PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[BLI snowman]

37 minutes ago, iFred said:

Kind of the reason why I hate the whole "The sun angles are too high on February 1st!" from anyone in the Pacific Northwest. We're not working against the sun so much as we are working with nothing blocking out east or driving a ridge out in the Pacific. We've had some pretty decent low land March events in our past and as climate change still keeps rolling on, we'll probably see more Late-Jan to March events.

One of the best snowstorms I experienced were the three weeks of Nor'easters in Mid-to-Late March where we had highs in the upper 20s and heavy snow while the sun as at 50º degrees.

Definitely. Birmingham, AL at 33N got down to 2 degrees on March 14, 1993. 

With the right ingredients, there's no reason why we couldn't see significant cold/snow in later Feb/March at our latitude. It's just that dynamic blocking patterns that strongly advect low level cold air into the western lowlands tend to be fewer and further between by then. They're more common in the Eastern U.S. obviously and thus you can see places much further south than us still seeing some midwinter-esque cold air advection even at the tail end of the season.

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Phil said:

Replace the palm trees with a mix of conifers and hardwoods. Then it’s ok.

We are surrounded by conifers at home.  Are we allowed to vacation some place different?   Variety is nice.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just saw someone mowing their lawn. It’s over. Moving on to spring. 

I have been tractor shopping over the last week or so, if I end up with one I am planning lots of property projects and could get started very soon if this weather keeps up! 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are surrounded by conifers at home.  Are we allowed to vacation some place different?   Variety is nice.

You are only allowed to vacation at Baffin Island! 
Or Hawaii since that is the only time it snows here when you are gone. 

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just saw someone mowing their lawn. It’s over. Moving on to spring. 

I did a clean up pass over the weekend as we’ve had some areas SPRING back to life.

But it can snow in May.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z gonna try...

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z gonna try...

It needs to try harder. 

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I mean I'm already planning to plant citrus and a couple cactuses.  Why not?

Found your palm trees and cactus 

[Deweydog]

NWS doesn’t seem quite ready to bite on the 18z.

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Found your palm trees and cactus 

no citrus?

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

NWS doesn’t seem quite ready to bite on the 18z.

I mean they even know who Druncle is

[Phishy Wx]

Incoming Phil!!

 

 

[RentonHill]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

NWS doesn’t seem quite ready to bite on the 18z.

you are like some random comment generator powered by a AI thats been forced to read every post on this forum with the snarkyness turned up to 11 etc etc. Anyways good bot here's a dog pic for your reward

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

you are like some random comment generator powered by a AI thats been forced to read every post on this forum with the snarkyness turned up to 11 etc etc. Anyways good bot here's a dog pic for your reward

Water is also quite wet after being melted in the high February sun.

[The Blob]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

no citrus?

They were with the indoor plants.

[RentonHill]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Water is also quite wet after being melted in the high February sun.

No way the NWS ignores this 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

No way the NWS ignores this 

A pattern change is a 

or perhaps

[AlTahoe]

Mid 80's for Redding? Why not. 

Our 6' snowpack on Jan 1st is down to dirt in open exposed areas already. Even with the snowiest Dec ever recorded I am giving this winter a D - as of now. Need a miracle March to save us. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Incoming Phil!!

 

 

The fire part is probably accurate.

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Mid 80's for Redding? Why not. 

Our 6' snowpack on Jan 1st is down to dirt in open exposed areas already. Even with the snowiest Dec ever recorded I am giving this winter a D - as of now. Need a miracle March to save us. 

Well, the non-Nino years on that list all turned things around at least a little bit pattern wise.

1971, 1996, 2006, and 2018 all had big West Coast troughing by the end of February. And 1961 and 1967 waited a bit longer but both had pretty cool/wet March and Aprils.

[Tyler Mode]

I had a great hike up through the fog at Triple Falls.  It was my first time up since before the Eagle Creek Fire.  Obviously huge changes, but the light was epic today.  Crappy cell phone pics attached...

[Cascadia_Wx]

46/34 day today foggy inversion held on through the middle of the afternoon and it stayed cooler than anticipated 

[awright-31]

02-07-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 52* at 1:01 pm
Low temp - 33* at 12:15 am

New precip - 0"
February precip to date- 0.23"
We have recieved 4% of our normal February precip 25% of the way through the month.

New snow - 0"
Winter 21-22 Snow to Date - 10.9"

[MossMan]

Wow what an exciting weather day!!!! 
First I woke up to a winter wonderland of drizzle which amounted to .01”!!!! 
AND THEN we had dribbles this evening amounting to another .01” of rainfall!! 
WOW!!!! That blows 12/26/21 and 12/30/21 out of the water on the excitement scale!!!!!!!

[MossMan]

Funny that I was just talking about my moms old place right on Moses Lake a few days ago here on the forum…It just went on the market again if anyone is interested! Lots of fun memories there! 
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Moses-Lake/5696-Panorama-Dr-NE-98837/home/16817868?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet

[Gradient Keeper]

How's the EPS looking? Do we all have our forks out? They be lookin' shiny.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS 500mb (Day 1-16)

850mb Temps (Day 1-16)

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

Incredible cold for northern Alaska, northern arctic coast, Yukon coast, northern Northwest Territories

[Meatyorologist]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Got a feeling this thing is coming back. God. I've already taken a long-ish break from caring about interesting weather but maybe I'll have to wait for a while longer. It's not even really torching.... It's just dry and mild, constantly. I'm honestly growing a bit antsy for some actual weather. That trough next Monday/Tuesday looks nice but it's severely intruded by that broad anticyclone which has dominated the region since early January.

What do we have to do to have, you know, winter?

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Incredible cold for northern Alaska, northern arctic coast, Yukon coast, northern Northwest Territories

That is some throwback stuff. Big league cold. Strong SPV doing numbers.

[Cloud]

13 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Mid 80's for Redding? Why not. 

Our 6' snowpack on Jan 1st is down to dirt in open exposed areas already. Even with the snowiest Dec ever recorded I am giving this winter a D - as of now. Need a miracle March to save us. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/02/08/excessive-heat-california-los-angeles/

It's ***** Feb. 9th for FFS... Christ. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

How's the EPS looking? Do we all have our forks out? They be lookin' shiny.

Here is the 00Z run from last night...

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 00Z run from last night...

Fork it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Why does our weather always suck?

[BLI snowman]

We were due for a poo February.

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We were due for a poo February.

That reminds me...

[Blizzard777]

I suppose I’m going to make this and official work in the yard day  

39* 

[AlTahoe]

Phil any thoughts on this? 

Our really good local Sierra weather guy mammothweather.com thinks end of Feb things turn stormy for us again

 

The best news coming out of the CPC discussion yesterday is that; MJO is expected to “Constructively Interfere with the La Nina Base State toward the end of February”!!

Note: This is what happened in early December.

Longer Range:

Since the latter part of January I have been bullish about a flip in the Hemispheric Pattern due to the emergence of MJO over the Indian Ocean (IO)  Nothing has changed in my thinking. Here is a possible scenario;

1. A dry warm week this week
2. A chilly inside slider around the 15th that will bring wind, cooling and maybe some light snow.
3. 3rd week of February will be the transition week with strong tropical forcing developing over the (IO) and MJO along with ERW cranking up.   Phase 2 into Phase 3. of the RMM.
4. Long wave trough to carve out over the eastern pacific between the end of the 3rd week of February and end of the month.  Then stormy WX , developing 4th week of February into March.
5. See what appears to be twin anticyclones aloft (Upper Divergence) on each side of EQ moving toward favored Phase 3 last week of the month.

 

[jakerepp]

Anyone got anything cool going on soon?

Excited for Inslee's press conference at 2:00 today? What will he do? Announce mask mandate lifted on February 29th?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Anyone got anything cool going on soon?

Excited for Inslee's press conference at 2:00 today? What will he do? Announce mask mandate lifted on February 29th?

New stay-at-home order through the end of 2024.   Can never be too safe.