February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I really think we get warm, wet and active this spring throughout the Plains/Midwest.  

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 are pretty much in agreement with the GEFS and GEFS extended....

Week 2....

Central CONUS trough/cold...looks rather moist...

 

Week 2-4...this is prob a clue that the western parts of our Sub turn colder/wintrier...

You can barely see there is a ribbon of BN anomalies right over the MW/Lower Lakes...a clue that the model is likely seeing a lot of snowfall. 

 

This model has been handling the MJO hands down the best over the past couple weeks.  Every model corrected towards the JMA and heading into Phase 3.  Bundle up.

 

Looks like the GFS is trending towards the JMA way of thinking with the MJO staying in phase 3.  I think there will be some big warm ups ahead of some of these storms down my way but hopefully they stay brief.  GFS hitting at our next artic outbreak as well, this map may be a few days early with it.  I've been looking forward to this one.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Snowklahoma!

Love it!

[OKwx2k4]

Truly beautiful.

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

Just what we need, another reason for food to get more expensive.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

I can confirm that.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Look at spring trying to fight for an early arrival! 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Meanwhile... same ol', same ol'. No snow or rain out here.

[snowstorm83]

Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It's been wet!! Raining for nearly 24 hours straight. It was lower 40's when I went to bed and 37 now.

Close to an inch has fallen. 

[Timmy Supercell]

20 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

We don't go longer than a week without rain since I came to Kentucky. And I hear winter is the driest time of year. 

Probably two years worth of rainfall in Klamath Falls fell here since mid-November.

[Andie]

Then we received a lovely snow.

Could do this for 2 or 3 more hrs.  
20*. 
 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

This farmer friend of mine is not a person who ever shows much emotion or worries.  Yesterday he was generally concerned.  This lack of moisture is just potentially another expense for farmers who are already struggling.  

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

[Andie]

8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

Texas is very much a part of that drought.  It’s going to wreck every crop from hay to cotton. 
The moisture from this ice and snow will barely help my yard.  Nothing for the fields really.  

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just love this view out behind the house on a cool drippy late winter day. Makes it look like I live in the woods but just a random hill by my street.  

[Andie]

2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

There are ways to plant a nutrient crop to overturn back into the soil.  Numerous ways exist that can get away from chemicals.  Seed can be developed to be resistant to various fungi and produce hearty crops.  There are solutions without chemicals.

I made my career developing recycling and reclaiming chemicals methods to reuse in clean ways or return to their original process in a closed loop. We did it for big paint companies.   Big Chem Cos. didn't like us but it's the future. Spent a lot of my career being threatened in one way or another.  But the world is committing ecocide and if we don't learn how to preserve this beautiful planet, we are doomed in so many ways.  Sorry for the preach, but this is so important.

[westMJim]

Here is where the major reporting stations stand after yesterdays snow fall in Michigan. Grand Rapids had 5.1" yesterday. For the season 50.7" that is a departure of -1.5" for the season. At Muskegon 0.4" yesterday, 36.8" for the season a departure of -23.5" Lansing 13.3" for the season 36.8 a departure of +6.1" At Detroit 6.2" yesterday 25.4" for the season a departure of -0.3. At Flint 11.0 and for the season 40.4" +9.3. At Saginaw 4.5" for the season 26.3 a departure of -3.8. To the north Alpena just a trace for the season 42.7 a departure of -1.7. Sault Ste Marie 0.3 yesterday and for the season 95.7 a departure of +15.6. Gaylord yesterday trace for the season 72.8" a departure of -20.9. Traverse City a trace fell yesterday and for the season 67.9 a departure there of +2.6. Petoskey a trace yesterday and for the season 61.9 a departure of -22.0. And at Marquette 0.1" fell yesterday and for the season 113.9 a departure of -0.4. So there was not much snow fall north of a Grand Rapids to Saginaw line and for the season there are locations both above and below average as of this date.

I am still waiting to see how the models  that are now is use handle a system like we had in 1967,1978 or even 1973. The snowfall total maps for the most part are way off and they were once again for yesterday but they did a good job on the sharp cut off.

[BrianJK]

Well, this weekend is set to conclude our 2 week stretch of winter.  Will see what the rest of the month has is store for us, but after that, bring on March 2012 again  

[Thunder98]

The low was -42F in International Falls this morning!

[gimmesnow]

A lot of us are really hurting. Pretty weird map for the start of February.

[Beltrami Island]

9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pushing -40 at the "ICE BOX" of the lower 48- KINL's record is -40 in 1982 for this date.

You looked an hour too soon.  KINL got down to -42.   KBDE got down to -34.  Wind was noticeably absent all night, which of course helped the radiational cooling to reach those lows. Highs close to 0 now for a 40 degree temp rise in about 7 hours.  

[tStacsh]

Feel confident I've got about a 12 day stretch of 4-5 chances of snow here in West Michigan.  Should add light snow every other day or so until mid-month.  Clipper train incoming.   Then please get warmer.  

[Andie]

We’re heading for a low of 14.  Humidity is 75%. We’ll stay cloudy till Saturday.  High tomorrow will crack freezing at 33*.  
The wind chills around No Tx are single digits.  
 

Husband put in a full day of Emergency Fleet management and another day ahead.  No one else came in.    He had the joint to himself.  But Police and Fire were grateful.  
Fun times!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

We’ve had precip here in Omaha on a grand total of 6 days since 11/1. That’s 95 days now and doesn’t look like any chances the next week to 10 days either.

[Madtown]

-9 and falling this evening. Deer hanging out by the bird feeder more and more

[Niko]

Next shot of snow chances look to come by end of next week. Something to keep an eye on.

[Thunder98]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

A lot of us are really hurting. Pretty weird map for the start of February.

Mother Nature thinks Nebraska is too boring. Thats why that state is so dry this winter.

[jaster220]

On 2/2/2022 at 2:02 PM, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. 

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

[Niko]

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

[Niko]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

I agree bud, this looks like a brusher, perhaps an inch near the border and nothing near or north of Detroit.

[Grizzcoat]

33F difference in temps for Noon next Thursday at DSM from 12Z to 00z GFS-- no clue which one is right---

[snowstorm83]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

33F difference in temps for Noon next Thursday at DSM from 12Z to 00z GFS-- no clue which one is right---

Probably the warm one 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

I'd gladly take a wet spring.

[OKwx2k4]

Now that's pretty darn cool! Bonus snow!

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave for at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is bearing that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, same, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave fur at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is besring that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, sane, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

[OKwx2k4]

44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

Sorry about the typos.

Yeah, this one is pretty special for the year.

[Tom]

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

[Tom]

@Niko looks like Greece has seen some unusual winter wx...ice forming in parts of the Mediterranean Sea?  Wild Stuff.

https://electroverse.net/sea-freezes-in-greece-arctic-blast-sends-u-s-nat-gas-futures-to-record-highs-covid-narrative-crumbling/

 

 

[Madtown]

The 0z Euro looks warm mid-late next week. Hope it's wrong

[Andie]

7 hours ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

Man o man. That drought is a growing bummer.  

[westMJim]

In the last hour the temperature has dropped from +2 to 0° there remains 5″ of snow on the ground. Officially at the airport there is 6.0″ reported on the ground. For February since 1894 the average snow depth at Grand Rapids is 4.9″ In that time there have been only 8 years with no snow on the ground the last time was in 2020. The most on the ground on February 4th is 20″ and that was in 1959. There was 18″ on the ground on this date in 2014 and 2011 and 1904. Last year there was 2″

[Niko]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

@Niko looks like Greece has seen some unusual winter wx...ice forming in parts of the Mediterranean Sea?  Wild Stuff.

https://electroverse.net/sea-freezes-in-greece-arctic-blast-sends-u-s-nat-gas-futures-to-record-highs-covid-narrative-crumbling/

 

 

There is a first time for everything I guess....

Crazy weather going on there.

Look at this unreal: Athens, Greece

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

Praying this verifies.  Looks more and more like we have been missed with moistue about as much as any place in the nation since the Fall.  

[mlgamer]

So here's the scorecard for how much snow we've had this winter season. Not for the faint-hearted if you live in the central part of the country.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

So here's the scorecard for how much snow we've had this winter season. Not for the faint-hearted if you live in the central part of the country.

Just had a tear come to my eye.  Abysmal.  Not good when Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and others have had more snow than Central Nebraska.

[Timmy Supercell]

I take it others have it worse than I do. My first impression from Ashland KY is that we've seen bigger events.

About 1/4" of white and hardly any ice. That rain was so heavy it took forever to switch.