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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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Some hints of high latitude blocking on the Euro ensembles.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/o7e4y0tkn/ecmwf_ens_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png

Phil says no Arctic air for anyone until mid January, maybe. The stacked PV will be a real ****** to dislodge...we'll see. The PNW has been known to score on occasion while most the country torches, so even if he's right, there may be hope.

A forum for the end of the world.

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To correct my previous post. Burns actually had 3 consecutive lows of -15 with this cold snap (And -14 this morning). Also Burns had never had a November maximum below 13 (1985). They had 3 consecutive highs in the single digits this month including a high of 6 on Saturday.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I totally disagree with this forecast.  

 

The chance of precip should be more like 70%  and the wind speed will be closer to 6 or 7 mph.    I think they could also pinpoint the snow total at this stage... it will be 2.74 inches to be exact.   It is only 15 days out.   Come on!

Wow!!.. 

 

 

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Phil says no Arctic air for anyone until mid January, maybe. The stacked PV will be a real ****** to dislodge...we'll see. The PNW has been known to score on occasion while most the country torches, so even if he's right, there may be hope.

Agree... I pointed this out earlier too. :)

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Looking into the historical record at Eugene. The streak of 4 consecutive sub-20 lows ties for the 2nd longest November streak with 1978. The most consecutive sub-20 lows at EUG was 7 in November 1952. We all know how awesome that winter turned out ;).

 

Fortunately, that winter followed a series of fantastic winters, so we can safely rule out that analog.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Fortunately, that winter followed a series of fantastic winters, so we can safely rule out that analog.

Yes, and the pattern that fall was worlds apart from this year.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I read the new EURO weeklies put an end to any thoughts of a December 2014 repeat, seems to be some support for below normal temps in the Dec. 10-15th range and then probably a cool inversion the week around Christmas.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Chris is correct. I do need a generator. Could probably get one for the price of a plumber! :)

 

The power probably goes out 2-3 times a fall/winter. Definitely enough to make a generator worth it. Especially since it can take a while to get it restored. My longest outages were January 2012 with the snowstorm and September 2013 with those early wind storms we had that year.

I think we've just been lucky so far out here. Started to feel like an idiot for the generator investment until last December.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I read the new EURO weeklies put an end to any thoughts of a December 2014 repeat, seems to be some support for below normal temps in the Dec. 10-15th range and then probably a cool inversion the week around Christmas.

Maybe some of those CFS runs you were touting a few months ago were onto something. :wub:

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We came very close to dropping $7,000 on a whole house generator back in December of 2006 after being in the dark and cold for 10 days.

 

But then we got lazy and put it off and that was a good thing.   They rebuilt the entire power system (and transmission lines) out here after that storm and also connected our area underground to the main terminal in North Bend right by Safeway.    Before that, our power was routed up through a neighborhood with overhead power lines and huge trees.   We moved into this house in August 2005 and the power would go out for long periods of time before December of 2006.   I remember we were down for 3 or 4 days in December 2005 and another 3 days during the snow of November 2006.

 

After December 2006... the only time our power has gone out for more than 2 minutes was during the ice storm in January 2012 and that was because of damage to the transmission lines.    Otherwise it never goes out regardless of how strong the wind blows or how much snow we get.   We never lost power in December 2008 and we had almost 4 feet of snow on the ground.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Precipitation approached and then just completely fell apart as it moved into this area... likely due to the outflow from Snoqualmie Pass.

 

A brisk east wind here... 37 with a dewpoint of 16.   

 

Lip chapping dry!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We came very close to dropping $7,000 on a whole house generator back in December of 2006 after being in the dark and cold for 10 days.

 

But then we got lazy and put it off and that was a good thing.   They rebuilt the entire power system (and transmission lines) out here after that storm and also connected our area underground to the main terminal in North Bend right by Safeway.    Before that, our power was routed up through a neighborhood with overhead power lines and huge trees.   We moved into this house in August 2005 and the power would go out for long periods of time before December of 2006.   I remember we were down for 3 or 4 days in December 2005 and another 3 days during the snow of November 2006.

 

After December 2006... the only time our power has gone out for more than 2 minutes was during the ice storm in January 2012 and that was because of damage to the transmission lines.    Otherwise it never goes out regardless of how strong the wind blows or how much snow we get.   We never lost power in December 2008 and we had almost 4 feet of snow on the ground.

They should totally put the lines underground out here. It is just a remote area that time sort of forgot. Because of the spotty cell coverage many people including myself have landlines still. Those lines are also above ground. During the January 2012 snow event I was without phone service for about 3 days.

 

The best I can do for internet up here is satellite, which is an overpriced drag.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Precipitation approached and then just completely fell apart as it moved into this area... likely due to the outflow from Snoqualmie Pass.

 

A brisk east wind here... 37 with a dewpoint of 16.   

 

Lip chapping dry!   

Sounds nice. It is a disgusting drippy and damp 34 degrees here.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

 

They should totally put the lines underground out here. It is just a remote area that time sort of forgot. Because of the spotty cell coverage many people including myself have landlines still. Those lines are also above ground. During the January 2012 snow event I was without phone service for about 3 days.

 

The best I can do for internet up here is satellite, which is an overpriced drag.

 

 

We have really good cell coverage because we are only 2.5 miles from I-90 and above the valley.

 

We have been suffering with crappy CenturyLink DSL service for far too long.    We have Xfinity connecting our house hopefully next week... getting the 150mps "BLAST INTERNET".  :)   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For the record... the ECMWF is now wet all day Thursday while the GFS and Canadian show the old ECMWF solution from yesterday (warmer and drier).

 

I think Thursday will probably be the worst day of the week now and the other models will catch-up again.

 

Also... the ECMWF is totally dry on Saturday while the GFS is very wet.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sounds nice. It is a disgusting drippy and damp 34 degrees here.

 

Off and on frozen mix through the day here. Only a high of 33º today. Currently 32º dp 20º so the offshore flow continues up here. Things are still pretty dry and frozen solid with a top glaze of ice now. 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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You've reached a new level of anti-fuzziness lately.

 

I'm gonna chalk it up as just another fallout from the Infinite Warm Anomalies of 2014-15. Hopefully the chilliness of Nov 2015 will turn things around and make everyone a little more amiable, even if it's a fake amiable.

I think he's cranky that the extended period of warm anomalies is ending, if anything.
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It is hard to imagine a world where I would have to use satellite internet on a day-to-day basis. I couldn't work, and probably work out of a Starbucks out of necessity.

It is awful I have the max data plan they will allow me to have out here and I usually use it up by the middle of the service month, then they throttle my internet the rest of the month. I have high speed at the office, so that is nice. I am working from my home office today though and it is frustratingly slow going through about 400 progress notes from the holiday weekend with throttled internet.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Share on other sites

We came very close to dropping $7,000 on a whole house generator back in December of 2006 after being in the dark and cold for 10 days.

 

But then we got lazy and put it off and that was a good thing.   They rebuilt the entire power system (and transmission lines) out here after that storm and also connected our area underground to the main terminal in North Bend right by Safeway.    Before that, our power was routed up through a neighborhood with overhead power lines and huge trees.   We moved into this house in August 2005 and the power would go out for long periods of time before December of 2006.   I remember we were down for 3 or 4 days in December 2005 and another 3 days during the snow of November 2006.

 

After December 2006... the only time our power has gone out for more than 2 minutes was during the ice storm in January 2012 and that was because of damage to the transmission lines.    Otherwise it never goes out regardless of how strong the wind blows or how much snow we get.   We never lost power in December 2008 and we had almost 4 feet of snow on the ground.

I am wondering, if there is a way for an electrician to wire in a "pigtail" with a 240v plug on it, that simply hangs out of the bottom of my power meter. So that, if/when my power goes out I can just fire up the generator and wheel it over to the meter and plug into the pigtail and flip the breaker and have power. The only problem I would see is figuring out how to not send power into the transmission lines. I know zilch about electricity other then more amps is hotter for welding and vice versa(I'm a welder...). There has to be a "budget" minded way to make that work, safely, and legally. I have seen those sweet kohler 15k watt 3 cyl. diesel gensets that are permanently fixed on their own concrete slab behind a house & wired into house electrical and kick on automatically when power is out. I don't need anything fancy like that. I already have a nice 10,000 watt honda generator. 

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I am wondering, if there is a way for an electrician to wire in a "pigtail" with a 240v plug on it, that simply hangs out of the bottom of my power meter. So that, if/when my power goes out I can just fire up the generator and wheel it over to the meter and plug into the pigtail and flip the breaker and have power. The only problem I would see is figuring out how to not send power into the transmission lines. I know zilch about electricity other then more amps is hotter for welding and vice versa(I'm a welder...). There has to be a "budget" minded way to make that work, safely, and legally. I have seen those sweet kohler 15k watt 3 cyl. diesel gensets that are permanently fixed on their own concrete slab behind a house & wired into house electrical and kick on automatically when power is out. I don't need anything fancy like that. I already have a nice 10,000 watt honda generator.

You should consider a generator switch. Super easy to install! :) You can get for around $300 to start.

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Pdx 37/24

Sle 35/20

EUG 35/18

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Departures

 

PDX -12

SLE -14

EUG -15

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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