November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Chilly and frosty later in the week?    Here is Thursday morning.   Right back in the fire hose once again.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/pcp1.84.0000.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What river valley is that out of?

can't remember. Its up by mt zion trail. There is a road that will take you to the base of mt Townsend.

[Jesse]

can't remember. Its up by mt zion trail. There is a road that will take you to the base of mt Townsend.

Ah, sounds like either the Big Quilcene or the Dungeness.

 

We did a lot of trail work up in that area in the spring of '13. Very pretty.

[IbrChris]

Looks pretty chilly around Thanksgiving as the various ensembles suites (ECM, GEFS, CMC) all show the PNW being brushed by modified arctic air as northerly flow develops across the region. It doesn't look that cold yet...6-8 degrees below normal at PDX (something like a 42/30 for hi/lo) but potential exists for things to change quite a bit given this is still in the 11-15 day timeframe. That said, fair agreement in the longwave pattern evolution for that far out. Potential for a transition event the weekend after Thanksgiving...whether that means wintry precip for some of us in the lowlands remains to be seen. What is clear is the first wintry airmass of the season seems to be on tap for the holiday.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks pretty chilly around Thanksgiving as the various ensembles suites (ECM, GEFS, CMC) all show the PNW being brushed by modified arctic air as northerly flow develops across the region. It doesn't look that cold yet...6-8 degrees below normal at PDX (something like a 42/30 for hi/lo) but potential exists for things to change quite a bit given this is still in the 11-15 day timeframe. That said, fair agreement in the longwave pattern evolution for that far out. Potential for a transition event the weekend after Thanksgiving...whether that means wintry precip for some of us in the lowlands remains to be seen. What is clear is the first wintry airmass of the season seems to be on tap for the holiday.

Nice to see you posting. I always enjoy reading your analysis.

[GHweatherChris]

Chilly and frosty later in the week? Here is Thursday morning. Right back in the fire hose once again.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/pcp1.84.0000.gif

I wouldn't call a trace to 3/10 of an inch of precip back under a hose.

 

And, your showing the NAM.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't call a trace to 3/10 of an inch of precip back under a hose.

It's a hose of some sort.

 

Far from the clear and dry that was shown earlier.

[IbrChris]

Nice to see you posting. I always enjoy reading your analysis.

 

Thanks Shawnigan Lake. I enjoy tracking the potential for cold air this time of year and with the holiday down here and the obvious trend over the last several days in the ensembles, figured it was a good time to post my thoughts.

[Jesse]

Glad to see people already pinpointing the timing of the transition event. I was wondering!

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't call a trace to 3/10 of an inch of precip back under a hose.

 

And, your showing the NAM.

 

 

Here is the GFS for Thursday.   That is a fire hose!  Again.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_099_precip_p24.gif

[IbrChris]

Glad to see people already pinpointing the timing of the transition event. I was wondering!

 

Hope last night wasn't too rough waiting for flakes to mix in with the rain atop Bull Mtn. Insomnia is a ***** sure but couple that with even an infinitesimally small chance of seeing a flake...that is sheer torture.

[Jesse]

Cooling off quickly this evening. Definitely the coolest of the season so far.

 

Already 38 here.

[TT-SEA]

Total rain through Friday morning... serious rain this week. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_108_precip_ptot.gif

[Deweydog]

Could be a season-altering comeback...

[TT-SEA]

Could be a season-altering comeback...

Way to jinx it.

[IbrChris]

Total rain through Friday morning... serious rain this week. 

 

 

Just what you guys need up there. We managed a torrential 0.29" out of the last storm down here in Portland. Still running a deficit for the month to date.

[TT-SEA]

Just what you guys need up there. We managed a torrential 0.29" out of the last storm down here in Portland. Still running a deficit for the month to date.

 

Definitely need more rain.   I like 2 feet per week... only getting a foot last week hurts.

[stuffradio]

I will be at above average rain for the month if we get 3"+ at any time this month. That drought though.

 

I'm currently at 33F.

[Deweydog]

Way to jinx it.

Penalties will probably do a better job of that than me.

[TT-SEA]

Penalties will probably do a better job of that than me.

 

 

Holy crap.    I mean WTF.    Hard to win a race when you are carrying a gun and shooting yourself every other step.

[IbrChris]

Quite the torch shown on MOS for Tuesday...GFS has 64, GEFS 61 and CMC 63 at PDX (all MOS values, not raw output).

[Deweydog]

Quite the torch shown on MOS for Tuesday...GFS has 64, GEFS 61 and CMC 63 at PDX (all MOS values, not raw output).

Don't feed into it...

[Deweydog]

Holy crap. I mean WTF. Hard to win a race when you are carrying a gun and shooting yourself every other step.

Pretty low IQ stuff.

[GHweatherChris]

Here is the GFS for Thursday. That is a fire hose! Again.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_099_precip_p24.gif

But you used the NAM as your example which was far from a firehose.

 

You call people out, deal with it when you called out.

[FroYoBro]

Don't feed into it...

[FroYoBro]

But you used the NAM as your example which was far from a firehose.

 

You call people out, deal with it when you called out.

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ICE BURN

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[MossMan]

[Deweydog]

Welp... onto the 6z and training camp in July.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well there is always next year...

[MossMan]

Any updates on the potential windstorm?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Any updates on the potential windstorm?

The only windstorm we care about right now is how much the Seahawks blow.

[stuffradio]

Well there is always next year...

There's always December, January, then next fall/winter.

[HighlandExperience]

The only windstorm we care about right now is how much the Seahawks blow.

 

As soon as the Seahawks starting going to the superbowl we haven't had any good snow in Seattle. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty low IQ stuff.

 

So true.   Relaxing rest of the season now.   Might have to put the Vikings back on top of my cheering hierarchy for the rest of this season.    What a role reversal there in the last year.

 

The Seahawks are just painful in the way they lose.   It all there for them but they just give it away.  It would be much easier to take if they were just beat 38-10 by a far superior team.

[TT-SEA]

What the hell happened to the cold spell coming later this week??    What a screw job by the models.   It just disappeared.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Already down to 31F here this evening. Second freeze of the year. Forecasts for inland Vancouver island were indicating a chance for flurries or freezing rain tomorrow morning. The precip will likely arrive too late for my location.

[luvssnow_spokane]

What the hell happened to the cold spell coming later this week?? What a screw job by the models. It just disappeared.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

You are surprised!!?? This is normal.

[TT-SEA]

Temp is rising here and up to 38... no frost in sight right now. We can get snow but can't go below freezing.

[Timmy]

Below freezing for the first time this year!

[stuffradio]

Temp is rising here and up to 38... no frost in sight right now. We can get snow but can't go below freezing.

I can't get snow, but I can get frost (once so far, but probably again tonight)