November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Was a biting cold day, sitting at 41 degrees which is my high for the day so far! Most of the day we were at 39 with showers and gusty winds. Morning low was 32.

[TT-SEA]

I didn't say it was imminent, just at least back on the table. We'll see...

 

 

For what?

 

I have done none of the complaining I did in my younger days.     I have honestly come to accept the nature of our climate and use vacations as an outlet.   And we can move if we don't like it.   We get letters all the time from realtors representing people wanting to buy homes in our area..    We are fine.     The summer of 2017 could be a real bummer.   Already planning for that one.   

[MossMan]

Heading over the pass early tomorrow morning...should be a fun drive! If they are open that is, seems like the first big snow always bring crashes and jackknifed semi's up there.

[seattleweatherguy]

Let's talk about mountain snow and high winds

[MossMan]

Let's talk about mountain snow and high winds

And possible arctic air next week!

[snow_wizard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk74WprmZxY

 

This would definitely be worse.

 

 

Oh...that picture makes me cringe.

[TT-SEA]

Let's talk about mountain snow and high winds

 

 

There is mountain snow right now and tomorrow will be windy.  

[Jbolin]

Heading over the pass early tomorrow morning...should be a fun drive! If they are open that is, seems like the first big snow always bring crashes and jackknifed semi's up there.

rain, you'll be fine

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see a model consensus that we will be in a pattern in 8 days that will at least have a shot at bringing some winter weather to our area.  All in all this is shaping up to be a pretty dynamic and active month.

[MossMan]

rain, you'll be fine

I'm worried about the aftermath if it gets bad tonight, I have heard many different times for the switchover to rain. The first (and only) big snow last year there were so many wrecks it took hours to clear them all. We shall see!

[TT-SEA]

My son is obsessed with tracking mountain snow totals... desperately wants to ski.  

[Phil]

This would definitely be worse.

 

That looks extremely painful.

[snow_wizard]

There is mountain snow right now and tomorrow will be windy.  

 

Utterly profound!

[TT-SEA]

Utterly profound!

 

Thanks!   He said to discuss it.  

[bainbridgekid]

Since it hasn't been posted. High Wind Warning finally was posted for most of Western Washington, including Seattle.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
621 PM PST MON NOV 16 2015

WAZ509-511-555-556-558-559-171315-
/O.UPG.KSEW.HW.A.0002.151117T1400Z-151118T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.HW.W.0004.151117T1300Z-151118T0200Z/
TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
621 PM PST MON NOV 16 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM PST TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WIND...SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...EVERETT...SHELTON...BREMERTON...AND
SEATTLE.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS CAN DOWN TREES...DAMAGE PROPERTY...AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

[Front Ranger]

Nice to see a model consensus that we will be in a pattern in 8 days that will at least have a shot at bringing some winter weather to our area.  All in all this is shaping up to be a pretty dynamic and active month.

 

If there's one month you can count on to be fairly interesting, tough to beat November. Especially the past 15 years. A couple of snoozers in there, but a lot more very dynamic months.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I never have said anything about a drought.

[FroYoBro]

I'm glad the temperature is going back up right now. Today honestly felt pretty uncomfortable. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will take this rain over the sweat box summer we had. Keep that crap in California.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be some intense rain tomorrow afternoon with the cold front... and very quick drying behind it.     Extremely dynamic day.

 

Here is 1-4 p.m.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_024_precip_p03.gif

 

And then by 7 p.m. its gone... here is the 7-10 p.m. timeframe.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_030_precip_p03.gif

[TT-SEA]

I will take this rain over the sweat box summer we had. Keep that crap in California.

 

Strange thing to say.    Both are aspects of our climate.     And also represent what we call "seasons".

 

Just looking over August... SEA only had 1 day over 90 (the first day of the month).   And many days in the 70s and a couple days in the 60s.   And it was the 4th wettest August in history.   So we had plenty of rain as well.  

 

95% of the country (and most of the world) would call that cool summer weather... and pleasant.    When we have cool, wet summer weather we should all chant "keep that crap in Alaska".  

[TT-SEA]

I'm glad the temperature is going back up right now. Today honestly felt pretty uncomfortable. 

 

 

Are you being serious?    Today was great for the mountains.   

[snow_wizard]

On the 0z GFS you can see our coming cold snap is already unfolding over the GOA by day 6.  It will be interesting to see how the details unfold in the coming days.

[snow_wizard]

I'm glad the temperature is going back up right now. Today honestly felt pretty uncomfortable. 

 

Are you serious?

[bainbridgekid]

I could get use to lows taking this track.

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That low placment would be snow for some

[MossMan]

I could get use to lows taking this track.

 

slp.60.0000.gif

Looks like a Nov. 1996 track...had about 10" of snow that time!

[Phil]

On the 0z GFS you can see our coming cold snap is already unfolding over the GOA by day 6. It will be interesting to see how the details unfold in the coming days.

Verdict: PV wins, deflects NPAC wave break. Probably the most likely outcome, IMO.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Verdict: PV wins, deflects NPAC wave break. Probably the most likely outcome, IMO.

explain

[MossMan]

explain

I think that means good for us. Could be wrong though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think that means good for us. Could be wrong though.

well I assumed that too but... well ya know.

[Phil]

I think that means good for us. Could be wrong though.

Unfortunately, not good. The NPAC wave break is the conduit for your downstream meridional response. In other words, flat, zonal flow is your end result.

[MossMan]

Unfortunately, not good. The NPAC wave break is the conduit for your downstream meridional response. In other words, no upstream amplification = zonal flow.

Why don't you ever give us good news??? Just kidding, thanks for the info.

[Phil]

Why don't you ever give us good news??? Just kidding, thanks for the info.

Haha, I'm rooting for anything interesting. I hate zonal flow.

[TT-SEA]

I could get use to lows taking this track.

 

slp.60.0000.gif

 

 

No doubt.   It just never seems to happen.

 

I bet that thing comes in north of that.    Would be so nice if OR could take lows on a regular basis in the winter.   

 

That path would also be great for the mountains.

[seattleweatherguy]

I predict gusts to 50 mph around my house

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian is better than its 12Z run for next week.   

[Front Ranger]

Strange thing to say.    Both are aspects of our climate.     And also represent what we call "seasons".

 

Just looking over August... SEA only had 1 day over 90 (the first day of the month).   And many days in the 70s and a couple days in the 60s.   And it was the 4th wettest August in history.   So we had plenty of rain as well.

 

95% of the country (and most of the world) would call that cool summer weather... and pleasant.    When we have cool, wet summer weather we should all chant "keep that crap in Alaska".  

 

Yeah, but almost all of the rain fell in 4 days that month. So while the total ended up wet, it wasn't really a rainy August. 

 

Plus, over half the days were 80+. It was definitely a warm, summery month.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but almost all of the rain fell in 4 days that month. So while the total ended up wet, it wasn't really a rainy August. 

 

A nice month overall... lots of rain and lots of sun.     PNW at its best.   He makes it sound like it was 118 degrees every day the entire summer.      It was over 90 for about 2 hours the entire month in Seattle.   33% of the days had highs at or below 75... 3 days were in the 60s.    Most Californians would love to have such nice weather in August.   Keep what crap in CA??

[HighlandExperience]

A nice month overall... some cloudy days and cooler weather... lots of rain and lots of sun.     PNW at its best.   He makes it sound like it was 118 degrees every day the entire summer.      It was over 90 for about 2 hours the entire month in Seattle.    Californians would love to have such nice weather in August.   Keep what crap in CA??

 

Keep all the smog, we already have the dirty strip malls and overpriced homes. 

 

No doubt.   It just never seems to happen.

 

I bet that thing comes in north of that.    Would be so nice if OR could take lows on a regular basis in the winter.   

 

That path would also be great for the mountains.

 

Yup that is what is frustrating most of the time.