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temp at mby has dropped to -6F-- wind chill -25F. This after the NWS "updated" the grids to a low of -1F at 3am. "and we look at models for snow at 72 hours ( even closer)  like "certain"--- not happening. Mother nature dictates. Computer models - not try and die.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What a sharp cut off of yesterdays snow fall. The official reading at GRR was 5.1" I live about 15 miles NW of the airport and I recorded just 3.1" I am about 22 miles SE of the Muskegon airport and they only reported 0.4" of snow fall. This morning there is now 5" of snow on the ground here at my house and I now have a temperature of 17 with cloudy skies.

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Well, 21* at 7am. Not as bad as first feared. 
2” of ice and sleet. A little snow. We have another hr of sleet/snow and it will pass. 


It’s a first responder kinda day. No one else on the road this morning.  
Only 22,000 without power statewide. Better than expected.  Ercot knew it better not fail. 😄

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I really think we get warm, wet and active this spring throughout the Plains/Midwest.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 are pretty much in agreement with the GEFS and GEFS extended....

Week 2....

2.png

Central CONUS trough/cold...looks rather moist...

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

Y202202.D0212_gl0.png

 

Week 2-4...this is prob a clue that the western parts of our Sub turn colder/wintrier...

3.png

You can barely see there is a ribbon of BN anomalies right over the MW/Lower Lakes...a clue that the model is likely seeing a lot of snowfall. 

Y202202.D0212_gl2.png

 

This model has been handling the MJO hands down the best over the past couple weeks.  Every model corrected towards the JMA and heading into Phase 3.  Bundle up.

JMAN_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Looks like the GFS is trending towards the JMA way of thinking with the MJO staying in phase 3.  I think there will be some big warm ups ahead of some of these storms down my way but hopefully they stay brief.  GFS hitting at our next artic outbreak as well, this map may be a few days early with it.  I've been looking forward to this one.

 

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

0d40d5_f4228b0717804ee28b7bad49e7dd5867~mv2.webp

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

Just what we need, another reason for food to get more expensive.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

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Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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It's been wet!! Raining for nearly 24 hours straight. It was lower 40's when I went to bed and 37 now.

Close to an inch has fallen. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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20 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah I probably should've accepted this a long time ago, but I'm waving the white flag. Looks warm and still no precip through at least mid Feb. I know stuff can randomly pop up in mid range, but if it's already been this dry for this long I don't see why it won't continue. 

We don't go longer than a week without rain since I came to Kentucky. And I hear winter is the driest time of year. 

Probably two years worth of rainfall in Klamath Falls fell here since mid-November.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

This farmer friend of mine is not a person who ever shows much emotion or worries.  Yesterday he was generally concerned.  This lack of moisture is just potentially another expense for farmers who are already struggling.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Looks like the GFS is trending towards the JMA way of thinking with the MJO staying in phase 3.  I think there will be some big warm ups ahead of some of these storms down my way but hopefully they stay brief.  GFS hitting at our next artic outbreak as well, this map may be a few days early with it.  I've been looking forward to this one.

 

GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram

0d40d5_f4228b0717804ee28b7bad49e7dd5867~mv2.webp

I feel like the bottom of the mean trough is too far east for KC this year.  Things are developing east of us.  Might explain why Nashville has had more snow than us even though they typically get 1/5 of the snow we get. I mean, heck, Nashville has had more snow than Lincoln, NE.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is not just the lack of snow/moisture this winter.  We went into winter with a dry fall.  We have to hope the spring turns around moisture wise.

Texas is very much a part of that drought.  It’s going to wreck every crop from hay to cotton. 
The moisture from this ice and snow will barely help my yard.  Nothing for the fields really.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I hear that fertilizer is going to go through the roof this Spring.  Just another added worry and expense to the growing season.

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

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Just love this view out behind the house on a cool drippy late winter day. Makes it look like I live in the woods but just a random hill by my street. ;) 

IMG_4847.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Yeah it is, I don't want to bring up politics but fertilizer needs quite a bit of dirty stuff to make it happen. Basically, a lot of fertilizer production is outsourced to China since we have too much green regulations to allow it to be made here, but China is increasing their green regulations which means the price is going up. A bit like recycling steel, where it's too dirty to do over here because of regulations, so it's all loaded into a ship and sent to the other side of the world to be done in the same polluting way it would be done here, if environmental regulations allowed it.

There are ways to plant a nutrient crop to overturn back into the soil.  Numerous ways exist that can get away from chemicals.  Seed can be developed to be resistant to various fungi and produce hearty crops.  There are solutions without chemicals.

I made my career developing recycling and reclaiming chemicals methods to reuse in clean ways or return to their original process in a closed loop. We did it for big paint companies.   Big Chem Cos. didn't like us but it's the future. Spent a lot of my career being threatened in one way or another.  But the world is committing ecocide and if we don't learn how to preserve this beautiful planet, we are doomed in so many ways.  Sorry for the preach, but this is so important.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Here is where the major reporting stations stand after yesterdays snow fall in Michigan. Grand Rapids had 5.1" yesterday. For the season 50.7" that is a departure of -1.5" for the season. At Muskegon 0.4" yesterday, 36.8" for the season a departure of -23.5" Lansing 13.3" for the season 36.8 a departure of +6.1" At Detroit 6.2" yesterday 25.4" for the season a departure of -0.3. At Flint 11.0 and for the season 40.4" +9.3. At Saginaw 4.5" for the season 26.3 a departure of -3.8. To the north Alpena just a trace for the season 42.7 a departure of -1.7. Sault Ste Marie 0.3 yesterday and for the season 95.7 a departure of +15.6. Gaylord yesterday trace for the season 72.8" a departure of -20.9. Traverse City a trace fell yesterday and for the season 67.9 a departure there of +2.6. Petoskey a trace yesterday and for the season 61.9 a departure of -22.0. And at Marquette 0.1" fell yesterday and for the season 113.9 a departure of -0.4. So there was not much snow fall north of a Grand Rapids to Saginaw line and for the season there are locations both above and below average as of this date.

I am still waiting to see how the models  that are now is use handle a system like we had in 1967,1978 or even 1973. The snowfall total maps for the most part are way off and they were once again for yesterday but they did a good job on the sharp cut off.

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Officially, KC is at 7.6 inches of snow.  I've had a bit more than that at my house.  If (and I realize it's still a big if, as we're only in early February) KC ends up with single digit totals this year, that will be the 4th time in 7 years.  Going back to 1888, that has happened only once before, but that time overlaps with this time -- between 2011 and 2018.  Before that, there had been two times where 2 out of 7 years had single digit totals.  In 132 years! 

Upshot:  KC is going through a historic stretch of bad snowfall years.  I don't care whether it's caused by global warming, whether it's a natural cycle or manmade.  I don't care if the Matrix is doing it just to frustrate me. I just want some decent snow years.  

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9 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pushing -40 at the "ICE BOX" of the lower 48- KINL's record is -40 in 1982 for this date.

image.thumb.png.92d7ad910a96495a3d9bf2fc8ee80b24.png

You looked an hour too soon.  KINL got down to -42.   KBDE got down to -34.  Wind was noticeably absent all night, which of course helped the radiational cooling to reach those lows. Highs close to 0 now for a 40 degree temp rise in about 7 hours.  

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Feel confident I've got about a 12 day stretch of 4-5 chances of snow here in West Michigan.  Should add light snow every other day or so until mid-month.  Clipper train incoming.   Then please get warmer.  

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We’re heading for a low of 14.  Humidity is 75%. We’ll stay cloudy till Saturday.  High tomorrow will crack freezing at 33*.  
The wind chills around No Tx are single digits.  
 

Husband put in a full day of Emergency Fleet management and another day ahead.  No one else came in.  😂  He had the joint to himself.  But Police and Fire were grateful.  
Fun times!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 2/2/2022 at 2:02 PM, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh252-306.thumb.gif.9846390862e3186cd3ec310c228abaad.gif

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

I agree bud, this looks like a brusher, perhaps an inch near the border and nothing near or north of Detroit.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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33F difference in temps for Noon next Thursday at DSM from 12Z to 00z GFS-- no clue which one is right---

sfct.us_mw.pngsfct.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

33F difference in temps for Noon next Thursday at DSM from 12Z to 00z GFS-- no clue which one is right---

sfct.us_mw.pngsfct.us_mw.png

Probably the warm one 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

I'd gladly take a wet spring.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Remember, this storm that's just ending across the S OHV was originally portrayed as a rainer then seasonal suppression got involved and now S Indiana and OK are getting a storm. What I see in that loop above = congrats Florida if if follows the same progression. As shown, it barely scrapes Lwr Michigan and I wouldn't bet on a N trend this time of year. 

 

 

 

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave for at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is bearing that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, same, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

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12 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

You're not wrong. What is compelling, just like the storm I'm in now; we followed the same wave fur at least 2 weeks in modeling and this one is besring that "I'm not going anywhere" mark on it, too. Pattern wise, sane, so you're making a great call here.

Honestly, I'm anticipating another storm here based on history of these patterns/cycles and I could be wrong, too. Anyway, great stuff.

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

We may not get another S Stream storm to come up here, but for now there's a clipper or 2 in the not to distant future that will bring some snow to The Mitt. Mostly it will be those favored by LES, but a fresh coating could happen anywhere. 

Sorry about the typos.

Yeah, this one is pretty special for the year.

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I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

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