November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm Watch dropped for the Oregon Cascades. 

[seattleweatherguy]

latest models apparenty made the forecast discssion say winds 25 to 30 only no high winds seen bummer

[Jesse]

Winter Storm Watch dropped for the Oregon Cascades.

 

That's a shame.

[TT-SEA]

Those of us south of the 45th parallel haven't been so fortunate. Eugene has received 3.11 inches of rain since October 1st, and only 16.51 inches for the year. That is 15.70 inches below normal, year to date. The GFS has a meager 1.23 inches of rain forecasted for us over the next 7 1/2 days. Drought!

 

 

Well... we need to figure out a way to send all this rain into OR and CA.  

 

Because just like the last 2 years (with the exception of a period in late spring and early summer this year)... its been insanely wet up here and it just stops at PDX.   Dumping more rain on WA and BC is not the answer!   

 

SEA has had almost 15 inches of rain in the last 3 months.     25+ inches here.      

[TT-SEA]

Well... complaining about it being too wet or too dry or too warm hasn't had the slightest effect.

 

 

I know... WTF?

[Front Ranger]

Well... we need to figure out a way to send all this rain into OR and CA.  

 

Because just like the last 2 years (with the exception of a period in late spring and early summer this year)... its been insanely wet up here and it just stops at PDX.   Dumping more rain on WA and BC is not the answer!   

 

SEA has had almost 15 inches of rain in the last 3 months.     25+ inches here.      

 

I suggest a ginormous Nino. That usually does the trick.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last few daily CFS runs have been very wet for the west coast over the next 3 months. We can only hope given the persistent extreme drought conditions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully we can have a few very wet years. We desperately need it. 

[TT-SEA]

Liking this next front... clean and moving fast.   And it comes through at night here.   

 

In and out in a hurry instead of lingering for 4 days... spinning slowly forever.

[Jbolin]

Liking this next front... clean and moving fast.   And it comes through at night here.   

 

In and out in a hurry instead of lingering for 4 days... spinning slowly forever.

Won't someone think of the children

[stuffradio]

Those of us south of the 45th parallel haven't been so fortunate. Eugene has received 3.11 inches of rain since October 1st, and only 16.51 inches for the year. That is 15.70 inches below normal, year to date. The GFS has a meager 1.23 inches of rain forecasted for us over the next 7 1/2 days. Drought!

That's unfortunate. I'd ship you some of my rain if I could. Some forecasts had places around here getting ~1 foot of rain by next week...

[TT-SEA]

That's unfortunate. I'd ship you some of my rain if I could. Some forecasts had places around here getting ~1 foot of rain by next week...

Yeah... just annoyingly unbalanced for a long time.

[Front Ranger]

There seems to be a popular notion on here that Nov/Dec will be the best chance for the PNW to score during this Nino winter. I decided to look at the stats for the region during the biggest El Ninos most comparable to this one since 1900: 1905-6, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-8. This is based off MEI/ONI.

 

Just looking at snowfall...none of these winter featured any real snowfall in November (1905 had a little in the far north near Bellingham).

 

1905-6: Nothing in December, widespread snowfall in western WA in January with a little in the Willamette Valley as well. The Portland area had a significant snow storm in March.

 

1925-26: Region wide suck fest, no lowland snow.

 

1930-31: Region wide turd-a-pa-looza.

 

1941-42: A little Willamette Valley snow in December, then a widespread snowfall from Portland to Bellingham in January.

 

1957-58: Region wide despair.

 

1965-66: Perhaps the most underrated winter among PNW weenies. Did it have severe cold? No. But it did produce a lot of snow. Big-time snows in December up and down the I-5 corridor, except Portland which got royally screwed. The fun continued in January to a lesser extent with most places seeing some more snowfall (OLM got 10.7"), and even the Portland area managed a little. February had a small, widespread event, and then March ended the winter with a bang (15.5" at OLM, 5.5" SEA, 2.5" EUG) with just about everyone seeing a little something. One of very few winters that featured widespread lowland snowfall events every month from Dec-Mar. As our Canadian friends have pointed out, this was an even bigger winter up that way.

 

1972-73: Legendary Arctic blast in December which also brought massive snowfall to the Willamette Valley, with lesser but still decent amounts north of Portland. Another widespread, modest event in January rounded out the second snowiest winter of the Mega Nino bunch.

 

1982-83: Epic failure returns.

 

1997-98: Small event for Portland in December, then widespread snowfall from Portland area to Bellingham in January, with Portland scoring the biggest totals.

 

As Phil will be quick to point out, ENSO strength is only one factor. And this is just looking at snowfall. But it does tell us that historically, big-time Ninos are most likely to deliver lowland snowfall in January, followed by December. About half of them have been completely snowless.

[Deweydog]

I think our best shot at snow this winter will be when it's cold enough.

[bainbridgekid]

I think our best shot at snow this winter will be when it's cold enough.

And wet enough

[stuffradio]

And wet enough

I think it will be when there is a combination of cold air and moisture.

[Jbolin]

I think our best shot at snow this winter will be when it's cold enough.

And when hell freezes over, Boston breaks their all time record for cold/snow, Donald Trump tells the truth and Tom Brady retires.

[Deweydog]

And wet enough

That'll help.

 

If it's neither at any point, it's gonna be tough sledding.

[Front Ranger]

I think our best shot at snow this winter will be when it's cold enough.

 

[BLI snowman]

There seems to be a popular notion on here that Nov/Dec will be the best chance for the PNW to score during this Nino winter. I decided to look at the stats for the region during the biggest El Ninos most comparable to this one since 1900: 1905-6, 1925-26, 1930-31, 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, and 1997-8. This is based off MEI/ONI.

 

Just looking at snowfall...none of these winter featured any real snowfall in November (1905 had a little in the far north near Bellingham).

 

1905-6: Nothing in December, widespread snowfall in western WA in January with a little in the Willamette Valley as well. The Portland area had a significant snow storm in March.

 

1925-26: Region wide suck fest, no lowland snow.

 

1930-31: Region wide turd-a-pa-looza.

 

1941-42: A little Willamette Valley snow in December, then a widespread snowfall from Portland to Bellingham in January.

 

1957-58: Region wide despair.

 

1965-66: Perhaps the most underrated winter among PNW weenies. Did it have severe cold? No. But it did produce a lot of snow. Big-time snows in December up and down the I-5 corridor, except Portland which got royally screwed. The fun continued in January to a lesser extent with most places seeing some more snowfall (OLM got 10.7"), and even the Portland area managed a little. February had a small, widespread event, and then March ended the winter with a bang (15.5" at OLM, 5.5" SEA, 2.5" EUG) with just about everyone seeing a little something. One of very few winters that featured widespread lowland snowfall events every month from Dec-Mar. As our Canadian friends have pointed out, this was an even bigger winter up that way.

 

1972-73: Legendary Arctic blast in December which also brought massive snowfall to the Willamette Valley, with lesser but still decent amounts north of Portland. Another widespread, modest event in January rounded out the second snowiest winter of the Mega Nino bunch.

 

1982-83: Epic failure returns.

 

1997-98: Small event for Portland in December, then widespread snowfall from Portland area to Bellingham in January, with Portland scoring the biggest totals.

 

As Phil will be quick to point out, ENSO strength is only one factor. And this is just looking at snowfall. But it does tell us that historically, big-time Ninos are most likely to deliver lowland snowfall in January, followed by December. About half of them have been completely snowless.

 

November 1930 had some snow in Whatcom County, and several other Nino Novembers have been chilly albeit with weaker ENSO events (2006, 1994, 1977, 1911, and then 1982 had a cool November). Then of course you have the ridiculousness of November 1896, which was a strong El Nino year. So there is some connection with Ninos and November, as well as early December, cold spells.  Not huge though.

[HighlandExperience]

Looking snowy in Washington Cascades. Exciting to think a few resorts may open in the next few weeks.

 

At this point Mt Baker is pretty much a lock.

[ShawniganLake]

Many places in SW BC saw their first freeze of the season this morning.  31F here.  30F Abbotsford.  26F Campbell River. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looking snowy in Washington Cascades. Exciting to think a few resorts may open in the next few weeks.

 

At this point Mt Baker is pretty much a lock.

Big White, near Kelowna, has announced they will opening on Friday. 

 

As for the Local Hills in North Vancouver, looks like any snow they pick up later today and tonight should be washed out by the weekend.  4-8" of rain with 6000 ft snow levels. 

[stuffradio]

12Z looks much drier in the long range. We only get an inch of rain.

[Jesse]

Big White, near Kelowna, has announced they will opening on Friday.

 

As for the Local Hills in North Vancouver, looks like any snow they pick up later today and tonight should be washed out by the weekend. 4-8" of rain with 6000 ft snow levels.

Right now snow levels look to plummet again by Sunday, though.

[ShawniganLake]

Right now snow levels look to plummet again by Sunday, though.

Yep. 12z gfs has a few flurries for the mtns here Saturday night. Then cool and dry for Sunday-Tuesday. Not a big snow pattern for this area. Of course the model hasn't been very consistent with the details after Saturday.

[Phil]

As anticipated, QBO + Ewd VP expression + IO wave = Godzilla PV though December. Looks like strong full-column coupling w/ the troposphere, too.

 

Don't expect any high latitude blocking until this sucker gets knocked in January.

 

[Jesse]

As anticipated, QBO + Ewd VP expression + IO wave = Godzilla PV though December. Looks like strong full-column coupling w/ the troposphere, too.

 

Don't expect any high latitude blocking until this sucker gets knocked in January.

 

 

I feel like you say something like this every winter.

[Phil]

Uh, GFS hour 300?

That's the GEFS (in agreement with EPS).

 

Stratospheric forecasting and modeling is vastly different than of the troposphere, or even the upper troposphere. It's a very stable boundary layer. The wave activity in reference is large scale, as is the tropospheric phenomena that initiates it.

[Phil]

I feel like you say something like this every winter.

Well, the last several years have had a similar ring to them pattern-wise, right?

 

I predicted similar events in 2012-13 and 2014-15. Obviously, there were complications in the latter case (which are in fact unique to that year).

 

To rehash: We failed to achieve SSW/PV breakdown in 2013-14 and 2014-15. Both ended up roughly similar, minus other explainable variances. We did achieve the SSW (full flow reversal, in fact) in 2012-13, and subsequently observed some of the most prolific late-winter high-latitude blocking on record.

[TT-SEA]

12Z looks much drier in the long range. We only get an inch of rain.

 

Yeah... but we get about 10 inches of rain before Saturday

 

It looks INSANELY wet from Thursday - Saturday.

 

Basically a non-stop rain event the entire period.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/pcp72.120.0000.gif

[BLI snowman]

OLM hit 30 this morning, tying their mark for the latest first freeze from last year.

[Jesse]

12z Euro tries to get something interesting going toward the end, then it falls apart.

[Brennan]

Just watched Al Gore’s 10 minute segment on global warming for the first time since we were all posting at the Old Farmers Almanac forum. Who here believes our natural climate cycle is still in power over man-made global warming? I’m curious to hear from you, and your argument over CO2/TEMPERATURE relationship. 

[TT-SEA]

Just watched Al Gore’s 10 minute segment on global warming for the first time since we were all posting at the Old Farmers Almanac forum. Who here believes our natural climate cycle is still in power over man-made global warming? I’m curious to hear from you, and your argument over CO2/TEMPERATURE relationship. 

 

 

Good Lord... talk about opening a can of worms.

 

Natural climate variability is always ultimately in charge.    Our existence in the universe is so fragile.   And our climate is so vulnerable to things like volcanic explosions and asteroids and solar activity.    One big volcanic explosion somewhere in the world and we will be very thankful for any CO2 we put in the atmosphere as a counter-balance.      And there WILL be another ice age (actually many of them ahead)... in fact we are technically in the warm period of an ice age right now.    So tell me if we are in charge of the climate when this land we occupy is buried under a mile of ice in the relatively near future.  

 

The Earth has been a frozen ball in the past... and has gone through insanely warm periods during its 4 billion years of existence.   And this will continue for another few billion years.   We are here for a brief second of time.   

[Brennan]

By the way. I got engaged on October 29th, and it was my future wife’s idea to have our engagement photos done in the snow at Mt Baker... Keeper? 

[Brennan]

Good Lord... talk about opening a can of worms.

 

Natural climate variability is always ultimately in charge.    Our existence in the universe is so fragile.   And our climate is so vulnerable to things like volcanic explosions and asteroids and solar activity.    One big volcanic explosion somewhere in the world and we will be very thankful for any CO2 we put in the atmosphere as a counter-balance.      There will be another ice age... in fact we are technically in the warm period of an ice age right now.    So tell me if we are in charge of the climate when this land we occupy is buried under a mile of ice in the relatively near future.  

Thanks for the perspective. Got off my rocker there for a moment. 

[Timmy]

This looks cool

[Jesse]

Good stuff:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=332

 

Locations in Europe and North America absolutely blowing away late season warmth records this month so far. 

[Jesse]

Thanks for the perspective. Got off my rocker there for a moment.

I think it really depends on who you ask. If there were a type of climate change occurring that would lead to colder summers and gloomier, colder, wetter weather overall for the foothills east of Seattle it would be a huge disaster and reason for panic. Perhaps even relocation.

 

But since the type of climate change we are seeing generally leads to longer warm seasons, hotter summers, rain events ultimately centered further and further north, etc, it is totally fine and anyone who is worried about it is a fool who doesn't understand natural cycles.

 

In fact, we need to keep pouring as much CO2 as we can into the atmosphere to offset a huge volcanic eruption that may occur at some point down the road. Airtight logic.