PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't something similar happen in February 2021?

Yeah, but not as extreme.

Feb 1899 is still the big kahuna.

[Phil]

And now for something more depressing.

@hawkstwelve Might’ve made the right call.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

And now for something more depressing.

@hawkstwelve Might’ve made the right call.

Yes... because a change in a couple days with 1+ inch of snow is the reason to move to South Dakota or NE New Mexico.  

[BLI snowman]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

And now for something more depressing.

@hawkstwelve Might’ve made the right call.

Curious what data trendline that is using.

Starting from 1948-49 could probably be a little misleading since that was an extremely snowy and anomalous winter throughout the West.

[ShawniganLake]

Just slight differences in the long range GEFS tonight 

0z

18z

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS isn't good, but even it want to bring back that active pattern towards the end as the offshore ridge retrogrades west and amplifies. If there were any modern year to feature a subfreezing high in March, this one might do it.

[MossMan]

.01” on the day! 

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.01” on the day! 

Snow, I assume

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.01” on the day! 

That 0.01” more than I got here. 

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Just slight differences in the long range GEFS tonight 

0z

18z

00Z ECMWF shows some lowland by Sunday too.

[GHweatherChris]

5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What did everyone get their significant other for VD?

VD

[Cascadia_Wx]

Decent

[GHweatherChris]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Decent

Decent? How?

[Phil]

3 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Curious what data trendline that is using.

Starting from 1948-49 could probably be a little misleading since that was an extremely snowy and anomalous winter throughout the West.

Bottom right corner. It’s a linear regression, one year shouldn’t be an issue. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39F and mostly cloudy.

[Phil]

Latest EPS weeklies are chilly but very dry for the West Coast.

Certainly no indication of a sustained zonal/NW flow pattern through at least late March.

[Dan the Weatherman]

 Some anomalous pattern or feature must be in play that is keeping this ridge from budging. This is an awfully long time for the ridge to remain in the same location during the heart of winter! These type of stuck patterns have become much more consistent during this last decade, and I still believe that something changed or flipped around 2012 or so that has led to this type of pattern persistence.

[AlTahoe]

We have recorded our first moisture since late Dec! Currently sitting at 1" of snow.

Bay Area and Central valley are missing out and the gfs shows no precip for them through the 15 day run. They are going to crush their longest dry streaks by a huge margin. Pretty incredible 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Decent? How?

Consistent troughing with some precip chances 

[jakerepp]

6 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

VD

Viagra D***?

[Phishy Wx]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

I can’t find the study they’re referencing, but I’m already suspicious of the methods.

Accurate hydroclimate proxy records for the SW US provide details on a decadal resolution at best, yet this is paraphrased as if we’re comparing individual years thousands of years apart, which would be impossible.

And there was no megadrought in the West during the 1500s, at least by the established late Holocene standards, so I’m not sure where that idea is coming from.

The last true megadrought occurred during the Medieval Years, peaking from 950-1250AD. It was exceptional enough that the driest years in the 21st century are comparable to the 30 year average during the last megadrought. It was much more persistent.

And even that was far from the “worst” megadrought the West has experienced in the Holocene.

In other words, there is a LOT of room for the ongoing dry period to get worse.

tree rings seem to be the primary source of data based on the article.  pretty extensive climate history in Redwood and Sequoia forests.  Also in some high altitude Bristlecone Pine forests 

[TT-SEA]

Its currently not like 2019... but also not 2015.    

This popped up in FB this morning from 2/15/2015.    

[The Blob]

12 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What did everyone get their significant other for VD?

Nothing I forgot to get something. But I did order dinner so I guess that counts.

[Phishy Wx]

12 hours ago, Deweydog said:

What did everyone get their significant other for VD?

A steak dinner 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... because a change in a couple days with 1+ inch of snow is the reason to move to South Dakota or NE New Mexico.  

Red River NM is looking better everyday!

[Skagit Weather]

The mountains continue to fall further behind.

CLIMATOLOGICAL SNOWDEPTH INFORMATION
NORTHWEST AVALANCHE CENTER SEATTLE WASHINGTON
DAY  15  MONTH  2  YEAR  2022 

            CURRENT  CLIMATE  PER CENT   LAST  THRU 2021  THRU 2021
            DEPTH    AVERAGE  OF NORMAL  YEAR  MAX/YEAR   MIN/YEAR

HURRICANE    45       84       54         99   198/1999     4/2015
MT BAKER    100      137       73        172   244/1999    22/2015
STEVENS      74       92       80        113   166/1956    16/1977
SNOQUALMIE   63       84       75        116   168/1949     4/1977
STAMPEDE    -99       89      -99         96   202/1949     0/1977
MISSION      21       41       51         46    71/1999     9/2015
CRYSTAL      53       61       87         76   117/1999     0/1977
PARADISE    109      142       77        159   264/1972    24/1977
WHITE PASS   43       54       80         83   100/1999     0/2015
TIMBERLINE  109      124       88        139   230/2002     8/1977
MEADOWS      86      103       83        120   187/1974     4/1977

Fortunately the snow water equivalent isn't as bad because the snowpack is denser than usual, but still need some more snow soon to slow the melt.

[Phishy Wx]

oof

 

 

[BLI snowman]

I don't hate the 12z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

oof

 

 

I wish I worked in a laboratory making snow. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I don't hate the 12z.

Agreed nice looking run good valley rains and mountain snows, even down into parts of Cali.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, 12z isn't awful. At face value its good for a couple minor snowfalls here, definitely cold enough next Sunday and with the next trough, but these things have been getting watered down a little recently. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌

Congrats!

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌

Congratulations!  

So where is this house located again?

That is really impressive to buy such a nice house at your age in this crazy market.   You will look back and be so happy you were able to jump into the market so early in life.    

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Congrats!

 

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Congratulations!  

So where is this house located again?

Thanks guys! I’ll live on the west hill between Federal Way and Kent. I live down the block from Star Lake. It’s not as far north as I wanted, but it’s a good start. Elevation is around 400ft so not bad. I’m just transitioning from one snowhole to another

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 37F and have had 0.24" this month so far. A February topic with only 31 pages halfway thru the month is pretty indicative of how things have been of late. I've been so focused on college basketball right now that I hadn't realized just how boring conditions have been for pretty much all of us here in the PNW.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 37F and have had 0.24" this month so far. A February topic with only 31 pages halfway thru the month is pretty indicative of how things have been of late. I've been so focused on college basketball right now that I hadn't realized just how boring conditions have been for pretty much all of us here in the PNW.

Who’s your team this year to win it all?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 37F and have had 0.24" this month so far. A February topic with only 31 pages halfway thru the month is pretty indicative of how things have been of late. I've been so focused on college basketball right now that I hadn't realized just how boring conditions have been for pretty much all of us here in the PNW.

At least the Ducks won last night. I'm still smarting over that blowout loss to CAL. 

[ShawniganLake]

Looking like some hard freezes next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking like some hard freezes next week

Nice!