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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


Grizzcoat

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GFS starting to latch onto a more precip further S into IOWA for Friday. Most of the qpf in Ia is liquid, but any moisture is much needed.qpf_012h.us_mw.pngGFS also getting colder for Sat AM-- below zero now into N.IA--

sfct.us_mw.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The Euro has been surging warmth into the area early next week, but the GFS is very different.  This morning's Euro had 54º here Monday.  This evening's GFS has 21º.  The Canadian is much closer to the GFS, so I'm guessing the warmth will not happen.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Forecast of 43 tomorrow with daylight a bit longer. Yup there will be sirloins on the Weber. Still hoping for snow and cold....it is early February afterall, and I'm betting I'll get some more of that here.....but I'll take advantage of some March temps if that's what I'm given for now.

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm sorry, I have a bad habit of calling out the BS. Especially when you have no problem reminding everyone of what you predicted before when you're right.

Calling out BS?  So, your saying my input on here is BS??  I find that amusing, seriously, to hear that coming from you is appalling.  This is an open forum.  This is a place where you can speak freely and provide input in an open discussion of the weather.   I'll continue to discuss the weather as I've always have.  It's a passion of mine and I have conviction in my thoughts of the weather patterns.

For the record, there are a number of members on here who appreciate what I do.  In fact, they reach out to me on a personal level and we keep in touch throughout the year.   A lot of them don't really post but lurk instead.  IF you have a serious issue with the way I comment, post, analyze data and draw conclusions from that data, forecast and/or predict LR patterns...then...you know what to do.

I am praying for moisture to finally hit your region bc maybe that is what is the issue so that your boredom doesn't effect this Sub Forum.  That is all for now.

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro has been surging warmth into the area early next week, but the GFS is very different.  This morning's Euro had 54º here Monday.  This evening's GFS has 21º.  The Canadian is much closer to the GFS, so I'm guessing the warmth will not happen.

The 00z Euro just caved, going from 50s to 20s Monday, and only low 40s Tuesday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0z EPS trending a bit farther south with the expansion of the precip shield from the the potent clipper diving S/SE over the GL's later Friday...some better looking members showing front-end snows out ahead of the CF...then there are a few that show another wave riding along the arctic boundary...

 

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When looking at the 0z EPS, I find it rather fascinating when you see a repeating pattern...here was the outcome from the GHD Storm...

1.png

 

Take a look at the precip animation and snow mean....Repeating pattern??  Is nature making up in the snow dept for the MW/Lower Lakes??  Snow drought continues out in the west....

 

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I like seeing the corrections in the models handling of the W NAMER/NE PAC ridge...both the EPO/PNA forecast provide a good idea that the pattern should "press" the cold into the central US during the 10th-15th period, more importantly, prior to the storms arrival.  Let's see how this evolves.  

6.png

 

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z Euro just caved, going from 50s to 20s Monday, and only low 40s Tuesday.

At least with Temps 120+ hours or so out-- the Euro has been caving to the GFS for some time. I never remember this is previous winters' . The Euro weeklies also at the  4 week forecast have showed above normal temps for the entire winter. Since the  last 5 weeks or so have been below normal for many reading- well the EURO is not what it used to be- or at least what I remember from the last 10-20 years. Maybe the GFS did improve in the temp forecasts with it's recent upgrades ?? But most still vault the Euro to be King?? Temp wise- this winter, the Euro past 120 hours has gotten it's arse kicked.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

At least with Temps 120+ hours or so out-- the Euro has been caving to the GFS for some time. I never remember this is previous winters' . The Euro weeklies also at the  4 week forecast have showed above normal temps for the entire winter. Since the  last 5 weeks or so have been below normal for many reading- well the EURO is not what it used to be- or at least what I remember from the last 10-20 years. Maybe the GFS did improve in the temp forecasts with it's recent upgrades ?? But most still vault the Euro to be King?? Temp wise- this winter, the Euro past 120 hours has gotten it's arse kicked.

Except for DEC’s warmth, for the month of JAN and so far into FEB it has done poorly.  I believe it’s bias in the west has a lot to do with it and the MJO extended forecast.

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23 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

At least with Temps 120+ hours or so out-- the Euro has been caving to the GFS for some time. I never remember this is previous winters' . The Euro weeklies also at the  4 week forecast have showed above normal temps for the entire winter. Since the  last 5 weeks or so have been below normal for many reading- well the EURO is not what it used to be- or at least what I remember from the last 10-20 years. Maybe the GFS did improve in the temp forecasts with it's recent upgrades ?? But most still vault the Euro to be King?? Temp wise- this winter, the Euro past 120 hours has gotten it's arse kicked.

GFS also outperformed the Euro at 24hrs prior to my last snowfall. 

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Here at my house there was a half inch of new snow fall yesterday and there is a fresh coating of snow on the ground. The overnight low here was 22 and at this time it is 23. Officially at GRR 0.8" of snow fell yesterday for the month GRR now has reported 6.7" and for the season GRR is now at 52.3" that is a departure of -3.4" Today will be the 44th day in a row of at least 1" of snow cover. The last time it has gotten above 50 was on Christmas day when the high was 52. The highest it has been so far in 2022 at GRR is 46.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Your not far from @St Paul Storm....I think he lives on the east side as well...congrats on the move!  Did you get bored up there in Fargo?

Not really! I woulda stayed up there if I could. But when you get offered a 100K/yr job in St. Paul, you take it.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

Calling out BS?  So, your saying my input on here is BS??  I find that amusing, seriously, to hear that coming from you is appalling.  This is an open forum.  This is a place where you can speak freely and provide input in an open discussion of the weather.   I'll continue to discuss the weather as I've always have.  It's a passion of mine and I have conviction in my thoughts of the weather patterns.

For the record, there are a number of members on here who appreciate what I do.  In fact, they reach out to me on a personal level and we keep in touch throughout the year.   A lot of them don't really post but lurk instead.  IF you have a serious issue with the way I comment, post, analyze data and draw conclusions from that data, forecast and/or predict LR patterns...then...you know what to do.

I am praying for moisture to finally hit your region bc maybe that is what is the issue so that your boredom doesn't effect this Sub Forum.  That is all for now.

Praying?!😂

i don’t think the big guy upstairs cares about the weather considering the long lasting droughts, enormous deadly wildfires, violent killer tornadoes, major destructive hurricanes…..

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25 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Going to see plenty of these this spring I’m afraid.

2DF7EAD1-CADB-4437-B63D-575704DAE299.jpeg

Haha, we're so screwed for the rest of this year. Cost of food is going to get even worse, farmers having to spread fertilizer which is going to go up in price with machinery that uses diesel fuel which is reaching higher prices than they've been in a long time, not to mention running irrigation systems that rely on fuel too.

It's fun to come here and whine about snowboarding and snowmobiling not being good and trying to figure out why, but unless we see some serious precipitation, things are going to get bad. RIP restaurants with the food cost increases, every restaurant I go to already raised their prices or lowered the quality of ingredients and made portions a lot smaller. If it gets worse the industry is in serious trouble, among many other ones already squeezed by covid restrictions.

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It's the warmest day of the year around here, already well into the 40s.  The previous high temp this year was 40º.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Haha, we're so screwed for the rest of this year. Cost of food is going to get even worse, farmers having to spread fertilizer which is going to go up in price with machinery that uses diesel fuel which is reaching higher prices than they've been in a long time, not to mention running irrigation systems that rely on fuel too.

It's fun to come here and whine about snowboarding and snowmobiling not being good and trying to figure out why, but unless we see some serious precipitation, things are going to get bad. RIP restaurants with the food cost increases, every restaurant I go to already raised their prices or lowered the quality of ingredients and made portions a lot smaller. If it gets worse the industry is in serious trouble, among many other ones already squeezed by covid restrictions.

That is interesting that you said smaller portions.  My wife and I went to our son's basketball game last Friday in York NE.  We stopped at the KFC off of I80 since it had been a long time since we had eaten at one.  I've always enjoyed KFC.  We each ordered the 3 piece chicken strip meal with a biscuit and mashed potatoes.  We starting laughing when we saw the size of the strips.  Easily half the size of what we remember.  Then we got to the biscuit, it was like a mini.  We had a good laugh, but also knew we just paid $17 for 2 meals that were worth about $8 total.

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1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

Haha, we're so screwed for the rest of this year. Cost of food is going to get even worse, farmers having to spread fertilizer which is going to go up in price with machinery that uses diesel fuel which is reaching higher prices than they've been in a long time, not to mention running irrigation systems that rely on fuel too.

It's fun to come here and whine about snowboarding and snowmobiling not being good and trying to figure out why, but unless we see some serious precipitation, things are going to get bad. RIP restaurants with the food cost increases, every restaurant I go to already raised their prices or lowered the quality of ingredients and made portions a lot smaller. If it gets worse the industry is in serious trouble, among many other ones already squeezed by covid restrictions.

YEP! This country is in big trouble, what a shame. We were flying high not so long ago. Destroying my business also as fuel and fertilizer drive my needs too. Staffing is still horrible and the cost of operations goes up daily. Inflation is uncontrollable right now and nobody can forecast when relief is on the way. What a mess 

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The operational runs of the models are mostly trying to suppress much of the mid February action south and east of NE/IA.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The operational runs of the models are mostly trying to suppress much of the mid February action south and east of NE/IA.

Another true sign that the pattern does indeed cycle. The same areas keep getting missed. The same dry cycles in the late fall and all of winter can turn wet in the spring as the storm track shifts farther NW as the seasons change. 

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2 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

YEP! This country is in big trouble, what a shame. We were flying high not so long ago. Destroying my business also as fuel and fertilizer drive my needs too. Staffing is still horrible and the cost of operations goes up daily. Inflation is uncontrollable right now and nobody can forecast when relief is on the way. What a mess 

Plenty of jobs available.  No one wants to work for nickels anymore.  Moved on to better business opportunities.  That's capitalism.  Our business is doing GREAT!  Good for the people getting out of the crap restaurant industries.    I'm sure the farmers will continue to suck off the teet of the government like they've been doing for years on NY and Cali's tax money.  

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

That's crazy that it's only been 40 as the previous highest temp.

Looking at my stats, I've been at least 40 degrees already 19x this year!

I hit 61 on Feb 1st!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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gfs_asnow_us_65.png

Whatever is happening it really hates Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. I think it's too late to salvage this, we'll be under half of normal snowfall for the fun parts of winter, and we'll probably get a big snow in April that does nothing for skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling except pad stats so people look back and say that 2021-2022 wasn't a bad winter since they were only a little below average total snowfall.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

It's amazing how just last year it was only average consistent snowfall all winter and it felt like an amazing one.

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No snow or t'storms. We could call this the doldrums of winter.

2022-02-08 16_26_03-Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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39 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

Whatever is happening it really hates Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. I think it's too late to salvage this, we'll be under half of normal snowfall for the fun parts of winter, and we'll probably get a big snow in April that does nothing for skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling except pad stats so people look back and say that 2021-2022 wasn't a bad winter since they were only a little below average total snowfall.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/%7Esco/clim-history/stations/msn/msn-sts-2021-22.gif

It's amazing how just last year it was only average consistent snowfall all winter and it felt like an amazing one.

Bingo! to the late stat padding events that people manipulate to say “that winter wasn’t so bad” 

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54 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Plenty of jobs available.  No one wants to work for nickels anymore.  Moved on to better business opportunities.  That's capitalism.  Our business is doing GREAT!  Good for the people getting out of the crap restaurant industries.    I'm sure the farmers will continue to suck off the teet of the government like they've been doing for years on NY and Cali's tax money.  

I never fault a person for moving onto better pay or better opportunities. Certain jobs have to be low pay,  for two reasons, your skill level and to keep things cheap, like fast food, dollar store, etc. If everyone is paid the same, who is going to work for anything. So, this fight for better pay for the folks in the service industry like restaurants, does absolutely nothing for the person screaming for more pay. If small businesses are forced to pay more, that obviously will require them to raise their prices, which in turn will cancel out your raises.  I'm making more, but, I'm paying more to eat and live. YOU'RE IN THE SAME SPOT!!

That fight for more pay is ridiculous, you choose to do that job, you know what it pays!! There's a reason it pays that.  You also can choose to better educate yourself, work your way up, learn a trade, start your own business or bar or restaurant. For example, my company, if you only know how to weed whack, you don't get $30/HR, now if you know how to construct retaining walls, outdoor kitchens, landscape lighting, irrigation systems, water features, which is what we do, you get paid because you are skilled. I pay those guys well!! You get paid based off what you bring to the table. If you want to weed whack and not learn anything else, that's fine, no problem at all, but you can't expect to get paid the same as the others that worked hard to achieve better skills. 

I'm all about if your skill is nothing, your work ethic is nothing, your motivation to improve your skill is nothing, you get paid next to nothing. It's pretty simple. You have a choice when you wake up every day. 

Farmer's should always be taken care of, they're the reason you eat everyday. 

 

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