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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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Nice to have models coming out earlier now.

 

Agreed!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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After finishing October with almost 10 inches of rain here... already at .75 for November in the first 8 hours.

 

Seriously wet now.  

 

Snoqualmie River at moderate flood stage this morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm thinking this will be a pretty interesting month with a decent chance of very low snow levels at some point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently snowing and 33 degrees at Stampeded Pass which is just shy of 4000 feet. Pretty good considering the coldest air isn't here yet. I'm glad they finally got that station back online.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We're almost in Nina territory by July in this latest update.

 

I'm betting that model has the SSTs falling too slowly. In 1998 the ENSO SSTs crashed in just a couple of months.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently snowing and 33 degrees at Stampeded Pass which is just shy of 4000 feet. Pretty good considering the coldest air isn't here yet. I'm glad they finally got that station back online.

This is Allison Pass (4400ft) SE of Hope, BC.  6.5" on the ground there. 

http://images.drivebc.ca/bchighwaycam/pub/cameras/65.jpg

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I meant the entire winter in general. Just felt like we lived in California. Yucky. 

 

Agreed. The last few years have been absolutely awful. It's very nice to have cool NW flow back. That is the #1 thing that has been sorely lacking for what seems like an eternity.

 

I really hope we never have to repeat two years this warm ever again. It has been disgusting.

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I meant the entire winter in general. Just felt like we lived in California. Yucky. 

 

This winter will end up basically the same... despite November.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Despite the earth-shattering cool down, PDX will probably manage 60 again today.

I haven't even considered turning the heat on yet.

 

I'm on the 5th floor so I'm starting to wonder if I can make it till Thanksgiving.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.

 

Yeah, really nothing remarkable about the next week or so.

 

Although I guess seeing average temps and some run of the mill mountain snow showers is a pretty remarkable feat lately.

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I'm betting that model has the SSTs falling too slowly. In 1998 the ENSO SSTs crashed in just a couple of months.

I suspect the CFS is peaking the Niño SSTs too quickly, particularly in Niño 4 and Niño 3.4. A later peak followed by a more rapid midsummer decline is more likely, IMO.

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Yeah, really nothing remarkable about the next week or so.

 

Although I guess seeing average temps and some run of the mill mountain snow showers is a pretty remarkable feat lately.

 

Wednesday will be a bit fun to track the freeze potential, as it may be our last shot for awhile in outlying areas. 

 

OLM is playing with fire now, heading into November without a freeze for just the 4th time on record. The record latest first freeze date is November 10 there, set last year. 

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Wednesday will be a bit fun to track the freeze potential, as it may be our last shot for awhile in outlying areas. 

 

OLM is playing with fire now, heading into November without a freeze for just the 4th time on record. The record latest first freeze date is November 10 there, set last year. 

 

I thought OLM was still solidly in the UHI proof -PDO phase though???

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I haven't even considered turning the heat on yet.

 

I'm on the 5th floor so I'm starting to wonder if I can make it till Thanksgiving.

I dunno. It's going to be a lot chillier in a couple of days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like a thoroughly average early November period in the coming days. Still chasing that first freeze, not even sure we'll manage that.

I don't think you are really giving this pattern change the recognition it deserves. We are going to have anomalous high heights over the GOA, anomalous low heights over the PNW, and anomalously low 850mb temps. Furthermore the ECMWF looks a bit colder than the GFS overall, with 850s dropping to -4 over SEA on day 9. I'll take it for now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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62 at PDX now.

 

Staring this incredibly chilly month off on a nice, torchy note!

It will get much better. It's only 51 here with strong onshore flow and the air mass isn't even as cold as it's going to get yet. I have no idea how PDX managed the low 60s though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It will get much better. It's only 51 here with strong onshore flow and the air mass isn't even as cold as it's going to get yet. I have no idea how PDX managed the low 60s though.

 

They really seem to maximize warmth regardless of the pattern lately.

 

Today definitely didn't look like a 62-63 on the models.

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So to recap... its miserable outside.   There is snow in the mountains.    Huge deep trough over us while the rest of the country is enjoying enviably beautiful weather.

 

And yet... I still see lots of complaining on here.   Like Eeyore.   Kicking the dirt and always pouting.   Woe is me.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Defense actually stepped up and won a close game.   Much nicer going into the bye week at 4-4.   Would have been a long 2 weeks if we had to watch Dan Bailey win it with a 55 yard field goal and fall to 3-5.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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