PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[FroYoBro]

Some of the thickest fog of the winter at my spot this morning. Also 31 degrees so everything is nice and frosty. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like most of the valley is socked in this morning. 
 

Should we even mention the CFS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The February 6, 2017 event was more of a rain event down here. We did get about 2" of snow at the end, but it was mostly just extremely cold heavy rain. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like most of the valley is socked in this morning. 
 

Should we even mention the CFS?

No point really since you canceled winter below 1000’ :(

[TacomaWaWx]

38 with fog after a low of 37. Last nights euro was pretty boring…gfs slightly more interesting within 10 days but that’s really not saying much. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No point really since you canceled winter below 1000’

Well it will be tough to get snow below there, but for folks above that line of demarcation, things may once again improve?

[Gummy]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

38 with fog after a low of 37. Last nights euro was pretty boring…gfs slightly more interesting within 10 days but that’s really not saying much. 

Yea, the 2nd half of winter is on life support. Those of us living near the Puget Sound or the valley floor are not going to get 5" of snow in March or early April.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Yea, the 2nd half of winter is on life support. Those of us living near the Puget Sound or the valley floor are not going to get 5" of snow in March or early April.

Well like I said yesterday though it’s only February 6th. We can’t see anything in the second half of February or into March at this point. We probably thought winter was dead at this point in 2011,2018,2019 and 2020. Not saying it will happen just that we don’t know. First half of February will certainly end up being one of the most dull I can remember though. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Fog coverage is pretty minimal over Seattle... should clear up there.

Wow, I need that!

 

[TT-SEA]

Good example of retrogression on the 12Z GFS... each trough digs down farther west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice trough in the long range. 

[MossMan]

It’s coming. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice blanket of fog outside

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We didn't have that snow event down here... we were done with snow at this point in 1991.      It did go from 62 on 2/28 to 47 on 3/1 with 1.32 inches of rain though.     

BC got clipped by an arctic airmass as the ridge retrograded and a bitter airmass dropped into the Canadian Prairies. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

BC got clipped by an arctic airmass as the ridge retrograded and a bitter airmass dropped into the Canadian Prairies. 

Yeah, that outflow event died at the Chuckanuts. BLI did have a rare March subfreezing high with it though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might have a decent trough around Valentine's Day, but the real pattern change probably won't occur until around the 20th. IMO. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might have a decent trough around Valentine's Day, but the real pattern change probably won't occur until around the 20th. IMO. 

Cancel pattern or uncancel pattern as of the 20th?

Asking 4 a friend.

[RentonHill]

5 year ago today was Parker’s first big snow with us

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Cancel pattern or uncancel pattern as of the 20th?

Asking 4 a friend.

Winter is canceled below 1000', it will not be uncanceled. It can snow in the spring, like on 4/20/08, or 3/14/20. I supposed a 3/21-22/2012 event would require uncanceling. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter is canceled below 1000', it will not be uncanceled. It can snow in the spring, like on 4/20/08, or 3/14/20. I supposed a 3/21-22/2012 event would require uncanceling. 

I’m not canceling sh*t until this winter removes itself from Spotify.

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter is canceled below 1000', it will not be uncanceled. It can snow in the spring, like on 4/20/08, or 3/14/20. I supposed a 3/21-22/2012 event would require uncanceling. 

Only for PDX south. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not canceling sh*t until this winter removes itself from Spotify.

It's going over to Rumble and Substack.

[MossMan]

The dogs know it’s important to have a little sun in your life. Nice day incoming!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Approaching 50 already, looks like the valley is still socked in. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is much less emphatic with retrogression compared to the operational run.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS is much less emphatic with retrogression compared to the operational run.   

A lot of spread in the ensembles. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Wow, I need that!

 

I like the fog picture more. 

[MossMan]

First time out on the deck sitting in a chair with a short sleeve shirt just soaking up the sun since October. Man it feels good! Usually when I do this in the winter it snows two weeks later…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ducks are starting to lay again... Going to be up to my eyeballs in eggs now. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Overall hasn't been a bad winter over at my new place. I think locals actually measure our seasons by whether or not Ashland lost power (that hasn't happened since last summer's t'storms). That ice/snow a couple days ago wasn't as good as forecast. 

Still just enough snow that it's close to the areas annual average, but no really big storms at once.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Overall hasn't been a bad winter over at my new place. I think locals actually measure our seasons by whether or not Ashland lost power (that hasn't happened since last summer's t'storms). That ice/snow a couple days ago wasn't as good as forecast. 

Still just enough snow that it's close to the areas annual average, but no really big storms at once.

That's such a nice area though. It is so green in the summer. Humid as heck, but nice. You should go down to Carter Caves and Greenbo Lake in the summer. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like something might be crystalizing for later in the month.  The 12z GFS operational, EPS, and EPS control look very promising for something to come together in the 15th to 20th period.  We'll see if it holds.  Looks like the 1970-71 analog may have carried a lot of weight this winter if we get a significant late cold wave.  The late December / early Jan cold period was actually better than 1970-71, but the general theme was pretty similar.

From a Nina climo standpoint the trough should most certainly shift back into the NW fairly soon.  We obviously still have the January monkey on our backs in spite of this winter being a little bit better than recent (much better east of the Cascades in WA).  For some reason the trough always wants to gravitate to the Eastern US for that month as of late.  As Phil has mentioned, though, they have not been able to buy a cold December back there while we have had a bunch this century.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really really good CFS run unfolding right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Baker City out in NE Oregon has a great climate. They pulled off a 24/1 day yesterday. They are running a -14.7 departure through the first 5 days of the month. Just cold air stuck in the Baker Valley. 

[FroYoBro]

All sun now and it should be a very nice afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This CFS run is insane. Kind of a February 2011/March 2012 hybrid. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This CFS run is insane. Kind of a February 2011/March 2012 hybrid. 

Don’t worry the next run will be a February/March 2015 hybrid. 

[TacomaWaWx]

No sunshine here yet 42 degrees. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 30 this morning had some fog earlier sunny now and 45

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t worry the next run will be a February/March 2015 hybrid. 

It's actually been really good for several days now.