November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I can't get snow, but I can get frost (once so far, but probably again tonight)

 

 

Got down to 32.1 with snow this morning for the coldest temp of the season.   But frost will be impossible now until maybe Friday night.   Hard to go until 11/20 here without a below freezing temp but that seems to be the case.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Definitely need more rain.   I like 2 feet per week... only getting a foot last week hurts.[/quote acually many mountain water sheds are still low. Seen one today that was very low still.

[Deweydog]

But I want a frost and a golden egg-laying goose NOW daddy!!!

[TT-SEA]

Definitely need more rain.   I like 2 feet per week... only getting a foot last week hurts.[/quote acually many mountain water sheds are still low. Seen one today that was very low still.

 

 

Whatever.    

 

SEA was just about normal for the water year ending 9/30/15 and already running close to 5 inches above normal for this water year and its only 6 weeks old.

[MikeInEverett]

36 with heavy rain/hail in Mill Creek right now. Was hoping the heavy rain could possibly drop the temperature, but it doesn't look like that's gonna be the case.

[stuffradio]

I'm at 32F and there is definitely frost now outside.

[TT-SEA]

Oh... and the GFS plows our supposed thanksgiving cold spell under with warm and wet SW flow before it really gets going.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Oh... and the GFS plows our supposed thanksgiving cold spell under with warm and wet SW flow before it really gets going.

And we should expect anything other than that?  It will verify as that is about the most realistic scenario for our climate, don't ya think. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

As far as our windstorm it appears to be in play ... for now...

This is from the 4:20pm AFD form the NWS....

 

.....THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM12 AND GFS20 SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF

SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ON THE JET THAT
RIDES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND THEN INTO
ALBERTA ON TUESDAY. THE FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING AS IT
MOVES EAST. THE WIND FIELD WITH THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS
AT 925 MB OR AROUND 2000 FEET...WSW AT 60 TO 75 KT. FIRST...THE WIND
WILL TRANSPORT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL PACIFIC
INTO THE AREA AND CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIKELY RENEWED
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
THEN TUE MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON...EXPECT PRES GRADIENTS TO INCREASE
WITH KPDX-KBLI GRADIENTS INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MB. THE
CONSERVATIVE MOS WIND FORECASTS ARE SHOWING HIGH WIND FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT MANY LOCATIONS AND FROM THE WEST NEAR THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AFTER THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THIS POTENTIAL WIND EVENT FOR TUESDAY MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION. AREA SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY WITH MANY AREAS SEEING WIND GUSTS
65 TO 75 MPH. THIS COMBINATION MEANS A LARGE NUMBER OF TREES COULD
BE TOPPLED AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES OCCUR. IF THE WINDS OCCUR AS
FORECAST...THERE MAY ALSO BE A NUMBER OF STRUCTURES THAT REPORT ROOF
DAMAGE WITH WINDS THIS STRONG. ALBRECHT

[Jesse]

How is the timing for that transition event looking on the 00Z??

 

Hopefully nobody's Black Friday plans will be affected by the impending snow to ZR mess!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww...

[Jesse]

No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww...

Trending way warmer. Back to the regularly scheduled torching.

 

Although I guess that would be implying it ever stopped down here.

[IbrChris]

Pretty wild that we could hit the mid 60s on Tuesday....downright Hawaiian.

[stuffradio]

How is the timing for that transition event looking on the 00Z??

 

Hopefully nobody's Black Friday plans will be affected by the impending snow to ZR mess!

I will be sitting at my keyboard the same way in the rain as I would with snow.

 

00Z GFS has another AR event to end November.  Could end up with at least 4" above normal rain if 00Z verified.

[IbrChris]

Would be foolish to ride the trainwreck of the operational GFS in the 11-15 day period. I suggest auditing a course in NWP along with some anti-depressants.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wow afd is late today

[ShawniganLake]

No one is posting ensembles either... Awwww...

Still 7 members dropping below -10C during week 2 for Vancouver, it could be worse. 

 

[Jbolin]

Wow afd is late today

Yes it is, been refreshing since 1020 

[IbrChris]

Not much change in the ensembles and GEFS is not the only suite showing cool temps in the extended.

 

I get it though, you are a serial whiner Jesse. You whine when it's hot, you whine when it's cold, you whine when its neither. It's like a case of chronic tinnitus. Market that s**t as "Jesse's Tears IPA" and move out of your in-laws house.

Your petulant churlishness permeates these forums. An academic forum would kick your a** to the curb faster than you could say "Portland is the new LA"

[seattleweatherguy]

Scott sistex from komo says on twitter he thinks that max winds are 60 to 65 vs 75 and says,storm weaker.

[Jbolin]

Scott sistex from komo says on twitter he thinks that max winds are 60 to 65 vs 75 and says,storm weaker.

Sistek?

[Jbolin]

AFD is out

Edit: and it's pretty D**n boring but wouldn't expect much from the night shift, will wait until the senior met's get in tomorrow am.

[stuffradio]

AFD is out 

Doesn't have much new info on it though.

[seattleweatherguy]

Sistek?

Forgive my spelling

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has a nice Arctic outbreak and moves up the timing from previous runs.  This is very typical model behavior before a cold wave.  The models take turns looking good and then looking bad.  Tonight's ECMWF has a gorgeous surface high pressure complex that is nicely balanced between strong surface high off the coast and strong surface high pressure over Western Canada.

 

The WRF backed off a full notch on the windstorm for Tuesday.  To me the setup just looks wrong for big winds in the Seattle area.  Some localized places could get blasted though.

[IbrChris]

Well hello 00z ECM...-10c H8 on the 25th. Probably too aggressive but nice to see the potential there.

[seattleweatherguy]

The ECMWF has a nice Arctic outbreak and moves up the timing from previous runs. This is very typical model behavior before a cold wave. The models take turns looking good and then looking bad. Tonight's ECMWF has a gorgeous surface high pressure complex that is nicely balanced between strong surface high off the coast and strong surface high pressure over Western Canada.

 

The WRF backed off a full notch on the windstorm for Tuesday. To me the setup just looks wrong for big winds in the Seattle area. Some localized places could get blasted though.

 

Sounds like the regular 40 to 50 mph storm.

[Jesse]

Nice looking Euro run.

 

I am thinking between midnight and 6am for the snow to ZR transition the weekend after next.

[IbrChris]

I'm thinking a real risk of 32.1 degree moderate rain with a +1c 850 and 925 mb temp over the course of 12 hours with an east wind of 10-15 mph. #PortlandWintersAreAwesomeAsF*ck

[Jesse]

I didn't realize Mormons were allowed to drink these days.

 

Progress!

[IbrChris]

I didn't realize Mormons were allowed to drink these days.

 

Progress!

I didn't know knowledge of alcoholic beverages is limited to those who consume them. Is knowledge of drunk driving limited to those who drive drunk?

 

On the bright side you'll know I'm always dead sober when I post on here, unlike some.

[Jesse]

It would be nice if PDX managed to record 30s before midnight.

 

Clearing and 36 here.

[High Desert Mat]

Not me

[IbrChris]

Jesse you live probably no more than a mile from me...I really should have invited you over for a BBQ last summer. You can bring your favorite IPA...I'm cool with that. It's true the view isn't particularly great from my location and I'm south wind sheltered, but hopefully you could look past that.

Sure we have our back and forth on here, and sometimes you remind me a bit of my 3 year old kid but hey we each have our foibles.

[BLI snowman]

I'm thinking a real risk of 32.1 degree moderate rain with a +1c 850 and 925 mb temp over the course of 12 hours with an east wind of 10-15 mph. #PortlandWintersAreAwesomeAsF*ck

 

January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain.

[IbrChris]

January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain.

Really I was just thinking of the most miserable situation I could come up with. Any colder and people would think "Oooh...ZR". Any warmer and it's just warmer rain. Any windier and weenies will get excited over an "east wind storm"

[snow_wizard]

Looks I came up with a 45-33 high / low and a trace of snow today.  Solidly chilly for this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

January 1980 redux. All snow for I-84 north. Rain at Bull Mountain.

 

 

I could really do with a Jan 1980 redux.  Where I was living at the time did pretty well, and it appears where I live now did even better.

[snow_wizard]

My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not.  It seems the model improvements haven't made much difference in such cases.  To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event. 

[IbrChris]

My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not.  It seems the model improvements haven't made much different in such cases.  To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event. 

 

I look at ensembles and run-to-run continuity as well as general agreement in the pattern evolution. Certainly the ensembles handle large upper level ridges better than progressive patterns or tail events like arctic outbreaks. All I'm taking away at this point is that there's gathering potential for a rather cool spell (chilly depending on your view of such things) in the distance.

 

Really if we want to examine the ensembles we should be looking at the entire hemispheric pattern, teleconnections, state of MJO etc. As well as the stuff Phil likes to discuss.

 

Of course if you asked some on here I just predicted the first snow at PDX down to the hour and minute tonight. Black Friday chaos! Hundred car pileup at the bottom of eastbound Sunset Hwy near the tunnel. City at a standstill for a week!