February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Beltrami Island]

A pic of trail from last weekend. Those golden tamaracks look like dead pines if you didn't know better. 

Had to add a pic the growing plow drift near me. It's wind drift aided in growth but is starting to rival some good winters

[mlgamer]

I'm not taking a position either way, but I put this together just for discussion for anyone interested. So do these maps reflect a discernible cycle? I'm guessing Gary says they do. (I added the numbers to the Dec and Feb maps.)

Oct 2 (Gary's map)

 

Dec 4 - 63 days

 

Feb 1 - 122 days (61 day cycle - I think this map sorta matches, note the extension east of New Jersey is similar to Oct 2)

 

Feb 3 - 124 days (62 day cycle - Gary's blog matched this date with a GFS forecast map)

 

[Jayhawker85]

12 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I'm not taking a position either way, but I put this together just for discussion for anyone interested. So do these maps reflect a discernible cycle? I'm guessing Gary says they do. (I added the numbers to the Dec and Feb maps.)

Oct 2 (Gary's map)

 

Dec 4 - 63 days

 

Feb 1 - 122 days (61 day cycle - I think this map sorta matches, note the extension east of New Jersey is similar to Oct 2)

 

Feb 3 - 124 days (62 day cycle - Gary's blog matched this date with a GFS forecast map)

 

This here shows that there is a pattern and a cycle. I think people do not take into consideration the seasonal differences. Just like there are long term patterns where storms strengthen and patterns where storms weaken. Just like how everyone on here knows that the month of October was wet and active for the Midwest and central part of the country and not so much on the east coast which is the pattern we are entering now. The month of November was known for Great Lake clippers and big storms on the east coast what just happened the last couple weeks.

 

i think there is a pattern and cycle to the chaos in the atmosphere it’s just not the exact same return/location when it cycles back thru. I agree the LRC is not 100% perfect but it’s the best long term forecasting tool over the GFS and other long term forecast tools 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

But then how does 2/2 equate to 10/2?

I’m not trying to be a d*ck or pick on you  bc this isn’t your hypothesis, but you see how “sketchy” this idea of a storm that is supposed to now be the every other cycle of a repeating cycle of a long term pattern, also then matches up with a pattern one week later in October but is now 2 weeks later in February?

10/2-2/2= 123 days

10/10-2/17= 130 days

 

 

It still falls into the range of 61 to 65 days.  I don't like how they presented it yesterday if it was me I would just call it a 63 day cycle with a +or - of 2.  I see how the way they wrote it would confuse people.

[Andie]

Hitting 41-42 today.  Nice to get out of the deep freeze.  We’re just not cut out for it on so many levels.  24 tonight and tomorrow.  

One of the reasons we lose so many people that move here expecting the land of milk and honey is they experience  our temperature extremes and bail.  First tornado cinches the deal.  
Can’t blame them when they’re used to more moderate climes.  
It a kind of checks and balances for us.  
I’m curious to find out how many will make 3 yrs.  Our recent deep cold and 100*+ days are a good test.  

[GDR]

Looks like we have a storm brewing

[OKwx2k4]

14 minutes ago, GDR said:

Looks like we have a storm brewing

There's basis for it. If theres literally any suppression at all in the longer ranges or the GFS gets it hyper-variance back under control in the next 48, we should see something great.

[OKwx2k4]

Folks have referred to the developing drought risk in the grain belts and TX, yeah, that one is probably going to happen. Not good. That's just a bad region to have drought in and it's a self sustaining type in that region, oftentimes.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This here shows that there is a pattern and a cycle. I think people do not take into consideration the seasonal differences. Just like there are long term patterns where storms strengthen and patterns where storms weaken. Just like how everyone on here knows that the month of October was wet and active for the Midwest and central part of the country and not so much on the east coast which is the pattern we are entering now. The month of November was known for Great Lake clippers and big storms on the east coast what just happened the last couple weeks.

 

i think there is a pattern and cycle to the chaos in the atmosphere it’s just not the exact same return/location when it cycles back thru. I agree the LRC is not 100% perfect but it’s the best long term forecasting tool over the GFS and other long term forecast tools 

That's right. Seasonal contraction/expansion of the poles and tropics plus there are times the tropics fade out of sync with the polar or continental domains. Well said.

Another, in long range stuff...when La Nina goes 7 weeks too deep into your forecast...warmest December ever.

Nobody won. Nobody.

[Andie]

9 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Folks have referred to the developing drought risk in the grain belts and TX, yeah, that one is probably going to happen. Not good. That's just a bad region to have drought in and it's a self sustaining type in that region, oftentimes.

It often takes something like a hurricane to drive into the state to knock out the High and bring moisture into the atmosphere.  
I’m not looking forward to this. 

[Madtown]

6 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Nice clipper indeed with snow falling since morning. A few hours yet to go. Probably going to be more like 2-4 inches versus the inflated 6" kuchera numbers.

Trails here were already in mint condition really. Other than one stretch of trail near resorts there really isn't the traffic here to beat up trails to badly once there is a base. Areas near @Madtown really need the fresh snow to hold up to the traffic.

Picked up about 1.5" it helps, but need a quality 4+. Hopefully later this week!

[snowstorm83]

7 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Don’t forget the rest of us Nebraska posters that haven’t seen anything either! Even that map screws over everyone west of Omaha and Lincoln 

Most bizarre thing about this winter is even out west is getting nothing. Usually low snowfall winters here have a couple of rainers with snow to the west. Today was another afternoon with RH in the mid teens. It could hit 90 degrees before the end of the month and I wouldn't be surprised at all LOL. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Andie]

Nice warmup surprise. 47* high. 
24* tonight. 
That’s better.

[OmahaSnowFan]

6 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This here shows that there is a pattern and a cycle. I think people do not take into consideration the seasonal differences. Just like there are long term patterns where storms strengthen and patterns where storms weaken. Just like how everyone on here knows that the month of October was wet and active for the Midwest and central part of the country and not so much on the east coast which is the pattern we are entering now. The month of November was known for Great Lake clippers and big storms on the east coast what just happened the last couple weeks.

 

i think there is a pattern and cycle to the chaos in the atmosphere it’s just not the exact same return/location when it cycles back thru. I agree the LRC is not 100% perfect but it’s the best long term forecasting tool over the GFS and other long term forecast tools 

Here’s the thing that skeptics of the LRC believe I think. If you have to have enough variables on this in order to make it accurate, than what’s the point?

It’s not exactly in the same place. It depends on the indices. There’s a week of possible dates. Now there’s a wet and dry cycle. 
 

Everyone talked about the big December 15th storm with the 120 tornadoes etc being the next big storm to cycle through in February. But now it’s referring to October bc of wet and dry LRC cycles. Wasn’t the December storm a wet storm? If that was a wet storm, then according to Lezak, this cycle should be dry, right?

[Cfweather]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:13 AM, james1976 said:

Kinda hard to tell from all the drifting with the last storm we had but I'd say a good 4-5" just from eyeballing. The other day the local met said Waterloo was at 6" OTG.

There’s no way there’s 6 inches here.  Half my yard is bare.  The other half has 6” drifts.  They must be measuring in a drift….

[OmahaSnowFan]

Crazy temp difference today in Omaha.

Morning low: 12.2

Afternoon high: 55.8

A difference of 43.6 degrees in February  on still one of the shorter days of the year.

In 152 years of record keeping (~4300 days), there have been now 56 days where a difference of 40+ degrees has occurred.

That’s 1.3%.

[Stacsh]

I have no basis or evidence.  But I think the plains and Midwest torch by the end of February 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Crazy temp difference today in Omaha.

Morning low: 12.2

Afternoon high: 55.8

A difference of 43.6 degrees in February  on still one of the shorter days of the year.

In 152 years of record keeping (~4300 days), there have been now 56 days where a difference of 40+ degrees has occurred.

That’s 1.3%.

The air must be bone dry, that sounds like a day in Colorado Springs.
 

[mlgamer]

Time again for Weather Fun Facts!

Topeka received 8.2" of snow on Dec 31, 1984 into Jan 1, 1985.

Topeka received 11.3" of snow on Jan 9, 1985.

That is 19.5" of snow in a 10-day period from two systems that each exceeded 6".

Topeka's last storm exceeding 6" was 8 years ago yesterday (Feb 4, 2014 - 13.0").

That 19.5" is more snow than Topeka has received in 7 of the last 8 winters counting this one.

Amazing.

[Bellona]

3 hours ago, Cfweather said:

There’s no way there’s 6 inches here.  Half my yard is bare.  The other half has 6” drifts.  They must be measuring in a drift….

I maybe have 2-3 on the ground in my yard, plenty of bare spots in the city.

[Tom]

It was a Winter-Esque type of day yesterday and when the sun came up above the horizon you could see the twinkle off the newly fallen snow.  ORD topped out at 20F and with a 5" snow depth the days with a snow cover continues...and...there are more good signs of more measurable snowfall this week.  Officially, ORD has had 21.9" (-1.1" of normal to date) of snowfall this season while MDW has had about 10" more than ORD.  

With that being said, I read an interesting stat from our WGN station regarding the trends in snowfall for FEB.

 

Over the next week, the GL's are in the "highway corridor" of a clipper train and the last one could be quite vigorous.  Of late, the models have trended towards a more potent clipper for the Friday/Saturday period.  A potent shot of Arctic Air is in store for parts of the MW and GL's later next weekend.  The GEFS/EPS correction west with the colder air is apparent as they digest the N ATL/W NAMER ridge.

 

 

 

I've noticed that tonight's 0z EPS run is more bullish and trending towards the Canadien and GEFS through next weekend...it'll be nice to add a few more days of snowfall over the next week around here.  Snow-On-Snow...Let it Snow...

 

[Tom]

Thinking of warm weather??  I'd be lying if I didn't have my sights on AZ right now...perfect wx on tap...

[Tom]

Some LR thoughts and the storm potential showing up on the models mid month....our current snow pack across the nation...while there will be some expected snow melt down in the southern MW region, I suspect nature will try to fill it back up.  

 

 

Both the GEFS/EPS are indicating a similar "look" for yet another very similar pattern that set up our last GHD-3 storm across the S Plains/MW/OHV.  Check out the 0z EPS mean SLP animation below suggesting a strong lead N Stream storm tracking across the southern Canadien border which will have a trailing frontal boundary setting up somewhere across the central/southern SUB up into the OHV.

 

 

There are some very wet/wintry looking ensembles at this range....following this system, there should be another one on its heels.  The models in the LR have really been terrible predicting the MJO except for the JMA and Australian.  Keeping that in mind, the current JMA run is rotating the MJO in Phase 3 and pretty much not going anywhere.  IF, this model is right again,  then I suspect another big bust on rushing the warmth back into the pattern like the EPS is doing for Week 2 trying to Blow Torch the CONUS.  

 

 

Upon closer look, I didn't realize that place up north of the "cheddar curtain" near MKE are snow less...this coming weeks pattern should fill in these snow holes...

[westMJim]

The overnight low both here at my house and the airport was 14 at this time I have partly cloudy skies and 17. Boy I see that a good part of the US is very dry and even here in west Michigan it is drier than normal for this time of the year.

[gimmesnow]

What's the deal with models and temps? GFS says ice age, but some of the other ones are showing a fight between intruding cold over the eastern half of the US while the rest is quite warm by winter standards. I assume my 10 day forecast that cuts the middle is just make a safe guess between all of them.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro early next week.  It has low 60s up to central Iowa.

[OmahaSnowFan]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro early next week.  It has low 60s up to central Iowa.

GFS has low 70s on Valentine’s Day 

[GDR]

Let’s put a wrap on winter early and bring on the 60s and 70s

[Andie]

I can provide those 60’s. 
We’ll have highs and sunny in the upper 60’s all weekend with a possible 72 one day.  
 

Typical Texas.  Freeze one week, gorgeous the next.  

[gimmesnow]

New runs came out much warmer, explains a lot about the 10 day. I feel like in SE Wisconsin, it's going to be warm for the rest of the month, with one good storm where the snowcover is mostly gone in a few days. This is one of the worst winters we've had for snowfall in SE Wisconsin according to Madison Climatology office in the last 20 years. I've been really liking the cold, the snow for snowboarding has been great. Looks like we are heading towards warming in the day with a little melt which turns to crust or ice when the sun goes down. They always try and keep the hill going until St Patrick's Day, so hopefully it works out ok.

[james1976]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro early next week.  It has low 60s up to central Iowa.

Thats a massive ridge

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

To my own dismay, I may end up being right about KC getting single digit snowfall totals. Time is growing shorter and shorter.  

Ditto for you, me, Lincoln, Sioux City, etc.

It really almost boggles the mind that when all these places can/have gotten snowfall in at least 6 of the 12 calendar months, to somehow stay in single digits for seasonal snowfall.

[jaster220]

47 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ditto for you, me, Lincoln, Sioux City, etc.

It really almost boggles the mind that when all these places can/have gotten snowfall in at least 6 of the 12 calendar months, to somehow stay in single digits for seasonal snowfall.

Not to the level of single digits, but over here, I had "only" 36.2" last season the lowest I've recorded and likely lowest for me personally since '97-98 (or maybe even '82-83). Currently I stand at 24.4" on the season and have very little confidence that I will even match last winter's low number. Getting the "shaft zone" on the big storm last week sure didn't help the cause at all. 

[Madtown]

what the heck on those temps?!? Hopefully a change for the better as time goes on.

[Grizzcoat]

You mean these temps?? ( below)  Or the warmer temps for around the  14th??   Long range Guidance is going to do nothing until it figures out the MJO.  Trust me. This Thursday for example was supposed to be in the 50's per the EURO over a week out for DSM-- now maybe 30F at Noon . GFS nailed it. Why? MJO phase. Someone mentioned earlier with actual science that GFS is out doing the Euro in the long range. I would agree.

[Madtown]

34 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

You mean these temps?? ( below)  Or the warmer temps for around the  14th??   Long range Guidance is going to do nothing until it figures out the MJO.  Trust me. This Thursday for example was supposed to be in the 50's per the EURO over a week out for DSM-- now maybe 30F at Noon . GFS nailed it. Why? MJO phase. Someone mentioned earlier with actual science that GFS is out doing the Euro in the long range. I would agree.

14th to the 16th

[westMJim]

There is some freezing drizzle or mist falling here at this time. The overnight low here was 26 and it is now up to 30. There is now around 5" of snow still on the ground here at my house. Today will be the 43rd day in row with at least 1' of snow on the ground here at Grand Rapids.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

You mean these temps?? ( below)  Or the warmer temps for around the  14th??   Long range Guidance is going to do nothing until it figures out the MJO.  Trust me. This Thursday for example was supposed to be in the 50's per the EURO over a week out for DSM-- now maybe 30F at Noon . GFS nailed it. Why? MJO phase. Someone mentioned earlier with actual science that GFS is out doing the Euro in the long range. I would agree.

True it sniffs out the long range pattern better, but man the GFS overdoes everything after 7 days.  Storms are the strongest in history and record breaking cold every run.   

[OmahaSnowFan]

Last I heard, Texas is supposed to be preparing for an arctic outbreak the 13th-15th that is going to rival last year's weather disaster.

Someone probably tell the models that since they have..... 60s and 70s for Texas the 13th-15th.