November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Do you happen to have a link to the HRR?

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t1&run_time=15+Nov+2015+-+05Z

 

That should lead you there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to get breezy out there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t1&run_time=15+Nov+2015+-+05Z

 

That should lead you there.

 

Thanks Alpine. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My temp has now spiked to 56. 

[ShawniganLake]

That is very promising indeed!

*Webcam sweep Update*

 

Looks like it is SNOWING at the Heckelsville shed on the Olympic peninsula.  33F at 928ft.

 

[Jesse]

My temp has now spiked to 56.

It's not all about numbers man.

[Front Ranger]

*Webcam sweep Update*

 

Looks like it is SNOWING at the Heckelsville shed on the Olympic peninsula.  33F at 928ft.

 

HeckShed_medium.jpg

 

Looks like several inches of accumulation already...must be quite heavy.

[seattleweatherguy]

The HRRR doesn't show anything unless I read it wrong

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 38 at Port Angeles. 

[ShawniganLake]

The HRRR doesn't show anything unless I read it wrong

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015111505/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f16.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Might be a hole over bothell or kenmore. How did you get there to see that map

[ShawniganLake]

Might be a hole over bothell or kenmore. How did you get there to see that map

Through the link above, then scroll down to "total accumulated snowfall", then go over to the right and click on which hour you want to look at.  I clicked hour16

[luvssnow_spokane]

32 clallam Bay

38 Port Angeles

38 Sequim

36 Quinalt

[seattleweatherguy]

Through the link above, then scroll down to "total accumulated snowfall", then go over to the right and click on which hour you want to look at. I clicked hour16

Thanks

[seattleweatherguy]

32 clallam Bay

38 Port Angeles

38 Sequim

36 Quinalt

 

good direction hope it continues. But that HRRR seems to show a big white spot where I am at. I still see it as a close call.

[snow_wizard]

32 clallam Bay

38 Port Angeles

38 Sequim

36 Quinalt

The interesting thing is the WRF indicates lower 925mb temps over the East Puget Sound lowlands late tonight than it shows at any time for the Olympic Peninsula. We definitely have a shot. Precip intensity and duration will be key. If anything happens to prolong the precip it could get really interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some sharp temp drops. HIO dropped 11 degrees in an hour and has NW winds gusting to 36 MPH. 

[MossMan]

Heavy rain the last several hours and gusty north winds. Current temp is 38 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Its snowing here... but not sticking at all.    

 

33.8 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Sticking now... ground is turning white.

[MossMan]

Just rain and 38 degrees still!

[MossMan]

Sticking now... ground is turning white.

Don't forget pictures later!!

[TT-SEA]

I-90 at Snoqualmie Parkway / Highway 18 exit... about 800 feet.

 

http://s10.postimg.org/9c3wlnint/090vc02567.jpg

[luvssnow_spokane]

Rain and 38 here.. Just as I expected.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing and 32.1 degrees here.

 

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing and 32.1 degrees here.

 

Nice heard from a friend there was slushy snow falling in Puyallup of all places.

[bainbridgekid]

NWS seems pretty concerned about high winds on Tuesday. Rare to see this much detail about one storm.

 

I FIND TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST ALARMING PART OF THE
FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO WIND CONCERNS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. ON TUE. THE 00Z NAM WAS WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING IN
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION TOO. THE 06Z GFS IS EVEN STRONGER AND MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE
LOW...DROPPING IN FROM THE N-NW ON TUE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BE
PRECEDED BY A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE PRECIP...BUT THE SHORT DURATION
OF JUST A FEW HOURS WILL LIMIT THE HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS. HOWEVER
REGARDING WIND...AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER B.C. DEEPENS INTO THE
980-990 MB RANGE ON TUE AFTN...AND PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...S-SW PRESSURE GRADIENTS REALLY PICK UP...AND WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS. THE MOST BULLISH OF THE
MODELS...THE 06Z GFS...BRINGS THE OLM-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
+12.8 MB AT 21Z TUE...WITH THE UIL-BLI GRADIENT PEAKING NEAR +5.3
MB AT 00Z TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY BEARISH 06Z NAM
BRINGS LARGE SWATH OF SWLY 925 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT THROUGH THE
STRAIT AND THROUGH SOUTH AND CENTRAL PUGET SOUND. MEANWHILE...THE
MORE BULLISH 06Z GFS BRINGS 925 MB WINDS OF 60-70 KT...JUST AS THE
COLD ADVECTION IS ABOUT TO SET IN. COLD ADVECTION IS
NOTEWORTHY...BECAUSE IT HELPS TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH A
GREATER DEPTH AND PULL DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE. THE 06Z GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR
SEA-TAC PEAKS THE SUSTAINED WIND AT 37 KNOTS...WHILE THE GFS-BASED
MARINE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AND ALARMING 48 KT
SUSTAINED AT WESTPOINT...WHICH IS AT THE TIP OF SEATTLE`S
DISCOVERY PARK. BOTTOM LINE IS TO CHECK BACK TO SEE IF LATER MODEL
RUNS ARE STILL STRAYING THIS WAY. IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS...IT IS
THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD SUPPORT A LULL OR SUCKER HOLE IN
THE WIND DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS PATTERN
WOULD BE IN LOCATIONS OPEN TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN SEATTLE. DUE TO THIS EVENT STILL BEING
60 HOURS OUT...WILL SAVE DECISIONS ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
DAY SHIFT.HANER

 

EDIT: The 12z GFS is just as strong. This has potential to be quite significant despite a very odd track coming in from the NW and strengthening over the mountains of Canada.

 

[stuffradio]

NWS seems pretty concerned about high winds on Tuesday. Rare to see this much detail about one storm.

 

I FIND TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST ALARMING PART OF THE

FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO WIND CONCERNS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE

IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY

EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. ON TUE. THE 00Z NAM WAS WEAK AND

UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING IN

TOWARD THIS SOLUTION TOO. THE 06Z GFS IS EVEN STRONGER AND MORE

PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE

LOW...DROPPING IN FROM THE N-NW ON TUE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BE

PRECEDED BY A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE PRECIP...BUT THE SHORT DURATION

OF JUST A FEW HOURS WILL LIMIT THE HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS. HOWEVER

REGARDING WIND...AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER B.C. DEEPENS INTO THE

980-990 MB RANGE ON TUE AFTN...AND PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE...S-SW PRESSURE GRADIENTS REALLY PICK UP...AND WINDS ALOFT

INCREASE TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS. THE MOST BULLISH OF THE

MODELS...THE 06Z GFS...BRINGS THE OLM-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO

+12.8 MB AT 21Z TUE...WITH THE UIL-BLI GRADIENT PEAKING NEAR +5.3

MB AT 00Z TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY BEARISH 06Z NAM

BRINGS LARGE SWATH OF SWLY 925 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT THROUGH THE

STRAIT AND THROUGH SOUTH AND CENTRAL PUGET SOUND. MEANWHILE...THE

MORE BULLISH 06Z GFS BRINGS 925 MB WINDS OF 60-70 KT...JUST AS THE

COLD ADVECTION IS ABOUT TO SET IN. COLD ADVECTION IS

NOTEWORTHY...BECAUSE IT HELPS TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH A

GREATER DEPTH AND PULL DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STATISTICAL

GUIDANCE IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE. THE 06Z GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR

SEA-TAC PEAKS THE SUSTAINED WIND AT 37 KNOTS...WHILE THE GFS-BASED

MARINE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AND ALARMING 48 KT

SUSTAINED AT WESTPOINT...WHICH IS AT THE TIP OF SEATTLE`S

DISCOVERY PARK. BOTTOM LINE IS TO CHECK BACK TO SEE IF LATER MODEL

RUNS ARE STILL STRAYING THIS WAY. IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS...IT IS

THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD SUPPORT A LULL OR SUCKER HOLE IN

THE WIND DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS PATTERN

WOULD BE IN LOCATIONS OPEN TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN SEATTLE. DUE TO THIS EVENT STILL BEING

60 HOURS OUT...WILL SAVE DECISIONS ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE

DAY SHIFT.HANER

 

EDIT: The 12z GFS is just as strong. This has potential to be quite significant despite a very odd track coming in from the NW and strengthening over land

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

I just want snow.

[TT-SEA]

[bainbridgekid]

Quite a few legitimately arctic Ensemble members for Thanksgiving.

 

[Front Ranger]

Nice, no surprise that you scored. I'm guessing this is one of the earlier times you've seen accumulating snow, Tim?

[TT-SEA]

Nice, no surprise that you scored. I'm guessing this is one of the earlier times you've seen accumulating snow, Tim?

Earliest ever for us here... but multiple events after the 20th.

[luvssnow_spokane]

NWS seems pretty concerned about high winds on Tuesday. Rare to see this much detail about one storm.

 

I FIND TUESDAY TO BE THE MOST ALARMING PART OF THE

FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO WIND CONCERNS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE

IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY

EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN B.C. ON TUE. THE 00Z NAM WAS WEAK AND

UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE 06Z NAM IS TRENDING IN

TOWARD THIS SOLUTION TOO. THE 06Z GFS IS EVEN STRONGER AND MORE

PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE

LOW...DROPPING IN FROM THE N-NW ON TUE AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BE

PRECEDED BY A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE PRECIP...BUT THE SHORT DURATION

OF JUST A FEW HOURS WILL LIMIT THE HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS. HOWEVER

REGARDING WIND...AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER B.C. DEEPENS INTO THE

980-990 MB RANGE ON TUE AFTN...AND PRECEDING THE COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE...S-SW PRESSURE GRADIENTS REALLY PICK UP...AND WINDS ALOFT

INCREASE TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS. THE MOST BULLISH OF THE

MODELS...THE 06Z GFS...BRINGS THE OLM-BLI PRESSURE GRADIENT TO

+12.8 MB AT 21Z TUE...WITH THE UIL-BLI GRADIENT PEAKING NEAR +5.3

MB AT 00Z TUE AFTN. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVELY BEARISH 06Z NAM

BRINGS LARGE SWATH OF SWLY 925 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT THROUGH THE

STRAIT AND THROUGH SOUTH AND CENTRAL PUGET SOUND. MEANWHILE...THE

MORE BULLISH 06Z GFS BRINGS 925 MB WINDS OF 60-70 KT...JUST AS THE

COLD ADVECTION IS ABOUT TO SET IN. COLD ADVECTION IS

NOTEWORTHY...BECAUSE IT HELPS TO MIX THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH A

GREATER DEPTH AND PULL DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STATISTICAL

GUIDANCE IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE. THE 06Z GFS-BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR

SEA-TAC PEAKS THE SUSTAINED WIND AT 37 KNOTS...WHILE THE GFS-BASED

MARINE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE AND ALARMING 48 KT

SUSTAINED AT WESTPOINT...WHICH IS AT THE TIP OF SEATTLE`S

DISCOVERY PARK. BOTTOM LINE IS TO CHECK BACK TO SEE IF LATER MODEL

RUNS ARE STILL STRAYING THIS WAY. IF THERE IS GOOD NEWS...IT IS

THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD SUPPORT A LULL OR SUCKER HOLE IN

THE WIND DOWNWIND OF THE OLYMPICS. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS PATTERN

WOULD BE IN LOCATIONS OPEN TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND

LOCATIONS SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN SEATTLE. DUE TO THIS EVENT STILL BEING

60 HOURS OUT...WILL SAVE DECISIONS ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE

DAY SHIFT.HANER

 

EDIT: The 12z GFS is just as strong. This has potential to be quite significant despite a very odd track coming in from the NW and strengthening over the mountains of Canada.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_9.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png

37 knots is close to 43mph sustained winds in the puget sound folks... This does not include gusts which could 60 or greater!! Yah!!

[bainbridgekid]

37 knots is close to 42mph sustained winds in the puget sound folks... This does not include gusts which could 60 or greater!! Yah!!

Yeah and if 48 knots sustained verified we'd be talking major, major damage.

 

This looks pretty D**n impressive:

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah and if 48 knots sustained verified we'd be talking major, major damage.

 

This looks pretty D**n impressive:

 

slp.54.0000.gif

Yeah that is 55mph + sustained --- serious stuff!!! Millions would lose power with that kind of wind with very substantial damage.

[stuffradio]

Yeah and if 48 knots sustained verified we'd be talking major, major damage.

 

This looks pretty D**n impressive:

 

slp.54.0000.gif

The gradient looks pretty tight in SW BC and most of WA.

[MossMan]

Yeah and if 48 knots sustained verified we'd be talking major, major damage.

 

This looks pretty D**n impressive:

 

slp.54.0000.gif

Wow!! Did this sneak up on the models or were we just focused on the snow?

[bainbridgekid]

Wow!! Did this sneak up on the models or were we just focused on the snow?

It was always there but it strengthened a lot over the last couple days.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow!! Did this sneak up on the models or were we just focused on the snow?

totally snuck as far as its strength... NWS just saw it earlier... This could be an epic wind event in less than 60 hours.

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing in most of east king county now. Lots of grassy areas turning white.