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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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2006-07 was nothing close to this Nino.

No, but it's a good stratosphere/PV analog. Obviously, ENSO is also a major player in macroscale mass flux/RW propagation and dispersion in the upper levels, but I suspect that the overall progression in the NAM will mirror 06-07 to an extent.

 

Noting the changes to the BDC/O^3 flux over the last 15-20yrs, it's tough to use analogs like 1982-83 and 1997-98 for projections into latter half of winter, in my opinion.

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The 12z GFS ensemble has 8 members that drop 850s to -10C or lower over SEA sometime in the 6 to 14 day period. Not a bad percentage out of 20 members.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No, but it's a good stratosphere/PV analog. Obviously, ENSO is also a major player in macroscale mass flux/RW propagation and dispersion in the upper levels, but I suspect that the overall progression in the NAM will mirror 06-07 to an extent.

 

Noting the changes to the BDC/O^3 flux over the last 15-20yrs, it's tough to use analogs like 1982-83 and 1997-98 for projections into latter half of winter..

Not to mention neither of those saw the massive positive height / surface pressure anoms over the NC and NE Pacific during November like we are this year. This strong Nino is a different animal than those two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF ensemble mean at day 10 has 850mb temps of -8C to -12C up in Canada the Yukon.     Not really arctic.      Could make for a beautiful Thanksgiving though.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015111412!!chart.gif

 

These kind of just cold enough setups can some times lead the best kind of results.. Major arctic is often to dry... Interesting to watch

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In some ways my favorite winter of this century so far, and it was indeed a significant El Nino. Jan 2007 had the only real period of cold temps, clear skies, and snow on the ground since late Jan 1996. The lack of clear and cold weather after snowfall has been a really irritating aspect of this century so far.

 

I guess it depends on how long of a period you're talking about. I remember one clear, cold day with snow on the ground in January 2004 in Tacoma. Also, wasn't there at least one clear day after snow with Nov 2010 or Feb 2011?

 

Of course, the Willamette Valley got a bunch of clear/cold days with snow on the ground in Dec 2013.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Looks like Niño 3.4 SSTs have hit +3.12C. Holy s**t.

Wow!

 

That is pretty crazy. I think the fact the SOI has been rising rapidly may be telling it us it's near peak though. With a Nino this strong who's to say if it will create the usual El Nino effects or not. It may be something like the AO being so high In January 1989 it resulted in a massive Arctic blast in the US whereas high AO would normally inhibit such an occurrence.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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These kind of just cold enough setups can some times lead the best kind of results.. Major arctic is often to dry... Interesting to watch

It certainly will be interesting. The ECMWF ensemble has been a bit unstable lately. Lots of spread right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I guess it depends on how long of a period you're talking about. I remember one clear, cold day with snow on the ground in January 2004 in Tacoma. Also, wasn't there at least one clear day after snow with Nov 2010 or Feb 2011?

 

Of course, the Willamette Valley got a bunch of clear/cold days with snow on the ground in Dec 2013.

2 days in 11 years (aside from Jan 2007)! It used to happen much more often.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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OMG.

 

The 12Z ECMWF shows dry conditions and sunny skies for the most part from Thursday - Saturday!   

 

Holy crap.   You mean its possible to NOT have moisture fall from the sky here??     Very much doubt this run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Couple of random Saturday thoughts...

 

First of all, can those of you who apply believe it's been 10 years around this place?  10 ******* years???  10 years and those who have spent said 10 years living in an upslope-enhanced rain forest find November rain to be noteworthy!

 

Also, given the fact he's been my namesake (save for the MIke Hunt ridiculousness thanks to Mallow), the name Dewey lives on, but as of this morning Dewey does not.  Here's a weenie tribute:

 

Dewey came to us during the spring of 2002 with high hopes on the heels of a VERY chilly March which featured sticking snow and such.  That optimism was short-lived however as the winter of 2002-03 set the tone for an anxiety-ridden adolescence and fears of rapid climate change.  That winter was sure mild!  I tried like hell provide him with perspective and such, but it wasn't until November 2003 when a little wet bulb assistance set in motion a weenie awakening!  This set the table for a frustrating four days of paws-on-ice-on-top-of-snow in January 2004.  He absolutely HATED that.  Dewey endured many, many coast range snow shadows in his day, was nearly killed during the coastal superstorm on 12-3-07, feared rapid climate change once again on 4-19-08, saw the face of god on 7-10-08, the kids buried him in snow in December 2008 and he panted heavily in July 2009.  Dewey's weather knowledged sharpened later in life as he marveled at the -30c 850mb temps in December 2012 (or was it 2013???), and ultimately was done in by the last couple years' warmth.  He ultimately died of a broken weenie spirit.  

 

Anyway, all kidding aside it's a pretty somber household today.  We have (had) three dogs now, but Dewey's been a constant in both my kids' lives and it's a tough pill to swallow.  RIP old friend. 

 

 

Great story Matt.   Sorry for your loss.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Couple of random Saturday thoughts...

 

First of all, can those of you who apply believe it's been 10 years around this place?  10 ******* years???  10 years and those who have spent said 10 years living in an upslope-enhanced rain forest still find November rain to be noteworthy!

 

Also, given the fact he's been my namesake (save for the MIke Hunt ridiculousness thanks to Mallow), the name Dewey lives on, but as of this morning Dewey does not.  Here's a weenie tribute:

 

Dewey came to us during the spring of 2002 with high hopes on the heels of a VERY chilly March which featured sticking snow and such.  That optimism was short-lived however as the winter of 2002-03 set the tone for an anxiety-ridden adolescence and fears of rapid climate change.  That winter was sure mild!  I tried like hell provide him with perspective and such, but it wasn't until November 2003 when a little wet bulb assistance set in motion a weenie awakening!  This set the table for a frustrating four days of paws-on-ice-on-top-of-snow in January 2004.  He absolutely HATED that.  Dewey endured many, many coast range snow shadows in his day, was nearly killed during the coastal superstorm on 12-3-07, feared rapid climate change once again on 4-19-08, saw the face of god on 7-10-08, the kids buried him in snow in December 2008 and he panted heavily in July 2009.  Dewey's weather knowledged sharpened later in life as he marveled at the -30c 850mb temps in December 2012 (or was it 2013???), and ultimately was done in by the last couple years' warmth.  He ultimately died of a broken weenie spirit.  

 

Anyway, all kidding aside it's a pretty somber household today.  We have (had) three dogs now, but Dewey's been a constant in both my kids' lives and it's a tough pill to swallow.  RIP old friend. 

So sorry for your loss. I just wish dogs could live to 50.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Couple of random Saturday thoughts...

 

First of all, can those of you who apply believe it's been 10 years around this place? 10 ******* years??? 10 years and those who have spent said 10 years living in an upslope-enhanced rain forest still find November rain to be noteworthy!

 

Also, given the fact he's been my namesake (save for the MIke Hunt ridiculousness thanks to Mallow), the name Dewey lives on, but as of this morning Dewey does not. Here's a weenie tribute:

 

Dewey came to us during the spring of 2002 with high hopes on the heels of a VERY chilly March which featured sticking snow and such. That optimism was short-lived however as the winter of 2002-03 set the tone for an anxiety-ridden adolescence and fears of rapid climate change. That winter was sure mild! I tried like hell provide him with perspective and such, but it wasn't until November 2003 when a little wet bulb assistance set in motion a weenie awakening! This set the table for a frustrating four days of paws-on-ice-on-top-of-snow in January 2004. He absolutely HATED that. Dewey endured many, many coast range snow shadows in his day, was nearly killed during the coastal superstorm on 12-3-07, feared rapid climate change once again on 4-19-08, saw the face of god on 7-10-08, the kids buried him in snow in December 2008 and he panted heavily in July 2009. Dewey's weather knowledged sharpened later in life as he marveled at the -30c 850mb temps in December 2012 (or was it 2013???), and ultimately was done in by the last couple years' warmth. He ultimately died of a broken weenie spirit.

 

Anyway, all kidding aside it's a pretty somber household today. We have (had) three dogs now, but Dewey's been a constant in both my kids' lives and it's a tough pill to swallow. RIP old friend.

Sorry to hear that Matt. They are not with us nearly long enough.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Couple of random Saturday thoughts...

 

First of all, can those of you who apply believe it's been 10 years around this place? 10 ******* years??? 10 years and those who have spent said 10 years living in an upslope-enhanced rain forest still find November rain to be noteworthy!

 

Also, given the fact he's been my namesake (save for the MIke Hunt ridiculousness thanks to Mallow), the name Dewey lives on, but as of this morning Dewey does not. Here's a weenie tribute:

 

Dewey came to us during the spring of 2002 with high hopes on the heels of a VERY chilly March which featured sticking snow and such. That optimism was short-lived however as the winter of 2002-03 set the tone for an anxiety-ridden adolescence and fears of rapid climate change. That winter was sure mild! I tried like hell provide him with perspective and such, but it wasn't until November 2003 when a little wet bulb assistance set in motion a weenie awakening! This set the table for a frustrating four days of paws-on-ice-on-top-of-snow in January 2004. He absolutely HATED that. Dewey endured many, many coast range snow shadows in his day, was nearly killed during the coastal superstorm on 12-3-07, feared rapid climate change once again on 4-19-08, saw the face of god on 7-10-08, the kids buried him in snow in December 2008 and he panted heavily in July 2009. Dewey's weather knowledged sharpened later in life as he marveled at the -30c 850mb temps in December 2012 (or was it 2013???), and ultimately was done in by the last couple years' warmth. He ultimately died of a broken weenie spirit.

 

Anyway, all kidding aside it's a pretty somber household today. We have (had) three dogs now, but Dewey's been a constant in both my kids' lives and it's a tough pill to swallow. RIP old friend.

Oh these things are never easy!! Hard times but wonderful memories. We have had our share of many losses but the wonderful memories live on... Sorry for your loss! :(

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1977 is probably the only one that fits the bill, and I doubt Tim even knew about that year.

 

 

Perfect... so warm Novembers are great for winter and Novembers that are cold with lowland snow are also great for winter.   We must always have awesome winters!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What an epic collapse by the Huskies today...reminds me of a few epic arctic blast cancels over the years. Anyway here at the White House it is currently raining moderately with a temp of 44 degrees.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Perfect... so warm Novembers are great for winter and Novembers that are cold with lowland snow are also great for winter.   We must always have awesome winters!  

 

Historically there isn't a huge correlation one way or another. You have frigid Novembers that were followed by subsequent cold months in years like 1978 and 1985, and you have cold Novembers in other years that are followed by mediocrity the rest of the way (1993, 1977). And sometimes warm Novembers precede great winters (1949, 2008) and sometimes they don't (1999, 2002).  The climate is a bit too chaotic to sum it up neatly with such connections.

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Historically there isn't a huge correlation one way or another. You have frigid Novembers that were followed by subsequent cold months in years like 1978 and 1985, and you have cold Novembers in other years that are followed by mediocrity the rest of the way (1993, 1977). And sometimes warm Novembers precede great winters (1949, 2008) and sometimes they don't (1999, 2002).  The climate is a bit too chaotic to sum it up neatly with such connections.

 

 

Hmmmm.   Interesting.   Great points.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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he NWS has chosen to ignore all of the models showing lowland snowfall. They would have been wise to at least mention it. Almost no doubt they will bust high on the mins tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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the 330 afd does not even say a single word. hmmm they not buying into it?

Yea, they are using the HRRR for the low moving up but not what it shows for accumulating snowfall in the lowlands.  Which the HRRR is showing a bit more widespread snow spotty locations on the coast then inland.

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Couple of random Saturday thoughts...

 

First of all, can those of you who apply believe it's been 10 years around this place? 10 ******* years??? 10 years and those who have spent said 10 years living in an upslope-enhanced rain forest still find November rain to be noteworthy!

 

Also, given the fact he's been my namesake (save for the MIke Hunt ridiculousness thanks to Mallow), the name Dewey lives on, but as of this morning Dewey does not. Here's a weenie tribute:

 

Dewey came to us during the spring of 2002 with high hopes on the heels of a VERY chilly March which featured sticking snow and such. That optimism was short-lived however as the winter of 2002-03 set the tone for an anxiety-ridden adolescence and fears of rapid climate change. That winter was sure mild! I tried like hell provide him with perspective and such, but it wasn't until November 2003 when a little wet bulb assistance set in motion a weenie awakening! This set the table for a frustrating four days of paws-on-ice-on-top-of-snow in January 2004. He absolutely HATED that. Dewey endured many, many coast range snow shadows in his day, was nearly killed during the coastal superstorm on 12-3-07, feared rapid climate change once again on 4-19-08, saw the face of god on 7-10-08, the kids buried him in snow in December 2008 and he panted heavily in July 2009. Dewey's weather knowledged sharpened later in life as he marveled at the -30c 850mb temps in December 2012 (or was it 2013???), and ultimately was done in by the last couple years' warmth. He ultimately died of a broken weenie spirit.

 

Anyway, all kidding aside it's a pretty somber household today. We have (had) three dogs now, but Dewey's been a constant in both my kids' lives and it's a tough pill to swallow. RIP old friend.

I'm sorry for your loss. Losing a pet sucks.

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1977 is probably the only one that fits the bill, and I doubt Tim even knew about that year.

For all intents and purposes, 2014-15 was an El Niño winter.

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Just can't remember how the HRRR did last year with snow.   I am thinking it was too aggressive. 

If I remember correctly it did ok a couple of times, but overall as the time frames got closer to when it showed snow it would back off the closer we got.

 

Kind of funny it is showing accumulating snow over the ocean just off the coast.

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We'll see if it stays that way. 

 

The warm air is very close and may wobble back North before it slides back South later this evening.

Yep been in the mid 30's with rain at Stevens since 11 AM.   :(

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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HRRR showing potential for a trace to an inch over a wide area, none over me but it is showing some fun chances tomorrow morning.  This is total accumulation through 3 PM tomorrow.

 

attachicon.gifhrrr.png

 

I think this has to be overdone...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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HRRR showing potential for a trace to an inch over a wide area, none over me but it is showing some fun chances tomorrow morning.  This is total accumulation through 3 PM tomorrow.

 

attachicon.gifhrrr.png

This is a useful model but the color scheme is a disgrace.

 

So hard to distinguish between 0.1" and 3" when it's all f***ing blue.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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