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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


The Blob

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10 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

See, I'm just not sure that's a good thing. I would definitely miss the cold, rain, and snow. But some things are more important than climate.

Bleh, I feel dirty saying that.

True... living in a resort style community might get old after awhile and a change of seasons is nice.    I am fine as long as our warm season does not end up like a continuation of the cold season... but I am often disappointed in May and June and sometimes even parts of July.   

I am not usually bothered by much from November - March but April - June can be quite a drag.   And that is unfortunately climo here.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... living in a resort style community might get old after awhile and a change of seasons is nice.    I am fine as long as our warm season does not end up like a continuation of the cold season... but I am often disappointed in May and June and sometimes even parts of July.    I am not usually bothered by from November - March but April - June can be quite a drag.   And that is unfortunately climo here.

 

It was especially annoying during my playing days with the amount of delays or cancellations. When the baseball season starts late Feb/early March, you check the forecast a ton and have to plan accordingly.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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February could be one of the most boring in years...

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Arizona has a first time home buyers program that my brother got 14.5k out of for a down payment. His car insurance rates also cut in half when he moved there.

We would meet the criteria for a grant from the state for a house, so there's some extra cash there.

I'm also hoping Crypto goes on another bull run by the time we get to Fall. I keep throwing cash at ETH while it's down.

I looked into drawing on my 401k, but the plan through my employer doesn't allow it, unfortunately.

Washington State also has a home buyers program, and I can personally vouch that it's awesome. Six of us at my job took the class in 2019, the certificate lasted for two years, and in that time all of us got a 4% grant for a downpayment on our homes. Combined with what I had saved up, I was able to put 10% down; others basically paid for the closing and put nothing down more than the 4%. If your credit is more than 620 and you make less than $150k a year (more for a couple) than you qualify. It's also great because it's not a first time home buyer program, but just a home buyer program. So you could sell your place and the next day be eligible again. 

http://www.wshfc.org/buyers/

Don't move to the desert. Isn't the Phoenix area supposed to run out of water in the next 15-20 years? I spent 6 years in a different sandbox, and let me tell you, it's borrrrrrring at best. And bloody hot. Even the occasional sandstorm was just annoying. Plus everyone looks like leather jerky by 50 😉

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i'm use to summer doldrums coming up here from coastal CA.  boring wx most of the time, broken record forecasts, day in/day out.  June gloom, blah, blah, blah

 

but these winter doldrums up here, especially this year seem to be unique to the west coast.  consistently mundane, stable wx for weeks, even months on end. BOOORING!

 

get me back to New England.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I like living in the PNW 🌲 

Yeah, I agree. I've talked about moving other places, but I really have no interest. I live in a nice area, it would be fun to live in Joseph or Baker City, but probably couldn't really make a living out there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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29 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

Washington State also has a home buyers program, and I can personally vouch that it's awesome. Six of us at my job took the class in 2019, the certificate lasted for two years, and in that time all of us got a 4% grant for a downpayment on our homes. Combined with what I had saved up, I was able to put 10% down; others basically paid for the closing and put nothing down more than the 4%. If your credit is more than 620 and you make less than $150k a year (more for a couple) than you qualify. It's also great because it's not a first time home buyer program, but just a home buyer program. So you could sell your place and the next day be eligible again. 

http://www.wshfc.org/buyers/

Don't move to the desert. Isn't the Phoenix area supposed to run out of water in the next 15-20 years? I spent 6 years in a different sandbox, and let me tell you, it's borrrrrrring at best. And bloody hot. Even the occasional sandstorm was just annoying. Plus everyone looks like leather jerky by 50 😉

Like I said, some thing are more important than the climate. That's as specific as I'm going to be.

But sure, the water thing is concerning. I'll have to check into that.

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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As soon as everyone on the forum moves away from Western Washington/Oregon we will most likely have a January 1950 repeat! 
 

A co-workers friend that bought a place in a development in Arlington on 1acre lots back in 2009 for $380k just sold it after being on the market for 1 day for $970k. They apparently just paid cash on a place somewhere in eastern Wa on 50 acres. Now is definitely the time to make a move if you have the desire. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Speaking of deserts... it sure looks awesome in Palm Springs next week.   Glad we missed the "cold" weather down there this week!   And we won't be missing any wintry events at home during this trip.    

Screenshot_20220203-112530_Google.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

As soon as everyone on the forum moves away from Western Washington/Oregon we will most likely have a January 1950 repeat! 
 

A co-workers friend that bought a place in a development in Arlington on 1acre lots back in 2009 for $380k just sold it after being on the market for 1 day for $970k. They apparently just paid cash on a place somewhere in eastern Wa on 50 acres. Now is definitely the time to make a move if you have the desire. 

Yea the market is crazy. We had to Pay 80k over asking, waived the appraisal and waived the inspection. The house was on the market for 12 hours and had 10 offers 

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea the market is crazy. We had to Pay 80k over asking, waived the appraisal and waived the inspection. The house was on the market for 12 hours and had 10 offers 

Unbelievable.     

Absolutely crazy.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

If you want still (relatively) affordable space, property, lack of people and consistent winter snow, Rural New England is your choice. (VT, NH, ME)  NH is also tax free (income except capital gains, also no sales tax).  I'm already targeting my return.  Lived in the Conway area of NH from 2000-2004 and would love to return.

Nor'eastas, Arctic Cold, all the annual winter fun

 

How's the Mt Biking in that area? 

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27 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Like I said, some thing are more important than the climate. That's as specific as I'm going to be.

But sure, the water thing is concerning. I'll have to check into that.

I feel that, believe me. That's why I didn't move to SoCal where some family is a decade ago; I choose the PNW for some very concrete reasons. If I wasn't living here, I wouldn't be living in the US, full stop. I threw out the info about the WA homebuyers program because it seems like most people don't know about it. For folks who can't get a VA loan, this is a good option. If somewhere else works for you, make it happen and best of luck 😃

But yeah, if you are going to warmer places, make sure you check out the water situation. Have friends in Cape Town, and listing to them talk about all the hassles of having to rely on private water trucks coming once a week because the city ran out of water sucks... and they are rich enough to be able to buy their way out of most of the issue.  

 

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2 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

I feel that, believe me. That's why I didn't move to SoCal where some family is a decade ago; I choose the PNW for some very concrete reasons. If I wasn't living here, I wouldn't be living in the US, full stop. I threw out the info about the WA homebuyers program because it seems like most people don't know about it. For folks who can't get a VA loan, this is a good option. If somewhere else works for you, make it happen and best of luck 😃

But yeah, if you are going to warmer places, make sure you check out the water situation. Have friends in Cape Town, and listing to them talk about all the hassles of having to rely on private water trucks coming once a week because the city ran out of water sucks... and they are rich enough to be able to buy their way out of most of the issue.  

 

Thanks for the info!

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of deserts... it sure looks awesome in Palm Springs next week.   Glad we missed the "cold" weather down there this week!   And we won't be missing any wintry events at home during this trip.    

Screenshot_20220203-112530_Google.jpg

Looks perfect! I really want to go back to Cabo soon. Wish I was going next week (though I would like upper 70’s like it was every single day while we were there 2yrs ago) 

79668552-A38B-4F40-8C50-55B1CED80A64.png

EA28E01D-3DBF-4C50-89D0-772EB45BA62D.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Too early to tell but we’re kinda following the script of the last few late winter/early springs in terms of dryness…just no snow this time for now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

45 at home after a low of 41…just 0.10” this morning. 

Almost an inch of rain here since yesterday... mostly in the form of heavy drizzle.    Sopping wet out there for sure.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

February could be one of the most boring in years...

I was hoping if we didn’t manage any snow it’d atleast be wet but doesn’t look like it. We were probably due for an uneventful February anyways…but still time for something to happen later this month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost an inch of rain here since yesterday... mostly in the form of heavy drizzle.    Sopping wet out there for sure.  

I think we need to trade locations. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think we need to trade locations. 

I didn't really mind it... there is a pretty nice weekend ahead and then we leave on Monday.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I do want to live here in western WA…but there’s basically no chance of buying a house around here. Just too expensive. The more I think about it the more I want to move to a state where it’s not so d*mn expensive. Can’t imagine it’ll get any better in the next 10 years and I don’t want to be a renter my whole life. I know how some of y’all feel about texas…but my friends down there are getting a pretty decent snow right now so it might not be the worst place to go in terms of climo. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do want to live here in western WA…but there’s basically no chance of buying a house around here. Just too expensive. The more I think about it the more I want to move to a state where it’s not so d*mn expensive. Can’t imagine it’ll get any better in the next 10 years and I don’t want to be a renter my whole life. I know how some of y’all feel about texas…but my friends down there are getting a pretty decent snow right now so it might not be the worst place to go in terms of climo. 

Parts of Texas get regular Snowfall, they just are the, erm, less desirable places. Amarillo gets 17" a year!

I was talking to a friend last night who wants to end up in the DFW area.

It's even cheaper down there than Phoenix is.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do want to live here in western WA…but there’s basically no chance of buying a house around here. Just too expensive. The more I think about it the more I want to move to a state where it’s not so d*mn expensive. Can’t imagine it’ll get any better in the next 10 years and I don’t want to be a renter my whole life. I know how some of y’all feel about texas…but my friends down there are getting a pretty decent snow right now so it might not be the worst place to go in terms of climo. 

Just watched some news coverage out of the Dallas area... 22 degrees with snow covered freeways in the middle of the day.

 

tx snow.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I will say, February 2011 did not get good until late in the month. IIRC around President's Day, so still a lot of time for us to track more towards that outcome. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

Parts of Texas get regular Snowfall, they just are the, erm, less desirable places. Amarillo gets 17" a year!

I was talking to a friend last night who wants to end up in the DFW area.

It's even cheaper down there than Phoenix is.

Yeah, either way I kind of want to get out of Tacoma area first. North side is too crowded and expensive…south side has such a major crime element. Even north Tacoma has started to have some crime issues. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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55 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

How's the Mt Biking in that area? 

really good actually, most ski areas have summer programs and then there are other trails in most places as well.  been awhile since I lived there (2004) so I'd imagine it's similar or better than it was.  

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, February 2011 did not get good until late in the month. IIRC around President's Day, so still a lot of time for us to track more towards that outcome. 

Yeah I think it was the 22nd-26th. So if we followed that timeline…nothing would be showing up on the models for another 7-10 days. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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As for the home thing. It's really tough. The market got really hot in the mid-2000s, and then crashed with the Great Recession. With COVID we have seen the market continue to heat up. Inventory is extremely low, if we don't see inventory increase dramatically prices will just continue to go higher as supply stays tight. Part of the problem is people are just holding now, no one wants to sell unless they are moving out of state because it's so hard to buy. There is really no such thing as a "starter home" anymore it seems. I read California has a deficit of about 2.3 million single family homes. There is no chance that gets made up, I'm sure Oregon and Washington have a large deficit of homes needed to meet demand as well. Part of the problem, and I'll try not to make this too political, is that it is extremely difficult to get large housing tracts approved on the West Coast (And when new construction does get approved regulation and permitting can add 75-100K to the cost of a single family home in California.). One of the reasons housing is less expensive in places like Texas and Oklahoma is because there is almost no regulation around building, supply is constantly increasing, and families frequently upgrade, so there are always a lot of homes on the market. Also out there you see, low, medium, and high end construction. In the PNW almost all new construction is on the higher end of the market because it's so limited the builders are going to go where the profit is. I don't see the situation getting any better any time soon. Even if prices dropped 10-20% at some point they would still be extremely high. I worry about it because at some point if only high income earners can attain home ownership, then I think we could see not only a society where we do not value private property, but where private property owners are resented and eventually are targeted politically or through ever increasing tax burdens. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As for the home thing. It's really tough. The market got really hot in the mid-2000s, and then crashed with the Great Recession. With COVID we have seen the market continue to heat up. Inventory is extremely low, if we don't see inventory increase dramatically prices will just continue to go higher as supply stays tight. Part of the problem is people are just holding now, no one wants to sell unless they are moving out of state because it's so hard to buy. There is really no such thing as a "starter home" anymore it seems. I read California has a deficit of about 2.3 million single family homes. There is no chance that gets made up, I'm sure Oregon and Washington have a large deficit of homes needed to meet demand as well. Part of the problem, and I'll try not to make this too political, is that it is extremely difficult to get large housing tracts approved on the West Coast (And when new construction does get approved regulation and permitting can add 75-100K to the cost of a single family home in California.). One of the reasons housing is less expensive in places like Texas and Oklahoma is because there is almost no regulation around building, supply is constantly increasing, and families frequently upgrade, so there are always a lot of homes on the market. Also out there you see, low, medium, and high end construction. In the PNW almost all new construction is on the higher end of the market because it's so limited the builders are going to go where the profit is. I don't see the situation getting any better any time soon. Even if prices dropped 10-20% at some point they would still be extremely high. I worry about it because at some point if only high income earners can attain home ownership, then I think we could see not only a society where we do not value private property, but where private property owners are resented and eventually are targeted politically or through ever increasing tax burdens. 

E WA is even experiencing this too now.  New homes are being slapped up on postage stamp sized lots.  like .1 acre in my town.  houses are like 6' a part, might as well be detached townhouses if you will.  who wants to pay $700K for something like that?  and they are slapping them up anywhere they can over here so the demand is certainly there.

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As for the home thing. It's really tough. The market got really hot in the mid-2000s, and then crashed with the Great Recession. With COVID we have seen the market continue to heat up. Inventory is extremely low, if we don't see inventory increase dramatically prices will just continue to go higher as supply stays tight. Part of the problem is people are just holding now, no one wants to sell unless they are moving out of state because it's so hard to buy. There is really no such thing as a "starter home" anymore it seems. I read California has a deficit of about 2.3 million single family homes. There is no chance that gets made up, I'm sure Oregon and Washington have a large deficit of homes needed to meet demand as well. Part of the problem, and I'll try not to make this too political, is that it is extremely difficult to get large housing tracts approved on the West Coast (And when new construction does get approved regulation and permitting can add 75-100K to the cost of a single family home in California.). One of the reasons housing is less expensive in places like Texas and Oklahoma is because there is almost no regulation around building, supply is constantly increasing, and families frequently upgrade, so there are always a lot of homes on the market. Also out there you see, low, medium, and high end construction. In the PNW almost all new construction is on the higher end of the market because it's so limited the builders are going to go where the profit is. I don't see the situation getting any better any time soon. Even if prices dropped 10-20% at some point they would still be extremely high. I worry about it because at some point if only high income earners can attain home ownership, then I think we could see not only a society where we do not value private property, but where private property owners are resented and eventually are targeted politically or through ever increasing tax burdens. 

This combined with suppressed interest rates and stimulus is driving home prices. We are definitely headed into scary uncharted territory with inflation. Not sure our current financial system will survive. 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone seems to be moving to hotter summer climates.    😁

A lot of masochists on this forum.

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

don't get me wrong I love the geography of the PNW.  Unique.

It really is. Nothing like it anywhere else in the US. Only place that comes close is Maine and NH/VT.

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I didn't really mind it... there is a pretty nice weekend ahead and then we leave on Monday.   👍

Hawaii again?

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47 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

E WA is even experiencing this too now.  New homes are being slapped up on postage stamp sized lots.  like .1 acre in my town.  houses are like 6' a part, might as well be detached townhouses if you will.  who wants to pay $700K for something like that?  and they are slapping them up anywhere they can over here so the demand is certainly there.

I know Liberty Lake and Airway Heights have experienced a lot of growth. Went up there to do some consulting work in November 2019 and it seemed like everyone we were working with was getting a place out in either one of those directions. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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