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November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


MikeInEverett

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Sun is coming out in many places... and blue sky approaching here from the south and west.    Almost better than the snow given the dark, rainy conditions lately.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good question... Guess the huge concern at the moment are the huge record breaking hot temps at PDX.

Why can't I talk about what the weather is doing down here? We don't have any heavy rain or snow to speak of.

 

Mid-60s in the last half of November would be notable.

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Why can't I talk about what the weather is doing down here? We don't have any heavy rain or snow to speak of.

 

Mid-60s in the last half of November would be notable.

Never said you couldn't...talk away! :) I expect it to be very intellectual however ;)

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Never said you couldn't...talk away! :) I expect it to be very intellectual however ;)

 

 

Every discussion... the merit of all weather... hinges SOLELY on the departure from normal at PDX.      Get it straight Randy!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12z Canadian is almost identical to the GFS although a bit colder. Both show a high snow threat for right around Thanksgiving.

 

It doesn't look quite as ominous for winds on Tuesday also. I'm still on the fence about that. The low center is further north than would normally be required a for a big blow here and the central pressure is only in the high 980s. As Bainbridge also pointed out there will be no northward momentum from the storm itself. I could see a widespread respectable blow, but not as strong as the Dec 2006 event. I think a triple point occlusion played into the 2006 storm, and I'm not sure if that will be factor this time or not.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 12z Canadian is almost identical to the GFS although a bit colder. Both show a high snow threat for right around Thanksgiving.

Almost seems like November snow is becoming the norm!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z ECMWF does not show a huge windstorm on Tuesday.   Just windy through the Sound.

Disagree.

 

The Euro is just as windy as the GFS.

 

Screenshot 2015-11-15 at 10.55.44 AM.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The 12z GFS ensemble has a lot of good members in the 9 to 10 day time frame.

post-222-0-51448800-1447613762_thumb.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Disagree.

 

The Euro is just as windy as the GFS.

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot 2015-11-15 at 10.55.44 AM.png

 

It appears it keeps the high winds near Puget Sound.  Fine with me.  I still think this one will be a learning experience to some extent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models.   It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality.    

 

Not good.   You can talk about potential all you want... but until the ECMWF shows the real deal we really don't have anything.   And the trend is not our friend with any of this right now with the ECMWF.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That does not look too windy out here... maybe 30 mph?    That is just a normal November day.   :)

Looks pretty intense for the Sound though. Euro shows 35-40 knot sustained winds for Seattle.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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The 12z ECMWF took a step in the right direction. Still not quite as good as the GFS or Canadian, but there's plenty of time...

 

All three agree on cold temps for Thanksgiving though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models.   It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality.    

 

Not good.   You can talk about potential all you want... but until the ECMWF shows the real deal we really don't have anything.   And the trend is not our friend with any of this right now with the ECMWF.   

 

Day 9 was the coldest on the ECMWF.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks pretty intense for the Sound though. Euro shows 35-40 knot sustained winds for Seattle.

Yeah NWS mentions my area as a possible target for high winds but most of western wa will probably go under a high wind watch.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z ECMWF going way east with the cold next week compared to previous runs and the other models.   It already did the same thing for Thursday and Friday and that appears to be reality.    Not good.    

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif

 

Nope.

 

This is the 12z at day 9, note the -10c 850mb temps near the border.

 

 

f216.gif

 

 

The 00z run was in fact milder and certainly wasn't further west with the trough.

 

f216 (1).gif

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Day 9 was the coldest on the ECMWF.

 

Not the point.   The discussion was supposed to be cold and snow for Thanksgiving.   ECMWF is sliding everything farther east.   Way east of the other models by mid-week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My favorite thing about the 12z runs is that the spike of warmth on Tuesday is quickly replaced by another cold airmass Wednesday.

 

After that, we see a drying trend and look to stay reasonably cool. Maybe a first frost at many stations by later next week.

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12Z Canadian at day 10:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

 

12Z GFS at day 10:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

12Z ECMWF at day 10:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111512!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not the point.   The discussion was supposed to be cold and snow for Thanksgiving.   ECMWF is sliding everything farther east.   Way east of the other models by mid-week.

 

Once again, nope. The discussion right now is about tracking the cold airmass itself with the exact timing of it being relatively incidental at this point. I think most of us could give a crap  whether it's coldest on Thankgiving day or not (especially our Canadian posters, LOL!) , so long as the models trend towards some event for us.

 

The 12z Euro run was favorable, even if only slightly, for continuing that trend.

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Yesterday was the first time SEA didn't reach 50 degrees since February 1st.

 

Shattered the longest such streak by 26 days.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Once again, nope. The discussion right now is about tracking the cold airmass itself with the exact timing of it being relatively incidental at this point. I think most of us could give a crap  whether it's coldest on Thankgiving day or not (especially our Canadian posters, LOL!) , so long as the models trend towards some event for us.

 

The 12z Euro run was favorable, even if only slightly, for continuing that trend.

 

Jim said we should be discussing the possibility of a snowy Thanksgiving.   So... yep!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I have a tendency to believe the 12Z Euro. Although I agree that we have a nice chance of hitting some snow/cold before the end of December, I don't think Thanksgiving will be the time. Thinking the ridge will end up too far East for anything good.

 

Would love to be proven wrong.

The ECMWF loves to exaggerate mountain-torque in the LR, hence the bias to dig energy into the SW. Pretty easy to see on the 8-10 progression, in my opinion.

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Hard to see Tuesday verifying as a high-end event with such a massive windfield and such an odd trajectory. Crazy to see it bomb over land though...

 

Much better to focus on snow during a very specific 12 to 18 hour period 10 days from now instead.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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