MW underneath a powerhouse Canadian Banana HP over the top seeding impressive cold air into the pattern that has no signs of letting up anytime soon.

1.png

snod.conus.png

 

The 0z EPS is farther N with this first system but I'm seeing the GEFS trend south due to the crashing -EPO.  The EPS has a tendency to make last minute shifts of suppression as it digests the -EPO from what I've observed over the years.  The GEPS have been doing so as well and is seeing the S trend that has been common in the modeling over the past few weeks.

3.png

A couple days later, during the 24th-25th timeframe a slowly developing Southern Stream system will come up from the deep S Plains over the TexArkana region and cut up through the OHV.  This has a great potential to be a juicy and widespread winter storm for parts of the MW/Lower Lakes region.

2.png

Finally, there may be one last storm right at the tail end of the month or opening day of MAR that'll target the same areas.  I'm still analyzing the data on this system as I believe MAR will come in like a Lion this year in terms of cold for literally the entire Sub.  A certain someone on here has continuously been on the forefront to mock or laugh at the Long Standing idea of winter making a return across the western Sub and also the fact that during this 1st half of FEB I predicted would deliver a ripe pattern for snow production across the eastern Sub.   

While not perfect, it was a good call and I do feel pretty darn confident that those same areas will get hit again in repeated fashion over the next 2+ weeks into the early part of MAR.  When we do eventually flip the calendar into MAR, the central CONUS/SUB has my attn to produce some slow moving storm systems.  As the jet slows, coupled with key blocking features, this has a great set up to promote slow moving systems that dig and could grow into beasts.  Let's see if the "Ides of March" dial up some Bigly Spring storms.

You’re my hero Ferris Bueller. Careful so your head doesn’t explode.

Never admit when you were wrong, always pat yourself on the back and remind everyone of what you predicted. That’s why I call you out. I don’t like arrogance.

Why just last few days Texas was supposed to be in the grips of a deadly cold wave that rivaled last year and instead they were in the 70s. Then when the models show it 2 weeks later again, you just say your prediction was a “bit early”.

And nothing in the following weeks has happened yet either, but you’re already giving yourself a ribbon.

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36 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You’re my hero Ferris Bueller. Careful so your head doesn’t explode.

Never admit when you were wrong, always pat yourself on the back and remind everyone of what you predicted. That’s why I call you out. I don’t like arrogance.

Why just last few days Texas was supposed to be in the grips of a deadly cold wave that rivaled last year and instead they were in the 70s. Then when the models show it 2 weeks later again, you just say your prediction was a “bit early”.

And nothing in the following weeks has happened yet either, but you’re already giving yourself a ribbon.

Have you added anything productive or note worthy. No one forces you to read this weather forum. Just leave. Find somewhere else to complain. 

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56 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You’re my hero Ferris Bueller. Careful so your head doesn’t explode.

Never admit when you were wrong, always pat yourself on the back and remind everyone of what you predicted. That’s why I call you out. I don’t like arrogance.

Why just last few days Texas was supposed to be in the grips of a deadly cold wave that rivaled last year and instead they were in the 70s. Then when the models show it 2 weeks later again, you just say your prediction was a “bit early”.

And nothing in the following weeks has happened yet either, but you’re already giving yourself a ribbon.

I have confidence in what I believe in…do not construe it as arrogance… 😉 
 

For the record, I do appreciate constructive criticism but not the flat out disrespectful ways you criticize posts…and yes, when I bust I make it public.  

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GFS is loaded for next week .  The battle ground between return flow and arctic air to the north , centered on the OH river axis , give or take.  Numerous low pressures traversing this axis for the week.  Much of the same areas getting hit today will see  more potential wintry results next week

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Got to hope the storm next week slips further south.  Latest GFS misses us all around again, then the next wave again goes Southeast.  This would be a bad scenario.  NWS Hastings was hinting at this in their disco.  They are as frustrated as the rest of us about this dry winter.  I think they realize the coming agricultural problem in this area without any significant moisture.  My farmer friend says his father can't remember a time he has seen such huge cracks in the ground.

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Models are suggesting 36 hours of snow up in Minnesota and surrounding areas early to mid next week, with widespread moderate to heavy accumulation.  Meanwhile, it's some rain or mix down here.

Models are teasing another system late next week, but it'll probably be suppressed southeast.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I have confidence in what I believe in…do not construe it as arrogance… 😉 
 

For the record, I do appreciate constructive criticism but not the flat out disrespectful ways you criticize posts…and yes, when I bust I make it public.  

Confidence is believing in oneself and letting the results speak for themselves.

Arrogance is reminding everyone when you were successful, just like you do all the time with your forecasts. Take for example this morning's post, in which you said this.

 ...also the fact that during this 1st half of FEB I predicted would deliver a ripe pattern for snow production across the eastern Sub.   

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21 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Confidence is believing in oneself and letting the results speak for themselves.

Arrogance is reminding everyone when you were successful, just like you do all the time with your forecasts. Take for example this morning's post, in which you said this.

 ...also the fact that during this 1st half of FEB I predicted would deliver a ripe pattern for snow production across the eastern Sub.   

You must be the only on here where I appear to rattle your feathers...this post was a purposeful reminder in case your memory is foggy...

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep reports and pictures just like you and others.😉

No one forces you to read my posts either.

 

...pretty sure its been nothing but b!tchin and complaining for roughly 6 years on how it never snows in Omaha and if it does its never enough. Recently turned into attacking one of the main contributors to the board. Make some predictions yourself sometime. Have a great day and smile a bit more.

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Why do you even want snow in Omaha? There was one ski/snowboard resort in the whole state and it was sold off to be homes. All you have is snowmobiling in a few select state parks. What do you do with it besides take pictures and shovel? And every time a storm tracks through by you it misses me. Just shut up and talk about the weather, no one cares and no one likes it when you get snow.

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38 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro with a really nice share the wealth system about a week out.  

This storm is in and out of the models.  This morning it's out of the GFS and Canadian, but still in on the Euro.

It would be pretty ridiculous if we couldn't get one more solid snow event after mid January.  If this one gets suppressed southeast, March will have to deliver something.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This storm is in and out of the models.  This morning it's out of the GFS and Canadian, but still in on the Euro.

It would be pretty ridiculous if we couldn't get one more solid snow event after mid January.  If this one gets suppressed southeast, March will have to deliver something.

I'm still amused at how the current system and the GHD storm both looked very promising for Iowa at one point and both missed well south.  And now the storm that will hit early next week has been just locked in steady for SD and MN for days already and isn't wobbling at all.  Naturally.  I'm sure this one will end up missing us too.  The Euro it seems is only wrong, when it shows Iowa getting slammed.  

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17 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm still amused at how the current system and the GHD storm both looked very promising for Iowa at one point and both missed well south.  And now the storm that will hit early next week has been just locked in steady for SD and MN for days already and isn't wobbling at all.  Naturally.  I'm sure this one will end up missing us too.  The Euro it seems is only wrong, when it shows Iowa getting slammed.  

I'm with you.  I was thinking the same thing about next week for our area.

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