PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At 1pm it is 68 at North Bend in Coos County, 25 at Baker City. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Well like I said yesterday though it’s only February 6th. We can’t see anything in the second half of February or into March at this point. We probably thought winter was dead at this point in 2011,2018,2019 and 2020. Not saying it will happen just that we don’t know. First half of February will certainly end up being one of the most dull I can remember though. 

Feb 2020 will be a hard one to beat for dullness. Snow was N/A that whole month in Klamath Falls. 

I doubt it will be that bad. 

[Timmy Supercell]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Don’t worry the next run will be a February/March 2015 hybrid. 

At least there's already a difference from that year. The first 3 consecutive months in 2015 were all top tier torches.

[snow_wizard]

One definite piece of good news is the MJO is in Nina friendly territory right now and the CFS is rock solid on cold ENSO continuing right through the summer.  As Phil has said, this is probably our best shot at a legit cold year in quite some time if we avoid a Nino.

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No sunshine here yet 42 degrees. 

Here it was clear all night and then got foggy for a few hours right after sunrise.  Currently 44 and sunny after a low of 30.  Currently 62 at the fire training academy.  I'm still betting this warm ridging will give way to something much colder later on.  We have just had too many days with warm 850s to fit the context of this year.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This CFS run is insane. Kind of a February 2011/March 2012 hybrid. 

In that case, it’s over. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One definite piece of good news is the MJO is in Nina friendly territory right now and the CFS is rock solid on cold ENSO continuing right through the summer.  As Phil has said, this is probably our best shot at a legit cold year in quite some time if we avoid a Nino.

True. I’m skeptical we hold -ENSO, though. 

[Hawksfan2008]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

In that case, it’s over. 

We ll see. It hasn’t done to poorly. 

[High Desert Mat?]

What I’m really missing is split flow. It’s been awhile since we’ve had that consistently. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

65 at Redmond, OR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

What I’m really missing is split flow. It’s been awhile since we’ve had that consistently. 

Yeah, if only we had that! There is always next winter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is a let down though. 

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm.  The ECMWF ENSO forecast is a notch cooler than the one released on Jan 1.  It's going for warmish / neutral by late summer.  Historically that's an ENSO state that treats us well.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is a let down though. 

I actually like it the believable range.  Amplification is maintained and the pattern shifts westward.  Good enough for now.

[Omegaraptor]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is a let down though. 

That front on Valentine’s Day that ensembles want to promise is pretty much completely gone on this run.

Dry forever

[MossMan]

Late February 2011 was sure top tier! 
My area ended up with around 18” or so of snow if I remember correctly. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

51 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

That front on Valentine’s Day that ensembles want to promise is pretty much completely gone on this run.

Dry forever

Goose egg.

 

[TonyP]

Pretty nice sunset action over the UW T campus tonight 

[T-Town]

Another good one tonight. 

[TacomaWaWx]

57 minutes ago, TonyP said:

Pretty nice sunset action over the UW T campus tonight 

Shame that such a beautiful city has gotten so unbelievably crime ridden. 

[The Blob]

Nice drive to work this evening. Got down to 31 IMBY this morning.

[T-Town]

55 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Shame that such a beautiful city has gotten so unbelievably crime ridden. 

Having grown up in Tacoma in the 1970s, I can assure you things have been worse. I found this site a few years ago and the photos definitely track with my memories from that time. 
 

http://www.cysewski.com/seattleweb/tacoma/

[Blizzard777]

Dang!   I was in VR world….but their was a mighty Dust Devil making a mess of things! 

2 hours ago, TonyP said:

Pretty nice sunset action over the UW T campus tonight 

 

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Another good one tonight. 

 

[Blizzard777]

Nest cam….reliving the moment…..pretty cool sunset 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Having grown up in Tacoma in the 1970s, I can assure you things have been worse. I found this site a few years ago and the photos definitely track with my memories from that time. 
 

http://www.cysewski.com/seattleweb/tacoma/

Right now it’s probably about as bad as it’s ever been. Shootings and homicides are through the roof along with theft and other violent crimes. Honestly don’t even want to live here anymore. On Friday, my brothers car was stolen and the police are so swarmed with other carjackings, burglaries and shootings there’s not much they can do. We’ve had no luck tracking it down. Then dealing with my crazy neighbor constantly that they won’t do anything about is so frustrating. I was angry about how bad it’s getting before but this is just ridiculous. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F and beautiful stars in downtown Springfield.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like some fun model riding coming up.

I could envision a lot of cold mins even in the near term with what's being shown with a much colder overall setup by mid month.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Right now it’s probably about as bad as it’s ever been. Shootings and homicides are through the roof along with theft and other violent crimes. Honestly don’t even want to live here anymore. On Friday, my brothers car was stolen and the police are so swarmed with other carjackings, burglaries and shootings there’s not much they can do. We’ve had no luck tracking it down. Then dealing with my crazy neighbor constantly that they won’t do anything about is so frustrating. I was angry about how bad it’s getting before but this is just ridiculous. 

Probably even a better reason than the weather to move.

[snow_wizard]

Winthrop had an incredible 25/9 day with sunshine today.  Obviously not too late in the season for inversions over there.

Even over here the models look pretty inversionary later in the week, but nothing like that of course.

[snow_wizard]

This GFS shows three or four shots of chilly continental air invading over the next two weeks with the one at the end of the run being the best.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Right now it’s probably about as bad as it’s ever been. Shootings and homicides are through the roof along with theft and other violent crimes. Honestly don’t even want to live here anymore. On Friday, my brothers car was stolen and the police are so swarmed with other carjackings, burglaries and shootings there’s not much they can do. We’ve had no luck tracking it down. Then dealing with my crazy neighbor constantly that they won’t do anything about is so frustrating. I was angry about how bad it’s getting before but this is just ridiculous. 

What part of the city are u in?

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

Late February 2011 was sure top tier! 
My area ended up with around 18” or so of snow if I remember correctly. 

Not to mention years like 1962 and 1971.  Even 2018 was pretty respectable the last half of Feb.  There are also many years that we've gotten nailed in early March.  Still lots of time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS was decent in the long range. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GEM is on board for extreme retrograding GOA blocking for week two.

[NWbyNW]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

 

http://www.cysewski.com/seattleweb/tacoma/

Great website.  I've already spent a half an hour going through the photos and examining some of the Alaska photos from the 70s as well!  Very awesome stuff! 

[RentonHill]

Just a little better on the CMCE

[TT-SEA]

GEFS just won't get on board.   Actually looks like it went a little the other way on the 00Z run.   Better to have the EPS... but it is sort of strange.    The GEFS is usually pretty friendly.   

Matt... feeling anything yet?  

[snow_wizard]

Pleasantly surprised to see it down to 33 already tonight.  I expect the average min this month will be pretty decent.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if Jim is on board?