snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The GEM is really nice. It shows good Fraser outflow and possible snow around day 7 to 8 and then a ridge moves in right over us locking the cold air in at the surface. The GFS has all of the right players, but the details don't play out quite right. Going to be an interesting model ride the next few days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The only period of time that was wrong in the summer was that period with all the smoke. Everything else was pretty much perfect. We all knew it would rain here. Now for some comedy, The weather network says I'll get 3" of snow from Sat-Monday, and it will snow in some form almost every other day until the following Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Keep all the smog, we already have the dirty strip malls and overpriced homes. Yup that is what is frustrating most of the time. CA is not nearly as smoggy as it was when we lived there in the 1990s. Even L.A, is nothing like it was back then. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 There's been a lot of discussion on here in the past about SEA's snowfall totals not really representing Seattle proper very well (or at least downtown Seattle near sea level), but what is often overlooked is the significant difference in overall precip between SEA and Seattle proper. Just as a recent example, SEA has received over 1.5" more rain than WFO Seattle since Oct 1. And that's not an anomaly. Historically, SEA averages 38.3" of precip/year, while stations near or in downtown have averaged around 35" overall. 3.3" a year might not sound like a lot, but that's a 9% difference...fairly significant difference for a small distance. Micro-climates fascinate me. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 This is the best ensemble mean yet for the possible Thanksgiving cold snap. At least half of the members show 850s dropping to -8C or lower. The operational is a warm outlier. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 There's been a lot of discussion on here in the past about SEA's snowfall totals not really representing Seattle proper very well (or at least downtown Seattle near sea level), but what is often overlooked is the significant difference in overall precip between SEA and Seattle proper. Just as a recent example, SEA has received over 1.5" more rain than WFO Seattle since Oct 1. And that's not an anomaly. Historically, SEA averages 38.3" of precip/year, while stations near or in downtown have averaged around 35" overall. 3.3" a year might not sound like a lot, but that's a 9% difference...fairly significant difference for a small distance. Micro-climates fascinate me. My average here is about 48 inches a year. Seattle proper is considerably drier than where a lot of people around here actually live. It always kind of drives me nuts when people try to use the Seattle numbers to prove it actually isn't THAT wet around here. The same goes for winter temperatures also. It runs considerably colder in most places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The new Canadian ensemble is by far the best yet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 There's been a lot of discussion on here in the past about SEA's snowfall totals not really representing Seattle proper very well (or at least downtown Seattle near sea level), but what is often overlooked is the significant difference in overall precip between SEA and Seattle proper. Just as a recent example, SEA has received over 1.5" more rain than WFO Seattle since Oct 1. And that's not an anomaly. Historically, SEA averages 38.3" of precip/year, while stations near or in downtown have averaged around 35" overall. 3.3" a year might not sound like a lot, but that's a 9% difference...fairly significant difference for a small distance. Micro-climates fascinate me.That's the case with Portland too, PDX is noticeably drier than most places in the Metro area. Mark Nelsen had a post on this a couple months ago: https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/09/06/a-neat-old-metro-rainfall-map/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just curious what are the wind maps showing like the wrf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Crazy pattern... not sure if its good or bad. But it is odd looking. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111700!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Days 8-9 on the Euro is definitely a borderline snowstorm pattern for someone. Definitely maybe. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just curious what are the wind maps showing like the wrf http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.21.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS operational is a big warm outlier around Thanksgiving. Quite a few cold members. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The ECMWF is trending in a very sweet direction. Big SE ridge and at least some PV influence reaching into SW Canada. Quite a chilly run for sure. Looks like snow going into the cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The ECMWF is trending in a very sweet direction. Big SE ridge and at least some PV influence reaching into SW Canada. Quite a chilly run for sure. Looks like snow going into the cold. It's Phil vs. the Euro. After this, we'll know who to trust for the rest of the winter. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_wgsfc.21.0000.gifThat only shows 35 to 40 mph gusts. For Me and seattle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Days 8-9 on the Euro is definitely a borderline snowstorm pattern for someone. Definitely maybe. It does actually... looking at the last frame of the detailed map at 180 hours (next Tuesday morning) it shows snow across much of SW WA and very close to Portland. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 In the FWIW department... pretty much every November cold snap worth anything in the last 100 years has featured at least some snow in the Seattle area. I will do a post with details if things continue to look good tomorrow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Definitely an intriguing setup on the Euro. Too bad any one run of any one model currently are about as useful as Charlie Sheen's immune system. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 In the FWIW department... pretty much every November cold snap worth anything in the last 100 years has featured at least some snow in the Seattle area. I will do a post with details if things continue to look good tomorrow. Seattle tends to do way better than down here this time of year. Lows overwhelmingly track to our north before December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Definitely an intriguing setup on the Euro. Too bad any one run of any one model currently are about as useful as Charlie Sheen's immune system.Hilarious Charlie Sheen reference. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I am not very excited... yet... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I am not very excited... yet...Keep us posted! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Phil will prob end up being right about the PV issue. It's been rather well consolidated thus far in the autumn. Getting it to squeeze in our favor is probably too much too ask...but that doesn't mean I won't root for it. Having a GOA ridge placement far enough west (at 192 hours on the Euro) is where things get the most interesting. It's where you get cold and moisture...as opposed to just cold. But hey...overrunning storms can be pretty epic as well. Just hasn't been too cold here as of yet. Other notes: tonight is the first snowfall. Running about two weeks late for a normal season. RAAM is forecasted to decline over the next couple weeks along with the MJO staying in phase 2/3. Solar activity remains relatively low compared with max. ENSO SSTs look close to hitting their max this go around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 We're in dire need of Ron's cautious optimism right now. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls. I think the operational is overthinking it. I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs. Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls. I think the operational is overthinking it. I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs. Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.Why is this hard to imagine?> as that is almost alway the case the last few years. Actually, quite common in how things play out in the models. I am cheering for it to be good but just do not buy it. Marginal, at best ... coolish and wet. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 ECMWF ensemble mean is totally different than the operational run for next week. Not a good sign at all. Ensemble mean looks more like GFS and Canadian. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 ECMWF ensemble mean is totally different than the operational run for next week. Not a good sign at all. Ensemble mean looks more like GFS and Canadian.Yeah... does not look good -- Exactly the gradual trend on how things have historically played out over the past many years. tease and tease away... bummer but not surprised and somewhat expected. *sigh* Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls. I think the operational is overthinking it. I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs. Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right.Isn't the operational the one that runs at the highest resolution? It's not like all members of the ensemble are on board. Note too that the mean is skewed due to the Arctic members being so cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 06z GFS ensemble is the best yet. -8C mean for PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 The 6z ensemble is fantastic, but the operational still sucks balls. I think the operational is overthinking it. I would be very surprised to see the operational GFS not come around in the next couple of runs. Hard to imagine everything else being wrong ad it being right. I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. You're thinking too much. It's windy here right now. It's nothing damaging yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do. If the GFS could think, it would be making this face most of the time: Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 If the GFS could think, it would be making this face most of the time: GFS has been SO bad lately. It's almost not even worth looking at anymore. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS has been SO bad lately. It's almost not even worth looking at anymore.I'm guessing the 12z run didn't show that Black Friday transistion event? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I don't think the model thinks...It computes as it is programmed to do.Wonder if that means it's supporting Rubio? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z Canadian... one week from today. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I like how chilly the 12z GFS is Friday through the weekend. May finally see our first frost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z GFS for Thansgiving... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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