November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

I could really do with a Jan 1980 redux.  Where I was living at the time did pretty well, and it appears where I live now did even better.

 

My current area had about 35" with that in 3 days. I'd probably feel okay about it.

[stuffradio]

It's 31 and frosty outside!

[Deweydog]

My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not. It seems the model improvements haven't made much difference in such cases. To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event.

I think weenies are probably the only people desperate for that flavor of accuracy. Better short and mid term accuracy is what we need to protect life and property so that is probably where the technological energy should be spent. Obsessive curiousity doesn't quite cut it.

[GHweatherChris]

Frosty out when I left for work.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF for next week is spectacular.  

 

Best run yet.   

[MikeInEverett]

First frost of the year in Mill Creek.

[luvssnow_spokane]

3rd frost on my car in Bonney Lake( the epicenter of all things winter) eat your hearts out kids! ... Epic!

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped down to 29F here overnight before the clouds moved in.  Currently 31.8F with heavy frost but with some light rain starting to fall. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Couple pics from yesterday @ 4000 ft in olympics.

[TT-SEA]

Dropped down to 29F here overnight before the clouds moved in.  Currently 31.8F with heavy front but with some light rain starting to fall. 

 

 

Only got down to 34 here thanks to lingering clouds.

 

I am not good at analyzing windstorms... but its seems like the models have trended to just a standard wind event rather than one that will be damaging.   

 

Can someone confirm?

[ShawniganLake]

Only got down to 34 here thanks to lingering clouds.

 

I am not good at analyzing windstorms... but its seems like the models have trended to just a standard wind event rather than one that will be damaging.   

 

Can someone confirm?

I would agree with you.  Looks windy but not major. 

[TT-SEA]

Interesting set-up going into the long Thanksgiving weekend...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_219_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

And it goes nowhere on that run...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

And here is the 12Z Canadian for Thanksgiving.   Craptastic model runs so far today!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Thanksgiving trough on the 12z GFS isn't that great, it is fairly splitty and uneventful. 

[Jesse]

The Thanksgiving trough on the 12z GFS isn't that great, it is fairly splitty and uneventful.

Looks like a pretty 2015 solution.

[Jesse]

At least the 12z doesn't torch as bad for this week.

[High Desert Mat]

My question is...will the models ever be able to reliably predict Arctic outbreaks in the NW a week ahead of time or not. It seems the model improvements haven't made much difference in such cases. To this day I think the best model performance I ever saw was the GFS ensemble with the Dec 1998 event.

[High Desert Mat]

If I recall correctly, in snowmagedon '08, the models latched on to the solution fairly early and stuck with it. Anyone else remember that?

[Kayla]

12z GFS Ensembles still look good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi

[ShawniganLake]

12z GFS Ensembles still look good.

 

50% of the members go arctic up here (below -10C)

[Kayla]

50% of the members go arctic up here (below -10C)

 

Definitely a great trend.

[Timmy]

At least the 12z doesn't torch as bad for this week.

Yeah I was really sweating that...

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF looks amazing for cold and lowland snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Jesse]

Yeah I was really sweating that...

Feel free to put me on ignore if you don't like what I'm posting. I am free to follow whatever aspect of the weather I choose.

 

Cooler weather this week means more snow sticking around in the mountains, which we could also use, as exciting as Black Friday transition events are.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ECMWF looks amazing for cold and lowland snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

 

Through hour 192 it looks good. We'll see where it goes from here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111612/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.pngMy guess is the next two frames show this shot being relatively transitory. The block is not strong enough to deliver true arctic air. 

[ShawniganLake]

12z ECMWF looks amazing for cold and lowland snow.

 

 

Not overly cold at that point.  At hour 216, 850mb temps of -10C are approaching the Canadian border. 

[Kayla]

Not overly cold at that point.  At hour 216, 850mb temps of -10C are approaching the Canadian border. 

 

I just like to see that the runs have continued to improve and I love the placement of that low. Long ways to go though.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro is not as cold as the 0z at the end, but the overall pattern remains pretty similar. Nothing like the Canadian, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The corresponding teleconnections on the 12z EURO do not indicate an arctic blast. 

[Jesse]

The corresponding teleconnections on the 12z EURO do not indicate an arctic blast.

Wahh wuhhh.

[Timmy]

12z ECMWF looks amazing for cold and lowland snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111612/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

this would happen right as I leave for texas.  hopefully I am back for some sort of overrunning event on the following monday.  or maybe models will push it back a few days.

[seattleweatherguy]

If I recall correctly, in snowmagedon '08, the models latched on to the solution fairly early and stuck with it. Anyone else remember that?

 

The gfs teased us flipping back and forth before going steady. Sounds like the gusts on Tuesday will be 50 to 55 maybe 60 vs 75

[TT-SEA]

The gfs teased us flipping back and forth before going steady. Sounds like the gusts on Tuesday will be 50 to 55 maybe 60 vs 75

 

 

60 vs 75??

 

What does that mean?

[MossMan]

The gfs teased us flipping back and forth before going steady. Sounds like the gusts on Tuesday will be 50 to 55 maybe 60 vs 75

Looks like the biggest concern is the westerlies down the straight later tomorrow that might push even into my area.

[ShawniganLake]

60 vs 75??

 

What does that mean?

60 mph, instead of the 75mph they were mentioning previously 

[MossMan]

60 vs 75??

 

What does that mean?

75 was yesterday's estimated gusts for tomorrow, now at 60 per today's forecast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wahh wuhhh.

 

The blocking ridge is not strong enough to deliver anything good. 

[MossMan]

The blocking ridge is not strong enough to deliver anything good.

Lots of time for that to change! I have a feeling we will end up with some cold and white, just a matter of how long, how cold, and how white. Perhaps a repeat of Nov. 2014?