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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


The Blob

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28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sadly, you're fidna be entombed...

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arnold schwarzenegger polar vortex GIF

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   😀

graph-from-scott-wing-620px (1).png

Very interesting graph. What was the source of this?  Would love to check it out more. I knew most of Earth's history was significantly warmer than today but wouldn't have guessed the peaks were 30 degrees warmer.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Very interesting graph. What was the source of this?  Would love to check it out more. I knew most of Earth's history was significantly warmer than today but wouldn't have guessed the peaks were 30 degrees warmer.

https://www.science.org/content/article/500-million-year-survey-earths-climate-reveals-dire-warning-humanity

Pretty crazy... we talk about destroying Earth with global warming but really we just mean we screw it up for ourselves.   The Earth will be totally fine even if it was much warmer.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Step back on the ensembles thus far. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

https://www.science.org/content/article/500-million-year-survey-earths-climate-reveals-dire-warning-humanity

Pretty crazy... we talk about destroying Earth with global warming but really we just mean we screw it up for ourselves.   The Earth will be totally fine even it was much warmer.  

Animated GIF

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

https://www.science.org/content/article/500-million-year-survey-earths-climate-reveals-dire-warning-humanity

Pretty crazy... we talk about destroying Earth with global warming but really we just mean we screw it up for ourselves.   The Earth will be totally fine even it was much warmer.  

No doubt. Our planet is far more resilient than a lot of people think. Though plenty of species will go extinct along the way.

The only issue with that graph is the scale is so large that it's impossible to tell how much faster the temperature rise is now than in previous ones. Other ones also look nearly vertical, but even a rise that took a few million years would look that way on that scale which would obviously be fundamentally different from the human induced temp rises we've seen from the last couple hundred years.

A sea level rise that takes thousands of years is pretty easy to adjust to. But one that takes just 100 is much harder since it floods cities and ruins recently built buildings.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

No doubt. Our planet is far more resilient than a lot of people think. Though plenty of species will go extinct along the way.

The only issue with that graph is the scale is so large that it's impossible to tell how much faster the temperature rise is now than in previous ones. Other ones also look nearly vertical, but even a rise that took a few million years would look that way on that scale which would obviously be fundamentally different from the human induced temp rises we've seen from the last couple hundred years.

A sea level rise that takes thousands of years is pretty easy to adjust to. But one that takes just 100 is much harder since it floods cities and ruins recently built buildings.

I found it interesting that volcanoes are largely responsible for dramatic warming periods over the last 500 million years.   We think of volcanoes as cooling the earth, but another huge impact from volcanoes over a much longer time frame is related to pumping massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.     The Siberian Traps volcanic event around 250 million years ago was responsible for warming the Earth for the next 50 million years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some black ice conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-3803200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some icy conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-3803200.png

Frost in early February. Knock me over with a feather. 

  • Popcorn 1
  • Windy 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

  • Rain 1
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

I think it'll be cool and wet. Should help our summer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   😀

graph-from-scott-wing-620px (1).png

That graph actually has a statistical manipulation at the end. Basically assuming the Holocene interglacial is a new epoch and there will be no subsequent glacial inception (which is almost certainly false). So they simply “add in” the spike.

In reality, on the resolution they use, the kind would still be going down.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

Pure. Conjecture.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   😀

graph-from-scott-wing-620px (1).png

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

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2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

No doubt. Our planet is far more resilient than a lot of people think. Though plenty of species will go extinct along the way.

The only issue with that graph is the scale is so large that it's impossible to tell how much faster the temperature rise is now than in previous ones. Other ones also look nearly vertical, but even a rise that took a few million years would look that way on that scale which would obviously be fundamentally different from the human induced temp rises we've seen from the last couple hundred years.

A sea level rise that takes thousands of years is pretty easy to adjust to. But one that takes just 100 is much harder since it floods cities and ruins recently built buildings.

The temperature rise today is not all that fast compared to the high amplitude gyrations that occurred and falls during glacials (and glacial terminations). And even the Holocene itself.

This the reality of last 5 million years (limited resolution, of course, but still higher than the other graph).BF1C5FEE-D564-4D41-B5BE-4B273BB51E79.thumb.jpeg.a4989500cf6f14bddb87b64e41751e88.jpeg

And here is the last 100,000 years, viewed on an even *higher* resolution. All of this was smoothed away on Tim’s graph (the blue line reflects today’s temperature).

77338A9D-4019-4ED5-AEFF-1CB0DFE07690.thumb.jpeg.3a0c3a506afd01a051423778df544750.jpeg 

 

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ensembles generally look like a step back across the board today.  EPS still pretty ridgy through Valentine’s Day. 

Booooooo

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

Just crazy.   The tropics have been encased in ice and too hot for most life to exist.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That said, super PV begins to increase cold risks during the spring, as it breaks down (usually in April/May). Particularly true if it’s a dynamic final warming (or if the vortex remains very strong into late April).

Doesn’t mean the cold will be centered in the West, but odds are higher with any IPWP/WPAC component to tropical forcing. Still, would not surprise me if the West experiences an anomalously cold pattern sometime in the late-March to early May timeframe.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Immovable object. Could be tough to overcome.A9995D88-2FA4-44C2-A3D0-A62E921769E3.thumb.gif.adb423b547c98310a22373a089c8c1ef.gif

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where is the 5” of snow that yesterdays WRF was advertising for me? 

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

What did the PV look like in late February 2011?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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+TNH can be cold in the West, BTW. And certainly can evolve/retrograde into a very cold pattern.

But it’s fickle/borderline..shift it slightly east and it becomes a ridgy pattern with cold in E-Canada/US, or slightly west and it’s closer to canonical Niña pattern with a SE-ridge.

In conjunction with a strong vortex (in-situ +AAM/transports statistically favored at certain latitudes) the outcome may be of the more progressive variety, with the +TNH complex better-resembling the western ridge/baffin island vortex scenario.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   ;)

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

D83F4878-1FB8-4C8C-B193-E6F6FC5DCC2C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I'm so bored. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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