November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I just read a news story on komo that a man died after falling through the ice while attempting to skate on a pond near Yelm.  It's a sad story, but I cant imagine ice being thick enough anywhere west of the cascades to even think about going out on it. 

 

Yeah, not to be cruel but that is Darwin Awards territory with afternoon temps in the 40s most places...

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX dropped to 29 between hourly readings.

 

With the easterlies having switched to a chilly gap wind, they could have a shot at a sub-45 high today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last night was a touch colder again in the Willamette Valley. Salem made it all the way down to 20, Eugene hit 17. 

[Jesse]

Hard to tell how things will shake out at the surface the first week of December (probably pretty mild overall) but at least it doesn't look like a complete torch at 850mb.

[TT-SEA]

You gotta start somewhere I guess.

 

 

I suppose.   But that is big stretch!    

 

Just going to have to let it play out and see if we get another chance at the end of the month.    Pointless to try and pinpoint anything now so far into the future until the PV starts to break up.

[snow_wizard]

I just read a news story on komo that a man died after falling through the ice while attempting to skate on a pond near Yelm.  It's a sad story, but I cant imagine ice being thick enough anywhere west of the cascades to even think about going out on it. 

 

For sure.  I would have given it a couple more days at least.

 

The problem with this kind of thing is even when the ice is unquestionably safe public officials won't let people go out on it because they get the mistaken notion the ice is never thick enough to be safe here.  There were some winters in the past where people drove a car onto Green Lake in Seattle to prove it was safe to skate on.

[Deweydog]

I just read a news story on komo that a man died after falling through the ice while attempting to skate on a pond near Yelm. It's a sad story, but I cant imagine ice being thick enough anywhere west of the cascades to even think about going out on it.

Sad that Jim is gone but if he had to go it seems like an appropriate way. RIP. Gone but not forgotten.

[GHweatherChris]

Tim is on a roll this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is on a roll this morning.

 

 

The model discussion is on topic.

[Jesse]

Tim is on a roll this morning.

 

Message iFred. The only grassroots movement we need around here is to get him on permanent mod preview.

[crf450ish]

Guys I went out onto a small pond just off my property line and drilled a hole in the center and measure the ice. 8 3/8" thick to be exact. I took a 1" spade drill bit and drilled through the ice. Rode my honda rancher 4x4 quad across it multiple times. No cracks. Its about 6' deep in the middle, according to my crude measuring device I used in July!

[ShawniganLake]

For sure.  I would have given it a couple more days at least.

 

The problem with this kind of thing is even when the ice is unquestionably safe public officials won't let people go out on it because they get the mistaken notion the ice is never thick enough to be safe here.  There were some winters in the past where people drove a car onto Green Lake in Seattle to prove it was safe to skate on.

I get what you are saying.  But, I am not sure if ice is very often "unquestionably safe" around here.  But I think a sign saying "skate at own risk" is sufficient.  I sort of get tired of rule makers looking to protect people from their own stupidity. 

 

On a side note, the last time I remember seeing people skate on the main body of Shawnigan Lake was January 1993.  The Lake came closest to completely freezing over in Dec 1990.  There have been times when some of the Bays and shallows may have been safe since then. 

[TT-SEA]

I get what you are saying.  But, I am not sure if ice is very often "unquestionably safe" around here.  But I think a sign saying "skate at own risk" is sufficient.  I sort of get tired of rule makers looking to protect people from their own stupidity. 

 

On a side note, the last time I remember seeing people skate on the main body of Shawnigan Lake was January 1993.  The Lake came closest to completely freezing over in Dec 1990.  There have been times when some of the Bays and shallows may have been safe since then. 

 

 

Even in the Minnesota there is usually a 'proceed at your own risk' mentality.   You are venturing out onto a frozen lake... its inherently dangerous.     You think the lawmakers are going to go out of their way to declare its safe??    Never going to happen and never should.  

[TT-SEA]

No big changes in the 12Z ECMWF.   Split flow regime... wet weather at times and a few periods of cooler 850mb temps but it looks generally mild overall.     Pretty disappointing for the mountains and the ski resorts.

[BLI snowman]

I get what you are saying.  But, I am not sure if ice is very often "unquestionably safe" around here.  But I think a sign saying "skate at own risk" is sufficient.  I sort of get tired of rule makers looking to protect people from their own stupidity. 

 

On a side note, the last time I remember seeing people skate on the main body of Shawnigan Lake was January 1993.  The Lake came closest to completely freezing over in Dec 1990.  There have been times when some of the Bays and shallows may have been safe since then. 

 

I would think you'd need a stretch of 5+ afternoons below freezing for ice that approaches safe levels on a bigger pond or lake. Basically only in the rare, major cold spells that we see with extremely scarce regularity nowadays. Anyone trying to ice skate in this run of the mill airmass must really not like paying attention. 

[TT-SEA]

Low inversion in full effect today... some live cams:

 

Seattle:

http://s23.postimg.org/ssd9wgkjf/SHRST_175x131.jpg

 

 

 

Eatonville:

http://s21.postimg.org/fdbflbgp3/ETNVL_175x131.jpg

[MossMan]

Low inversion in full effect today... some live cams:

 

Seattle:

http://s23.postimg.org/ssd9wgkjf/SHRST_175x131.jpg

 

 

 

Eatonville:

http://s21.postimg.org/fdbflbgp3/ETNVL_175x131.jpg

Yuck in Seattle, another bright and lovely day up here!

[Phil]

5 members of the 12z GFS ensemble drop into cold enough to snow territory late in the run.

 

I have some faith something good could happen later in December as some of the MJO models are forecasting an MJO wave emerging in region 4 or 5 a bit later on. That is usually the best region for us to score.

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing this MJO wave? All I see is canonical forcing.

[TT-SEA]

Yuck in Seattle, another bright and lovely day up here!

 

Nice out here as well...

 

http://s27.postimg.org/e9gdning3/Untitled2.jpg

[crf450ish]

I get what you are saying.  But, I am not sure if ice is very often "unquestionably safe" around here.  But I think a sign saying "skate at own risk" is sufficient.  I sort of get tired of rule makers looking to protect people from their own stupidity. 

 

On a side note, the last time I remember seeing people skate on the main body of Shawnigan Lake was January 1993.  The Lake came closest to completely freezing over in Dec 1990.  There have been times when some of the Bays and shallows may have been safe since then. 

I got a rare chance to pick my great grandmothers brain a couple years ago just before she went home. I asked her all kinds of good questions. One of them was about the weather. She grew up in the puget sound. Family of loggers until my grandpa got into the railroad in the late 60's. Anyways, the coolest thing she told me was when she walked on alder lake when she was a little girl. I don't know what year it was, but I have never heard of that lake or Riffe Lake ever freezing enough to walk on. Has anyone?

[snow_wizard]

I would think you'd need a stretch of 5+ afternoons below freezing for ice that approaches safe levels on a bigger pond or lake. Basically only in the rare, major cold spells that we see with extremely scarce regularity nowadays. Anyone trying to ice skate in this run of the mill airmass must really not like paying attention. 

 

I think enough cold nights could do the trick.  Keep in mind that even when the afternoons are in the low 40s 18+ hours of the day are below freezing this time of year.

[Jesse]

I got a rare chance to pick my great grandmothers brain a couple years ago just before she went home. I asked her all kinds of good questions. One of them was about the weather. She grew up in the puget sound. Family of loggers until my grandpa got into the railroad in the late 60's. Anyways, the coolest thing she told me was when she walked on alder lake when she was a little girl. I don't know what year it was, but I have never heard of that lake or Riffe Lake ever freezing enough to walk on. Has anyone?

I think there was a January or February somewhere in the early 50s that was pretty cold.

[snow_wizard]

Guys I went out onto a small pond just off my property line and drilled a hole in the center and measure the ice. 8 3/8" thick to be exact. I took a 1" spade drill bit and drilled through the ice. Rode my honda rancher 4x4 quad across it multiple times. No cracks. Its about 6' deep in the middle, according to my crude measuring device I used in July!

 

That is definitely safe about 2 times over.  Pretty impressive thickness for so early.

[snow_wizard]

I think there was a January or February somewhere in the early 50s that was pretty cold.

 

The best winters for lake ice since 1890 from what I've been able to put together are.

 

1892-93

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1924-25

1928-29

1929-30

1936-37

1942-43 (maybe)

1948-49

1949-50

1956-57

 

Since 1957 I would imagine Dec 1972, Dec 1983, Nov/ Dec 1985, Feb 1989, and Dec 1990 probably did pretty well also.  Jan 1969 probably had too much snow to allow good ice to form.

 

More recently I did see good ice on decent sized lakes in Feb 1996

[ShawniganLake]

I got a rare chance to pick my great grandmothers brain a couple years ago just before she went home. I asked her all kinds of good questions. One of them was about the weather. She grew up in the puget sound. Family of loggers until my grandpa got into the railroad in the late 60's. Anyways, the coolest thing she told me was when she walked on alder lake when she was a little girl. I don't know what year it was, but I have never heard of that lake or Riffe Lake ever freezing enough to walk on. Has anyone?

Seems like Jan 1950 and the winter of 68-69 are the ones that stand out in peoples minds, at least from my experience when talking to the older generations.  I know locally in 1969, the ocean saw significant icing in Maple bay, Cowichan bay, and Mill Bay.  I know of stories of people walking on the ocean and boats stuck in the ice at the Mill bay Marina. 

[snow_wizard]

Seems like Jan 1950 and the winter of 68-69 are the ones that stand out in peoples minds, at least from my experience when talking to the older generations.  I know locally in 1969, the ocean saw significant icing in Maple bay, Cowichan bay, and Mill Bay.  I know of stories of people walking on the ocean and boats stuck in the ice at the Mill bay Marina. 

 

Jan 1969 was quite a bit colder up that way than it was in Seattle.  That's not to take away from what was a great month here though.

 

For long sustained cold and clear skies (which are best for freezing the lakes) Dec 1924, Jan / Feb 1929, and Jan 1930 are probably the standouts.

 

For just plain brutal cold which also works just fine Jan 1950 is the unquestioned king other than Jan 1862.

[BLI snowman]

The best winters for lake ice since 1890 from what I've been able to put together are.

 

1892-93

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1924-25

1928-29

1929-30

1936-37

1942-43 (maybe)

1948-49

1949-50

1956-57

 

Since 1957 I would imagine Dec 1972, Dec 1983, Nov/ Dec 1985, Feb 1989, and Dec 1990 probably did pretty well also.  Jan 1969 probably had too much snow to allow good ice to form.

 

More recently I did see good ice on decent sized lakes in Feb 1996

 

The Columbia iced over substantially at Portland-Vancouver in 1978-79.

[Phil]

Pointless to try and pinpoint anything now so far into the future until the PV starts to break up.

Yep, and we're over a month away from that happening.

 

This beast is vertically stacked all the way into the f**king mesosphere, and it's only progged to get stronger and more symmetrical.

[TT-SEA]

The best winters for lake ice since 1890 from what I've been able to put together are.

 

1892-93

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1924-25

1928-29

1929-30

1936-37

1942-43 (maybe)

1948-49

1949-50

1956-57

 

Since 1957 I would imagine Dec 1972, Dec 1983, Nov/ Dec 1985, Feb 1989, and Dec 1990 probably did pretty well also. Jan 1969 probably had too much snow to allow good ice to form.

 

More recently I did see good ice on decent sized lakes in Feb 1996

So 60 years since it was truly safe. Authorities should definitely be concerned about their policy of always saying it's not totally safe!

[James Jones]

Jan 1969 was quite a bit colder up that way than it was in Seattle.  That's not to take away from what was a great month here though.

 

For long sustained cold and clear skies (which are best for freezing the lakes) Dec 1924, Jan / Feb 1929, and Jan 1930 are probably the standouts.

 

For just plain brutal cold which also works just fine Jan 1950 is the unquestioned king other than Jan 1862.

Is there any hard data for winter 1861-62? I've looked before but didn't find anything.

[ShawniganLake]

Jan 1969 was quite a bit colder up that way than it was in Seattle.  That's not to take away from what was a great month here though.

 

For long sustained cold and clear skies (which are best for freezing the lakes) Dec 1924, Jan / Feb 1929, and Jan 1930 are probably the standouts.

 

For just plain brutal cold which also works just fine Jan 1950 is the unquestioned king other than Jan 1862.

I am sure this is the case.  January 69 saw 13 consecutive days that failed to crack 30F.  But the coldest day of that winter here was actually Dec 29th, with a daily mean temp of a staggering 7.5F.  Ahhh, the good old days. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows close to 60 at SEA on Thursday... and into the 60s from PDX southward.

 

Interestingly... the ECMWF is basically dry every afternoon for the next week just like the 00Z run.    There are some showers around but they are focused on the coast and make their pass inland during a few nights this coming week.    

 

The GFS is very wet for Wednesday afternoon but the new 12Z ECMWF backed off even more and is totally dry that day.   Then Thursday we get a taste of spring as the front is stalled well offshore.

[Front Ranger]

OLM managed a high of just 35 today.

 

10 straight days there (today will make 11) with -4 or greater departures. That station is just so sexy.

[snow_wizard]

The Columbia iced over substantially at Portland-Vancouver in 1978-79.

 

Yeah...there are many instances of deep cold in the 19th century.  I focused pretty much on 1892 to present.

[Front Ranger]

Burns, Or had a high of 6

 

This station is quite sexy as well.

[snow_wizard]

I am sure this is the case.  January 69 saw 13 consecutive days that failed to crack 30F.  But the coldest day of that winter here was actually Dec 29th, with a daily mean temp of a staggering 7.5F.  Ahhh, the good old days. 

 

No doubt.  Seattle got in on the December cold as well.  They had 18-6 one day and 17-8 the next.  Wicked cold air mass, in fact possibly the coldest of the 20th century.  That is when Mazama dropped to -48.

[snow_wizard]

Is there any hard data for winter 1861-62? I've looked before but didn't find anything.

 

I've got plenty.  I'll have to do a topic on that winter again.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF shows close to 60 at SEA on Thursday... and into the 60s from PDX southward.

 

Interestingly... the ECMWF is basically dry every afternoon for the next week just like the 00Z run.    There are some showers around but they are focused on the coast and make their pass inland during a few nights this coming week.    

 

The GFS is very wet for Wednesday afternoon but the new 12Z ECMWF backed off even more and is totally dry that day.   Then Thursday we get a taste of spring as the front is stalled well offshore.

 

I'll be quite surprised if everything you stated here verifies.

[TT-SEA]

I'll be quite surprised if everything you stated here verifies.

 

 

Why??

 

Betting against the ECMWF for the next week?  Not a good idea.  

 

You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run.    You spend too much time focused on the GFS.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[Front Ranger]

I would think you'd need a stretch of 5+ afternoons below freezing for ice that approaches safe levels on a bigger pond or lake. Basically only in the rare, major cold spells that we see with extremely scarce regularity nowadays. Anyone trying to ice skate in this run of the mill airmass must really not like paying attention. 

 

Actually, if you are getting lows in the teens to lower 20s, and you're only going above freezing for a few hours every day, even if you're getting up to 35-40 you'll get some pretty thick ice. I've seen it here many times.

 

People fall through the ice and die in all sorts of temps and bodies of water, unfortunately.