November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the radar that band of precip is just falling to pieces.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes.

[Jesse]

PDX and other parts of the metro definitely have a shot at highs in the upper 30s today, IMO.

[luminen]

It hasn't been above 47F here since the 17th. 

[DareDuck]

I saw Redmond hit -5 I believe. They must have had a little more clearing.

The temp difference just outside of Bend and in town have been fairly large the last couple nights. I've been driving just outside of town in the morning and it will be -3 there and then 5 miles back in town it's 8-9 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I think since I'll be leaving town for 2 weeks on the 15th that the goodies on the ensembles are a lock.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes.

Yeah I had the same feeling and posted on it earlier also. Looking like some glimmers of hope.

[Jesse]

Sleeting in Vancouver now.

[Kayla]

What storm is that you have for your avatar? If I'm not mistaken, at first glance, I'd venture to say its the hanukkah eve storm of 2006! Man, that was truly an epic storm. 

 

Actually that one is from the August 29th storm of this year. Impressive early season storm!

[Front Ranger]

This inversion setup was initiated by a healthy continental influence, which definitely played a role in how cold things got, in my opinion. Similar to Dec 2005 and Jan 2013 in that respect, though both of those started out colder in the upper levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Current temps

 

PDX - 36

SLE - 32

EUG - 31

[Deweydog]

This inversion setup was initiated by a healthy continental influence, which definitely played a role in how cold things got, in my opinion. Similar to Dec 2005 and Jan 2013 in that respect, though both of those started out colder in the upper levels.

Fringe stuff, man.

[BLI snowman]

Sleeting in Vancouver now.

 

5 minutes of barely noticeable sleet is the first frozen precip here in over a year.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes of barely noticeable sleet is the first frozen precip here in over a year.

Pretty noticeable here.

[Jesse]

Fringe stuff, man.

I'm going to start posting this in reply every time you post something.

 

My guess is it will make me feel really smart and superior!

[Deweydog]

I'm going to start posting this in reply every time you post something.

 

My guess is it will make me feel really smart and superior!

Do what you gotta do. Maybe someone could inundate you with private messages desperately seeking forecast guidance in this time of protracted warm anomalies. That might give you a misguided sense of superiority if you're particularly impressionable. Let me know if I can help, otherwise just keep checking those models!

[BLI snowman]

Pretty noticeable here.

 

 

Utter bedlam out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With calm or light offshore winds I doubt many valley locations get much warmer today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 

 

GFS:

 

 

 

ECMWF:

 

[Jesse]

Do what you gotta do. Maybe someone could inundate you with private messages desperately seeking forecast guidance in this time of protracted warm anomalies. That might give you a misguided sense of superiority if you're particularly impressionable. Let me know if I can help, otherwise just keep checking those models!

Sorry if I fed into your already inflated ego.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold weather can cause problems I will admit. My power went out yesterday afternoon/evening for quite some time. During that time my pipes frozes. One of them burst. Home from work today trying to pump the lake out of the crawlspace so the plumber can get in there...

[catnip]

At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 

 

GFS:

GFS-240.png

 

 

ECMWF:

ECMWF-240.png

 

SE Ridge as well.

[Deweydog]

Sorry if I fed into your already inflated ego.

Being opionated and egocentric are two different things. Given the fact you're about as polarized (fun pun!) as they come in our community, you'd think you'd know that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

SE Ridge as well.

Yep... another thing worth watching. This could go to crap quickly but the setup has some promise for us.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX just dropped a degree on the hour. Perhaps they have already reached their high.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Forecast highs of 43 at SLE and EUG may be a tad optimistic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Already to 44 here. So just down right toasty... Now where are my shorts.

[Bryant]

At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 

 

 

If you're one to believe that East Asia patterns are reflected in the US later down the road via the wave train, then it's worth mentioning that there's support for the colder anomalies in the west around day 9/10. 7-10 days out from now East Asia advertises a quick moving trough starting in the west which swings through the US, gaining amplitude as it progresses. This equates to a trough over the Central/Eastern US around the 13th of December +/- a few days. 

[Perturbed Member]

The low level cold is pretty impressive here. 33F with a dp of 24F here on the west end of PDX metro (Hillsboro). Hit 19F with dp 17F last night. 

[Deweydog]

Cold weather can cause problems I will admit. My power went out yesterday afternoon/evening for quite some time. During that time my pipes frozes. One of them burst. Home from work today trying to pump the lake out of the crawlspace so the plumber can get in there...

Got to leave a drip in your neck of the woods.

[Farmboy]

Forecast for Sumas, WA on Dec. 14, per weather channel:

 

 

 

[Farmboy]

I probably just jinxed it...

[luvssnow_spokane]

I probably just jinxed it...

Yes you did!! Thanks a lot!!! Get the tar and feathers boys!!!

[TT-SEA]

Forecast for Sumas, WA on Dec. 14, per weather channel:

 

dec14.JPG

 

 

I totally disagree with this forecast.  

 

The chance of precip should be more like 70%  and the wind speed will be closer to 6 or 7 mph.    I think they could also pinpoint the snow total at this stage... it will be 2.74 inches to be exact.   It is only 15 days out.   Come on!

[Deweydog]

No power for the pump in the well. He needs a generator and pipe insulation.

Well don't I feel like a dingus. Never had to deal with it out here. We've only lost power here once in five years last December. If I recall it wasn't very cold, but the generator fired right up!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Burns Municipal Airport data only goes back to 1980, but their consecutive lows of -15 tied the all-time November low set in 2006.

 

Looks like November 1993 was similar for monthly mean and November 1985 blows this one out of the water from a monthly mean standpoint. Going back to 1980 though this is easily their most impressive continuous stretch of cold in November.

[Front Ranger]

Fringe stuff, man.

Good lord...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Well don't I feel like a dingus. Never had to deal with it out here. We've only lost power here once in five years last December. If I recall it wasn't very cold, but the generator fired right up!

Chris is correct. I do need a generator. Could probably get one for the price of a plumber!

 

The power probably goes out 2-3 times a fall/winter. Definitely enough to make a generator worth it. Especially since it can take a while to get it restored. My longest outages were January 2012 with the snowstorm and September 2013 with those early wind storms we had that year.

[Front Ranger]

The Burns Municipal Airport data only goes back to 1980, but their consecutive lows of -15 tied the all-time November low set in 2006. Looks like November 1993 was similar for monthly mean and November 1985 blows this one out of the water from a monthly mean standpoint. Going back to 1980 though this is easily their most impressive continuous stretch of cold in November.

But it's fake cold, so it doesn't really count. Fake ice fog, fake snow, fake freezing pipes, fake anomalies, etc.