November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Still calm here and rain stopped... actually see blue sky and the sunset.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still some intrigue with the ensembles...Not really paying attention until the operational shows something. It is being remarkably consistent. 

[Jesse]

Still some intrigue with the ensembles...Not really paying attention until the operational shows something. It is being remarkably consistent.

Euro and Euro ensembles look like some sort of continentally influenced troughing next week.

 

I am not really feeling a full fledged blast. Some east winds with highs in the mid-40s and lows in the 20s would be nice though. I would say that is very possible.

[MossMan]

Took an hour to get home from work...a 15min drive. Trees down everywhere and no power anywhere that I saw. This is quite the windstorm!

[bainbridgekid]

Just lost power here at school. Guess that's my cue to go home!

 

The South wind wasn't that strong here today but around 4:30 the wind abruptly switched to NW and REALLY ramped up. I saw tons of branches falling amd blowing a long way away from their tree right before the power went out. Felt like a war zone driving home with so many branches falling and blowing around. No power here at home either.

[ShawniganLake]

Winds gusted to 75mph in the Fraser Valley today 

 

[Deweydog]

Gullywasher!

[FroYoBro]

That front was pretty impressive. Intense rain and some pretty high winds. 

[MossMan]

Going to be in the dark for a while, saw two power poles snapped with wires down all over near my house. And my wife is stuck in Everett. She tried several routes and no traffic is moving.

[Front Ranger]

The problem now is that today was pretty hard on mountain snowpack... and now it looks much drier for the next 10 days.    There will be some mountain snow but not enough to open all of the ski resorts.    Sounds like last year.    

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Winds gusted to 75mph in the Fraser Valley today 

 

Nice to see the models weren't off their rockers with this storm, despite the unusual setup. Bummer about all the damage, hopefully no one was seriously hurt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

116 mph gust at mission ridge ski resort. Not to bad.

[bainbridgekid]

250,000 without power in Western Washington according to King5.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

All of port orchard and south is out. Largest outage I've seen there since 1996 snow storm.

[seattleweatherguy]

250,000 without power in Western Washington according to King5.

No power here

[bainbridgekid]

116 mph gust at mission ridge ski resort. Not to bad.

Make that 135 mph!

 

http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/missionridge/now/

[crf450ish]

Hey everyone. I used to be a member of this forum back in 2008-2009. Learned a bunch just from lurking around. I have since moved from western wa to eastern wa, specifically Fruitland. My elevation is 2,359. Today was an eventful day, windy all day and picked up substantially as the day led on. Highest gust was 74 at my house. This time last night it was 28 degrees and snowing, woke up to 2" of snow melting very fast as the temp had climbed up to 39 by 7am. By noon it was all gone and dry and sustained 40 mph winds gusting to 60 or so.

 

I am stoked to see what this winter has in store as we are in a very strong El Nino pattern from I have learned recently. What are your guys' predictions for major events over here? I appreciate it. 

[Jesse]

Hey everyone. I used to be a member of this forum back in 2008-2009. Learned a bunch just from lurking around. I have since moved from western wa to eastern wa, specifically Fruitland. My elevation is 2,359. Today was an eventful day, windy all day and picked up substantially as the day led on. Highest gust was 74 at my house. This time last night it was 28 degrees and snowing, woke up to 2" of snow melting very fast as the temp had climbed up to 39 by 7am. By noon it was all gone and dry and sustained 40 mph winds gusting to 60 or so.

 

I am stoked to see what this winter has in store as we are in a very strong El Nino pattern from I have learned recently. What are your guys' predictions for major events over here? I appreciate it. 

 

Welcome to the new forum, and keep posting. You are from a very unique part of the state!

[TT-SEA]

Quite the hailstorm here in the last 10 minutes.   Ground is white.

 

Still calm.   Don't think wind ever got above 5 mph today here.   However... the roads down below us are under water.

[Jesse]

WNW gust to 37mph at PDX in the last hour. Rare to see gusty winds from that direction.

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z.

[bainbridgekid]

Snohomish PUD says 150,000 residences are without power and this will be one of their worst storms in history. This after the August storm broke their record for most outages ever.

 

Hope it's not out for 3 days again like it was then.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This storm didnt have huge winds on west side but they lasted most of the day and the ground is very saturated.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Stupid phone

[TT-SEA]

0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z.

 

 

Way better.

[bainbridgekid]

Quite the hailstorm here in the last 10 minutes. Ground is white.

 

Still calm. Don't think wind ever got above 5 mph today here. However... the roads down below us are under water.

Chains required on Snoqualmie Pass because of hail right now.

 

I've never seen that before.

[TT-SEA]

Thursday is a perfect day given the existing conditions.   Sunny in all the places that have been far too wet lately... and cloudy and raining down in Oregon where they need it.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.45.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post some oz images. I can't download them on 4g for some reason.

[TT-SEA]

GFS was better... but Canadian is worse for next week.  

 

Here is the new 00Z run for next Wednesday:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

 

 

And the 12Z run for the same time:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

 

 

For comparison... the new 00Z GFS for next Wednesday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht.gif

[Front Ranger]

Can someone post some oz images. I can't download them on 4g for some reason.

 

Hour 156.

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is hour 162 on the 00z GFS... much better and better progression that favors us. It is short lived like two days but it is nice to see some potential.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still looking kinda dry and cool.

[Phil]

So raging zonal flow is delayed but not denied.

That's my guess. A big Aleutian/GOA vortex (+PNA) should take over sometime during the first week of December, and when it does, most of the country will end up blowtorching.

[Jesse]

That's my guess. A big Aleutian/GOA vortex (+PNA) should take over sometime during the first week of December, and when it does, most of the country will end up blowtorching.

 

This always seems to be your 2-3 week forecast.

 

I don't remember you predicting a coolish (in some spots) and active November for us.

[MossMan]

Snohomish PUD says 150,000 residences are without power and this will be one of their worst storms in history. This after the August storm broke their record for most outages ever.

 

Hope it's not out for 3 days again like it was then.

Yeah Snohomish co PUD is now saying this could be the most damage they have ever experienced in their history. Saw no PUD trucks anywhere while driving home from the lake house. I have a feeling we will be without power for a long time. Also they are also saying the Stilly could crest at record flood stage, this reminds me of Novembers when I was a kid.

[Phil]

This always seems to be your 2-3 week forecast.

 

I don't remember you predicting a coolish (in some spots) and active November for us.

Well, you're wrong. I do my best to convey my thoughts and be positively engaging here, so posts like this are just a tad bit irritating.

 

This was my last intraseasonal outlook, posted on October 11th. I haven't changed anything, and in fact I believe this forecast has verified.

 

I think your best shot might be November this year, but a January event is also on the table, in my opinion.

 

November looks -PNA/+WPO dominated to me, but getting polar air into the PNW requires strong NPAC wave breaking/-EPO, which is certainly not a lock.

 

December looks like a nationwide blowtorch. January looks like a transition month, February looks to feature legitimate polar blocking, but probably will only benefit the east w/ the +PNA going.

[snow_wizard]

0z GFS looking good. Big improvement over 18z.

 

Yes indeed.  Given how much better the other models have been I expect the improving trend will continue.

 

Jesse has to be pleased there is basically no warm weather being shown over the next 10 days at least.  I know I sure am.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah Snohomish co PUD is now saying this could be the most damage they have ever experienced in their history. Saw no PUD trucks anywhere while driving home from the lake house. I have a feeling we will be without power for a long time. Also they are also saying the Stilly could crest at record flood stage, this reminds me of Novembers when I was a kid.

 

It was obviously way worse up there than it was here.  December 2006 was MUCH worse here than this event.  Very interesting about the stilly.  Huge flooding on that one and the Skagit seems to be the best harbingers of a coming Arctic outbreak.  There must have been enough snowpack to exacerbate the flooding this time.