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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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The 00z model suite will be telling...No doubt. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And yet, this November will end up way colder just about everywhere than last November. Go figure!

Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow.
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Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow.

 

That's something everyone seems to be forgetting a whole year later.

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I'm guessing we have different takes on what "zonal flow" constitutes.

 

I'm speaking strictly in terms of wave amplitude across the Western Hemisphere. Obviously no two years will have the exact same synoptic configurations, but that's fairly obvious and largely irrelevant.

 

The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow.

 

You're the exception rather than the rule in this case.

 

Plus, I was excluding Canada. Per usual. ;)

A forum for the end of the world.

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The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet.

 

We had an extremely strong jet not that long ago, and I'm betting we will see it happen again fairly soon.  We'll see I guess.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Amazingly this will go down as the first month SEA is going to have a monthly average below 45 degrees since Feb 2014.  That stat is so ludicrous I can't believe it really went that long.

 

To be fair, you're talking about 2 months that routinely average below 45 degrees: December and January. So you're talking about one winter, and two months that usually do it.

A forum for the end of the world.

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That's something everyone seems to be forgetting a whole year later.

 

I'm not forgetting it all.  The fact is this a way colder month overall for most places.  The mean setup for the entire month was much different than year and much less Nino like I might add.  No doubt the late month cold snap last year was nice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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To be fair, you're talking about 2 months that routinely average below 45 degrees: December and January. So you're talking about one winter, and two months that usually do it.

 

Actually the Feb normal is well below 45 also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm not forgetting it all.  The fact is this a way colder month overall for most places.  The mean setup for the entire month was much different than year and much less Nino like I might add.  No doubt the late month cold snap last year was nice.

 

 

Yeah... the cold snap at the end of November last year was just a little bit nicer here than the event this year.  :)

 

1402836_730726876995523_8933575747153056

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No one has ever been able to give a good reason for it, though. At least that I've seen.

 

Saying "it's math" does not explain it.

I'll have to jump in and agree here. It doesn't make sense that they round up with one and round down with the other.

 

Not at all suggesting some sort of conspiracy, because that would be silly, but some sort of explanation beyond the predictable condescension of an aging Hockinsonian softball coach would be nice.

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Yeah... the cold snap at the end of November last year was just a little bit nicer here than the event this year.   :)

 

1402836_730726876995523_8933575747153056

 

In your back yard. Way better here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Game is back on!    Tune in to NBC to see snow falling and 24 degrees during a football game.

 

Reminds me of a Monday night back in 2006!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This November will only end up marginally cooler than last at PDX as well.

 

Last November was barely below average at PDX (-0.3). With another -8 departure tomorrow PDX will end up -1.3 this month. A full 1 F colder than last year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Didn't look foggy at all at the CLINK for the Hawks game today. What a win, and what horrible defense by Seattle.

 

I'm skeptical of the overall pattern coming up, because although it is zonal, it has split-flow features to it. December 2006 had a much more consolidated jet. Things must be interesting though because I keep checking back each model run.... Which means I HAVE HOPE!

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South of PDX was actually above average last November. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

The degree heard 'round the world.

 

In our climate that is a significant difference IMO. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ah, you're right. So it went 3 months that would normally be below 45.

 

Another thing is that it's never happened before.  A truly extraordinary anomaly.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm pretty hopeful that somewhere in the mid Dec to mid Jan time frame will deliver.  Way too early for the gloom on here.  Especially with consistently promising GFS runs and ensemble runs.  I'll bet a nice crisp $100.00 here and now this December will be colder than last year.  It would be pretty hard for me to lose.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Not sure I would call the gfs runs promising, but they could be worse.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm pretty hopeful that somewhere in the mid Dec to mid Jan time frame will deliver. Way too early for the gloom on here. Especially with consistently promising GFS runs and ensemble runs. I'll bet a nice crisp $100.00 here and now this December will be colder than last year. It would be pretty hard for me to lose.

 

How about $100 that December does not end up below normal? :)

 

And don't pick on people for being down... you are famous for being way too far up early on in the season and then WAY too far down later. Maybe you can stick around and still talk to us when things don't work out this year? :wub:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sure about that? It will be easily cooler than last most places. South of the Canadian border, at least.

To be fair, YYJ, YVR, YXX are all running cooler this November.  But I know you prefer those nice, long standing rural stations, which Shawnigan Lake is.  Or maybe you just prefer the ones that are running cold at the time      ;)

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The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet.

Jet extension is just maxing a bit farther west this go around. That doesn't make the pattern any less zonal, in terms of streamflow. :)

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GFS agrees with 12Z ECMWF for Thursday... looks like good mixing with an 850mb temp around +7C.     Could see a few 60-degree readings somewhere between Eugene and Bellingham.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_p03.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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