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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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When you combine low solar with a cold ENSO event, you would be hard pressed to find a winter that didn't deliver some nice events for my area.  I looked at the last 5 solar cycles and more specifically snowfall at Shawnigan Lake during winters with low solar coinciding with Cold ENSO.  I came up with the following winters and the snowfall totals that occurred......1964, then 73, 74, 75, then 84, 85, then 95, 96, then 07, 08.  Only the winter of 95-96 failed to end up notably above the average of 29" here.

 

1964     66"

1973     37"

1974     51"

1975     42"

1984     44"

1985     77"

1995     29"

1996     70"

2007     55"

2008     77"

 

Needless to say, I have high hopes for the coming years. 

 

Interestingly 1995-96 was a very decent winter down here.  We had decent snowfall in January and even good sized lakes froze thick enough to walk on in early Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yeah, there are definitely specific behaviors that favor better winters out there (specifically the -PNA type circulation with significant meridional wave amplitude).

 

Leaving solar forcing(s) out of the equation, you generally want a +QBO/-ENSO as opposed to a -QBO/-ENSO, as the former favors a more poleward-oriented Aleutian high. For example, the recent -ENSO years of 2008-09 and 2010-11 were +QBO, while the -ENSO years of 2007-08 and 2011-12 were -QBO, respectively.

 

The reason(s) for this relationship are complicated, and can be less robust on short timescales.

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Yeah, there are definitely specific behaviors that favor better winters out there (specifically the -PNA type circulation with significant meridional wave amplitude).

 

Leaving solar forcing(s) out of the equation, you generally want a +QBO/-ENSO as opposed to a -QBO/-ENSO, as the former favors a more poleward-oriented Aleutian high. For example, the recent -ENSO years of 2008-09 and 2010-11 were +QBO, while the -ENSO years of 2007-08 and 2011-12 were -QBO, respectively.

 

The reason(s) for this relationship are complicated, and can be less robust on short timescales.

 

That does nicely fit.  2007-08 and 2011-12 were less amplified than the others.  I'm sure there are exceptions as with everything else, but this looks intriguing.

 

I was also going to point out 1942-43 is another cold ENSO winter that coincided with low solar activity and we got nailed that winter.  In fact that will be an interesting analog assuming the ENSO crashes next year.  The 1940 through early 1942 Nino was very similar to this one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It would certainly be a case of lightning striking the exact same spot twice if that were to happen again.  For now that stands as a fluke.

 

I would root for the PDO have a major flip again as we head into -ENSO.

 

Dewey has made several remarks about the current +PDO state as if it somehow disproves what I was saying back in 2007/2008. My point all along was that the state of the PDO matters for the PNW, as much or even more so than ENSO. 2006-12, we saw a period that was dominated by a tendency towards high NPI/very low -PDO. That period produced significantly more Arctic outbreaks and snowier winters overall than the preceding or following period (so far).

 

We have seen an unprecedented flip from deeply -PDO conditions to strongly +PDO since 2013, and whaddya know, the PNW has been very warm since then, with varying states of ENSO. Until the atmosphere returns to a more -PDO state or at least neutral, it will continue to be a struggle to get below normal months in the PNW. 

 

Of course, you can still see months like Feb 2014 in there.

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To be fair, there were some other factors involved, in regards to those blowtorch seasons. I'm not sure we can repeat that, assuming the suspected descent into the grand solar minimum pans out.

 

If we actually lose the solar cycles, the Brewer Dobson Circulation will go nuclear. The ridiculous, semi-permanent blocking during the mid/late 1600s is a testament to this:

 

I doubt we'll see a 5 year stretch quite as pathetic as 1999-2003 again any time soon, but a fall 2016 crash to a La Nina is hardly a guarantee to make our winters dramatically colder in the next few years. So much of our winter weather prowess is dependent on aggressive mid latitude blocking opportunities and North America has actually had a pretty good run of that since 2008 or so, it doesn't seem like we've been starving for it. Only a matter of time for us to see a few zonal flow dominant years across the country. 

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I doubt we'll see a 5 year stretch quite as pathetic as 1999-2003 again any time soon, but a fall 2016 crash to a La Nina is hardly a guarantee to make our winters dramatically colder in the next few years. So much of our winter weather prowess is dependent on aggressive mid latitude blocking opportunities and North America has actually had a pretty good run of that since 2008 or so, it doesn't seem like we've been starving for it. Only a matter of time for us to see a few zonal flow dominant years across the country. 

What does zonal flow mean for us here in PNW? What types of weather patterns do we see with it?

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I doubt we'll see a 5 year stretch quite as pathetic as 1999-2003 again any time soon, but a fall 2016 crash to a La Nina is hardly a guarantee to make our winters dramatically colder in the next few years. So much of our winter weather prowess is dependent on aggressive mid latitude blocking opportunities and North America has actually had a pretty good run of that since 2008 or so, it doesn't seem like we've been starving for it. Only a matter of time for us to see a few zonal flow dominant years across the country. 

That'll be great for the mountains at least. I'm not against a season with cold zonal flow and low snow levels with lots of 33* rain... Usually are a couple of events noteworthy in cases like such. We haven't done great in them as of late... (2007-2008, 2005-2006).

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What does zonal flow mean for us here in PNW? What types of weather patterns do we see with it?

 

Zonal flow means the upper air flow over our region is going to be dominated by the westerlies i.e. a Pacific jet stream. That means predominantly mild Pacific storms and airmasses will impact us and generally deliver abundant precipitation to the region, rain in the valleys and snows in the mountains.

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I would root for the PDO have a major flip again as we head into -ENSO.

 

Dewey has made several remarks about the current +PDO state as if it somehow disproves what I was saying back in 2007/2008. My point all along was that the state of the PDO matters for the PNW, as much or even more so than ENSO. 2006-12, we saw a period that was dominated by a tendency towards high NPI/very low -PDO. That period produced significantly more Arctic outbreaks and snowier winters overall than the preceding or following period (so far).

 

We have seen an unprecedented flip from deeply -PDO conditions to strongly +PDO since 2013, and whaddya know, the PNW has been very warm since then, with varying states of ENSO. Until the atmosphere returns to a more -PDO state or at least neutral, it will continue to be a struggle to get below normal months in the PNW. 

 

Of course, you can still see months like Feb 2014 in there.

 

I'm sure the PDO will drop with the ENSO.  Even this month the very high NP has resulted in a good drop in SSTs along the West Coast.

 

I am increasingly convinced PDO is driven by the atmosphere and not vice versa.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I would root for the PDO have a major flip again as we head into -ENSO.

 

Dewey has made several remarks about the current +PDO state as if it somehow disproves what I was saying back in 2007/2008. My point all along was that the state of the PDO matters for the PNW, as much or even more so than ENSO. 2006-12, we saw a period that was dominated by a tendency towards high NPI/very low -PDO. That period produced significantly more Arctic outbreaks and snowier winters overall than the preceding or following period (so far).

 

We have seen an unprecedented flip from deeply -PDO conditions to strongly +PDO since 2013, and whaddya know, the PNW has been very warm since then, with varying states of ENSO. Until the atmosphere returns to a more -PDO state or at least neutral, it will continue to be a struggle to get below normal months in the PNW.

During the cold season, I think the PDO itself is largely irrelevant in terms of pattern driving. I'd argue that high-latitude SSTs in general are overrated when it comes to cold-season forecasting.

 

In my opinion, the PDO is essentially a low frequency reflection of low frequency circulatory tendencies over the North Pacific. These circulatory tendencies can be quantitatively linked to dynamics within the tropical domain, including:

 

1) Internal resonances and feedbacks, including ENSO, and the Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation, or TPQDO. This relatively new index (Stergios Misios) is modeled to describe an interdecadal cycle in ENSO tendency (denotating the latitudinal orientation of the WPAC convection associated w/ the western WC flank), and is possibly a resonant, subharmonic response to the dominant decadal ENSO cycle, which appears to be driven by solar forcing.

 

2) External forcings on the tropical domain, particularly on the IO/WPAC-EPAC see-saw, which significantly influences ENSO, Walker/Hadley cell dynamics, and MJO mean period frequency. These external forcings include solar forcing(s) on multiple timescales, and longer term changes in stratospheric circulation and chemistry, which alters the overall tropical-mid latitude-polar relationship. Both are open to multiple interpretations.

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41-21 IMBY today.  Getting pretty chilly for this time of year.  Fog is already extensive over the South Sound and SW WA this evening so I imagine tomorrow will see many locations struggle to get out of the 30s.  It will probably be the coldest day of this series.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Only got up to 37 today after a low of 22. Currently 31. We have gotten to the point where areas that stay shaded all day have been building their frost to the point to where it looks like it has snowed. Too bad we didn't have snow going into this like last year. Had snow on the ground for nearly 7 days with the inversion.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'm sure the PDO will drop with the ENSO.  Even this month the very high NP has resulted in a good drop in SSTs along the West Coast.

 

I am increasingly convinced PDO is driven by the atmosphere and not vice versa.

 

Yup. As ENSO is as well.

 

Of course, the atmosphere tends to stay in certain patterns for awhile.

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I would root for the PDO have a major flip again as we head into -ENSO.

 

Dewey has made several remarks about the current +PDO state as if it somehow disproves what I was saying back in 2007/2008. My point all along was that the state of the PDO matters for the PNW, as much or even more so than ENSO. 2006-12, we saw a period that was dominated by a tendency towards high NPI/very low -PDO. That period produced significantly more Arctic outbreaks and snowier winters overall than the preceding or following period (so far).

 

We have seen an unprecedented flip from deeply -PDO conditions to strongly +PDO since 2013, and whaddya know, the PNW has been very warm since then, with varying states of ENSO. Until the atmosphere returns to a more -PDO state or at least neutral, it will continue to be a struggle to get below normal months in the PNW.

 

Of course, you can still see months like Feb 2014 in there.

Good lord...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Yup. As ENSO is as well.

 

Of course, the atmosphere tends to stay in certain patterns for awhile.

 

My understanding of ENSO has gradually expanded over the years and I think another big aspect of it is an occasional El Nino is needed to relieve the excess heat that builds up in the Western Pacific.  In this case the atmosphere was fighting it so it took one or two years longer to emerge than it normally would have.  In general the atmosphere has been pretty anti El Nino over the past 10 years so.  Now that the Nino finally happened it is so extreme that I believe the extremely warm SST's do control the atmosphere to some extent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I doubt we'll see a 5 year stretch quite as pathetic as 1999-2003 again any time soon, but a fall 2016 crash to a La Nina is hardly a guarantee to make our winters dramatically colder in the next few years. So much of our winter weather prowess is dependent on aggressive mid latitude blocking opportunities and North America has actually had a pretty good run of that since 2008 or so, it doesn't seem like we've been starving for it. Only a matter of time for us to see a few zonal flow dominant years across the country.

Yeah, hard to disagree with this assessment. Considering that next winter will probably be of the -ENSO/-QBO type, a flatter, more equatorially-biased Aleutian high is favored (-PNA/+EPO).

 

That said, under the scenario of a multi-year La Niña, I'd be very bullish for something significant in 2017-18. The Niña/+QBO combo works notoriously well for you guys, and gets particularly noteworthy when solar forcing is weak or declining.

 

Also, when you refer to aggressive blocking in recent years, I assume you're referring to blocking over the North Pacific? There's actually been a notable lack of blocking over the North Atlantic through the last several years, and this has extended to the Arctic, more recently.

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Burns, Or had a high of 6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Only got up to 37 today after a low of 22. Currently 31. We have gotten to the point where areas that stay shaded all day have been building their frost to the point to where it looks like it has snowed. Too bad we didn't have snow going into this like last year. Had snow on the ground for nearly 7 days with the inversion.

I took a couple of pictures of the frost this afternoon, just down the road from my house. 

frost1.JPG

frost3.JPG

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I took a couple of pictures of the frost this afternoon, just down the road from my house. 

attachicon.giffrost1.JPG

attachicon.giffrost3.JPG

 

 

Looks like that in spots on the south side of eastbound I-90 as well.   

 

And then 10 minutes after clouds move in it all disappears.   So strange.   It can be colder with the clouds and still vanishes instantly.   50 degrees and sunshine and it stays perfectly preserved in the shade.  38 and cloudy and its gone.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, hard to disagree with this assessment. Considering that next winter will probably be of the -ENSO/-QBO type, a flatter, more equatorially-biased Aleutian high is favored (-PNA/+EPO).

 

That said, under the scenario of a multi-year La Niña, I'd be very bullish for something significant in 2017-18. The Niña/+QBO combo works notoriously well for you guys, and gets particularly noteworthy when solar forcing is weak or declining.

 

Also, when you refer to aggressive blocking in recent years, I assume you're referring to blocking over the North Pacific? There's actually been a notable lack of blocking over the North Atlantic through the last several years, and this has extended to the Arctic, more recently.

 

 

Do you mean 2016-17 where highlighted above?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My understanding of ENSO has gradually expanded over the years and I think another big aspect of it is an occasional El Nino is needed to relieve the excess heat that builds up in the Western Pacific. In this case the atmosphere was fighting it so it took one or two years longer to emerge than it normally would have. In general the atmosphere has been pretty anti El Nino over the past 10 years so. Now that the Nino finally happened it is so extreme that I believe the extremely warm SST's do control the atmosphere to some extent.

Yeah, tropical SSTs are certainly a huge driving factor in large scale convection and global circulation. There's really no way to argue otherwise.

 

As for El Niño's purpose, that's almost eternally debatable, lol.

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Do you mean 2016-17 where highlighted above?

No, next winter (2016-17) would be classified as a first-year Niña, while 2017-18 would be classified as a second-year Niña, assuming that is what actually happens.

 

The +QBO/Niña combination is preferable for North Pacific blocking and subsequent Arctic potential in your region, and next winter (2016-17) will very likely feature a -QBO. That doesn't preclude blocking, but it's less likely to be prolonged and/or anomalous, at least over the Pacific.

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Yeah, hard to disagree with this assessment. Considering that next winter will probably be of the -ENSO/-QBO type, a flatter, more equatorially-biased Aleutian high is favored (-PNA/+EPO).

 

That said, under the scenario of a multi-year La Niña, I'd be very bullish for something significant in 2017-18. The Niña/+QBO combo works notoriously well for you guys, and gets particularly noteworthy when solar forcing is weak or declining.

 

Also, when you refer to aggressive blocking in recent years, I assume you're referring to blocking over the North Pacific? There's actually been a notable lack of blocking over the North Atlantic through the last several years, and this has extended to the Arctic, more recently.

 

Correct. The East has done remarkably well since 2008 considering the lack of -NAO in the winter.

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Correct. The East has done remarkably well since 2008 considering the lack of -NAO in the winter.

Yeah, basically a perpetual reincarnation of 1993-94. It'd be hilarious if we end up reverting back to that in January.

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Already down to 25 at EUG.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A balmy 53 here today.  The east wind blowing pretty good in east county.  Tonight, here in BG it is calm, and the coldest it's been for this time of the night.  28. 

 

Hit 21 this morning.  Finally looks like lower levels cool tomorrow.

 

PDX was 47 today. VUO was 47. TTD was 43. The lower levels cooled today in parts of the metro area exposed to gorge outflow.

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Running the Seattle Half Marathon tomorrow morning at 7:30. 

 

It will be difficult enough considering I've barely trained, but having temps in the upper 20's won't be too fun.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Running the Seattle Half Marathon tomorrow morning at 7:30. 

 

It will be difficult enough considering I've barely trained, but having temps in the upper 20's won't be too fun.

 

Darn the constant cold weather of the last few years! First your November dunk tank and now this.

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We've done it twice already. Sad it stands to reason this may be the season's low water mark.

 

 

Yeah... I envision a rainy December and then spring arrives in January.   

 

Daffodils were up last year on 1/10.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Darn the constant cold weather of the last few years! First your November dunk tank and now this.

I love cold weather but it sure has had a tendency to hit at inopportune times the last couple weeks.

 

Better than 40 degree rain though.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I love cold weather but it sure has had a tendency to hit at inopportune times the last couple weeks.

 

Better than 40 degree rain though.

Some 55-degree rain might actually feel nice later this week. Maybe some humidity and a south wind.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Considering you will be running I can't imagine it being too bad.

 

Camping last night was chilly.

Running in cold weather is especially taxing on the body, made even more complicated by the fact stress triggers aren't nearly as obvious as when running in hot weather.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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