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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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I would think frost stuck around there all the time when the eastern part of the state gets under a solid inversion like now.

Well the cloud cover all day today also helped temps not rise more then 2 degrees. They didnt rise above 2 degrees between 6am and 4pm at least.... I am still shocked as this is my first winter here. 

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Well the cloud cover all day today also helped temps not rise more then 2 degrees. They didnt rise above 2 degrees between 6am and 4pm at least.... I am still shocked as this is my first winter here. 

 

 

Ahhh... I see.   I think that is really normal over there in an inversion situation.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tomorrow s high temps will be interesting to watch.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Heavy freezing fog is one of the cool things that happens over there.  Sometimes the trees got flocked with a half inch of that stuff and it's quite pretty.  I suppose they could get ice fog over there on occasional also.  That is when the moisture is frozen in the air as opposed to freezing when it contacts a surface.

Why doesn't gravity take over and the frozen moisture fall to the ground? I'm afraid I don't fully understand. 

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Olympia was warmer today. 41 after 35 yesterday.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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As for the comment this year hasn't set it itself aside from last year...I really don't how last November and this one could be much different when looking at the big picture.

 

 

post-222-0-71408300-1448844276_thumb.gif

post-222-0-62467700-1448844291_thumb.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Why doesn't gravity take over and the frozen moisture fall to the ground? I'm afraid I don't fully understand. 

 

It does fall slowly as a very fine snow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Are you familiar with low, strong, fog inversions? 

 

I'm just saying.  32 for SEA at 4pm is impressive for this time of year regardless of the cause.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006.

 

Pretty much the same pattern.

 

It certainly looks very similar there, from a large-scale perspective. May not turn out so similar in the details, though.

 

Which of course is usually the case. :)

 

The pattern may indeed turn to the traditional firehose zonal pattern later in the month, but for now there look to be some signs of split flow in there, moreso than most really zonal months.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006.

 

Pretty much the same pattern.

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

 

I like it!

 

I'm not sure why everyone is so down on this analog.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house.  :wub:

 

EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my post 

 

As odd as it may seem the coldest temps with an inversion are very near the top of it.  I've seen many examples of that around here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image.jpeg

 

Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house. :wub:

 

EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my post

Gorgeous!!

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:huh:

 

I'm not sure everyone is? I'm guessing you're just going off the people saying the current cold snap might be the coldest temps of the winter.

 

I was just commenting on how Tim is fighting it and your comment saying it's not likely to pan out.  Then there's Jesse's inexplicable pessimism right now.  In actuality the weather this month was quite 2006 like with all of the flooding and windstorms earlier.  The Puget Sound area escaped any big windstorms, but it still got windy and Spokane got blasted.  Fine details will always be different of course.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Dense freezing fog and 30 at SEA at 5pm.  That's colder than it is here.  It takes perfect conditions for that to happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I like it!

 

I'm not sure why everyone is so down on this analog.

Not down. Might be a good match. But this month has been a very muted version of November 2006. Even if the pattern is the same. Maybe 2006 had something to make it more extreme.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was just commenting on how Tim is fighting it and your comment saying it's not likely to pan out.  Then there's Jesse's inexplicable pessimism right now.  In actuality the weather this month was quite 2006 like with all of the flooding and windstorms earlier.  The Puget Sound area escaped any big windstorms, but it still got windy and Spokane got blasted.  Fine details will always be different of course.

 

Nah, I think 2006-07 is as good an analog as there is. I was just saying the upcoming pattern doesn't look traditionally zonal to me, as that almost always features a firehose into the west coast. Plus there's the cutoff feature in the inland west, which is more of an element of split flow and very much a Nino feature.

 

But the models aren't in total agreement as to how the upcoming pattern will develop over the lower 48...I'm just going by the latest Euro trends.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Holy crap.  SEA is now down to 28 with dense freezing fog.  A 4 degree drop in an hour and half with soup is pretty impressive.  No question these conditions are going to cause major problems at the airport.

 

That gives them a 35-28 day which is a -11 departure (minus 10 with the voodoo math the NWS uses).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Holy crap. SEA is now down to 28 with dense freezing fog. A 4 degree drop in an hour and half with soup is pretty impressive. No question these conditions are going to cause major problems at the airport.

 

That gives them a 35-28 day which is a -11 departure (minus 10 with the voodoo math the NWS uses).

Mathematical law was written specifically to aggravate weather weenies.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Departures in W. Oregon today:

 

EUG -12

SLE  -10

PDX - 8

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nah, I think 2006-07 is as good an analog as there is. I was just saying the upcoming pattern doesn't look traditionally zonal to me, as that almost always features a firehose into the west coast. Plus there's the cutoff feature in the inland west, which is more of an element of split flow and very much a Nino feature.

 

But the models aren't in total agreement as to how the upcoming pattern will develop over the lower 48...I'm just going by the latest Euro trends.

I'm guessing we have different takes on what "zonal flow" constitutes.

 

I'm speaking strictly in terms of wave amplitude across the Western Hemisphere. Obviously no two years will have the exact same synoptic configurations, but that's fairly obvious and largely irrelevant.

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The inversion was apparent this evening from the overlook at Silver Falls.

 

12314281_582453817084_665212118564735931

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Mathematical law was written specifically to aggravate weather weenies.

 

For some reason the NWS rounds up with current daily averages and rounds down for normal which always skews the departures 1 degree high unless the high and low are both even or both odd numbers.  It's also not a factor if the normals are either both even or both odd.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Upper North Falls. I did not venture past this point as the trail was a solid sheet of ice. 

 

 

12308073_582453857004_808738246688480130

The North Falls parking area

 

12307367_582453876964_268891142639912857

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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For some reason the NWS rounds up with current daily averages and rounds down for normal which always skews the departures 1 degree high unless the high and low are both even or both odd numbers. It's also not a factor if the normals are either both even or both odd.

Jim, it's math. Do you honestly think they do it to mess with you?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Amazingly this will go down as the first month SEA is going to have a monthly average below 45 degrees since Feb 2014.  That stat is so ludicrous I can't believe it really went that long.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jim, it's math. Do you honestly think they do it to mess with you?

 

They need to apply the same rules to both sets of numbers.  That's all I'm saying.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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