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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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I am no expert but that does not loo like a snow pattern

 

 

No... but it is definitely nice weather.

 

There is still a strong signal for a blocking period in all the models which is good.   Details will become more clear in the next couple days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well I guess the Canadian isn't bad.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just about to one foot of rain here this month... already above normal for the entire month of November.

 

A drier pattern is likely ahead regardless of the details.

 

WRF shows gusty, dry east winds and sunshine here on Friday.    I love that kind of weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Canadian shows 850mb temps getting down -12º in the Seattle area and -10º in the Portland area. Pretty impressive for late November.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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It's Phil vs. the Euro. After this, we'll know who to trust for the rest of the winter. ;)

Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

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Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to pinch off, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

 

El Nino effect

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Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area?

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El Nino effect

Partially thanks to El Niño-influenced Pacific circulation, but really just typical polar/mid-latitude jet interaction(s).

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Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area?

I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now. :)

 

If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect the Arctic front will reach the border.

 

A lot can change from now until then. I'm just making a general prediction based on what I know and have observed in the past. What ultimately results is anyone's guess, given the complicated nature of these interactions.

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I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now. :)

 

If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect it may reach the border.

Thanks. I just want snow for Christmas. :)

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Some gusts so far:

 

SEA: 40 mph

Bremerton: 51 mph

Everett: 49 mph

 

Breezy but nothing too exciting yet here in Mountlake Terrace.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Thanks. I just want snow for Christmas. :)

At least you guys have a chance at some solid early season activity. I've punted both November and December in my neck of the woods, and will probably end up getting most of my snow in February and March, yet again.

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12Z ECMWF still shows blocking.

 

Wednesday...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif

 

And Thanksgiving...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF is warmer than its 00Z run.    Still shows blocking but not nearly as interesting.    Here is Thanksgiving...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif

Oooomega

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Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV.

 

However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.

 

So raging zonal flow is delayed but not denied.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Well the wind sure has been underwhelming here in Eastgate/Bellevue. Nothing but slightly breezy conditions with the occasional gust. Hoping it will pick up over the next hour or so before it starts to die down this afternoon.

Well the wind sure has been underwhelming here in Eastgate/Bellevue. Nothing but slightly breezy conditions with the occasional gust. Hoping it will pick up over the next hour or so before it starts to die down this afternoon.

It's all focused to the north for now. Gusts have been pretty steady in the 55mph range around southern Vancouver island and the Fraser valley. 55000 customers without power at last check. I have lost mine twice today already. Heard reports of barn roofs being damaged and torn off out towards Chilliwack.

Here is a notice from BChydro.

image.png

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