PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[TigerWoodsLibido]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Who’s your team this year to win it all?

Arizona

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least the Ducks won last night. I'm still smarting over that blowout loss to CAL. 

Yes, they'll have to win the conference tournament to get into March Madness. At least Vegas should have nice weather when they go outside between the ballgame, the team bus and inevitably down the strip eventually.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro shows highs in the mid 30s for the Portland area a week from today that would be quite the impressive turnaround from the mid to upper 60s last week wouldn’t surprise me to see future runs pull back though 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro shows highs in the mid 30s for the Portland area a week from today that would be quite the impressive turnaround from the mid to upper 60s last week 

I'd imagine that is a little overdone. Their coldest day in February 2018 was 37/23 on the 21st and that was a pretty impressively cold airmass, I believe about -10C. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd imagine that is a little overdone. Their coldest day in February 2018 was 37/23 on the 21st and that was a pretty impressively cold airmass, I believe about -10C. 

PDX actually had a high of 34 on 2/20/2018 during the snowstorm.

That was a great week here. Ironically we did much better here with that than we did with the vaunted February 2019 period.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'd imagine that is a little overdone. Their coldest day in February 2018 was 37/23 on the 21st and that was a pretty impressively cold airmass, I believe about -10C. 

It’s nice to wishcast but they probably won’t get that cold this run shows 850s of -10 to 11 C at face value but this run is probably an outlier 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX actually had a high of 34 on 2/20/2018 during the snowstorm.

That was a great week here. Ironically we did much better here with that than we did with the vaunted February 2019 period.

That was a really decent event didn’t crack freezing here on 2/20/18 then had a low of 19 the next morning with 3-4” snow in the ground 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z euro is also pretty much bone dry from day 6 onward 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That was a really decent event didn’t crack freezing here on 2/20/18 then had a low of 19 the next morning with 3-4” snow in the ground 

Yep, same. Had a 32/27 spread here on the 20th with light snow falling for most of the day. Stuck on the bark/grass basically all day long. It did melt a little off the roads during the mid-day period when the temp was at 32, before it cooled back down in the evening. Finished the day with about 4.5" accumulation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX actually had a high of 34 on 2/20/2018 during the snowstorm.

That was a great week here. Ironically we did much better here with that than we did with the vaunted February 2019 period.

Oh yeah. I missed that. It was a good week. It was colder up here than any stretch in February 2019, We had a 28/16 day and a couple of sub-freezing highs. We had 18" of snow that February too.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not going to miss the swamps snowhole✌

D**n. All we got from our realtor when we bought our first house was a Hallmark card. I don’t even think it was funny or had puppies on it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For NW Oregon over 1000' I would definitely take February 2018 over February 2011. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, same. Had a 32/27 spread here on the 20th with light snow falling for most of the day. Stuck on the bark/grass basically all day long. It did melt a little off the roads during the mid-day period when the temp was at 32, before it cooled back down in the evening. Finished the day with about 4.5" accumulation.

Most amazing aspect of that event is the fact almost all of that snow fell while the PDX radar was down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The March 23-24, 2018 snow event we had was really impressive. Storm total of about 13". 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Most amazing aspect of that event is the fact almost all of that snow fell while the PDX radar was down.

I think that was the winter where it went down about 6 different times.

[kokaneekidz]

46 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking like some hard freezes next week

A truly wonderful change of pace to look forward towards. I am disgusted with the mild moist and boring weather of these past few weeks, except for the couple bright sunny days this prior weekend. I LOVE COLD AND CRISP@!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The March 23-24, 2018 snow event we had was really impressive. Storm total of about 13". 

Then a couple weeks later summer started 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Then a couple weeks later summer started 

Pretty much! But it's why I really can't stick a fork in winter up here until the end of March. Our latest accumulating snow since we've lived here was April 15, 2015, happened during a mild spring which followed a HORRIBLE winter. 2015 was also the last time we did not have accumulating snow in February. 

[Timmy Supercell]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The March 23-24, 2018 snow event we had was really impressive. Storm total of about 13". 

Just a bunch of little snows that winter. I think no events over 3" happened in 17-18 in KF.

[TT-SEA]

EPS has become pretty insistent with another a big ridge parking itself over western North America after the cold shot early next week.    I have to say that even I am surprised by the lack of zonal flow at this point.  

 

[Timmy Supercell]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Then a couple weeks later summer started 

May through early October was several months in a row of smoke. The worst one and not just by a margin.

Couldn't believe how clean the air was in 2019 considering that was just a year later.

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty much! But it's why I really can't stick a fork in winter up here until the end of March. Our latest accumulating snow since we've lived here was April 15, 2015, happened during a mild spring which followed a HORRIBLE winter. 2015 was also the last time we did not have accumulating snow in February. 

I do recall it snowing on Easter 2015.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS has become pretty insistent with another a big ridge parking itself over western North America after the cold shot early next week.    I have to say that even I am surprised by the lack of zonal flow at this point.  

 

Quite a bit of spread among ensemble members. 

[Phishy Wx]

Reckon I should start paying attention to the models again.  was a nice little respite 

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Quite a bit of spread among ensemble members. 

 

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Reckon I should start paying attention to the models again.  was a nice little respite 

ya. things escalated fastily. 

 

[MossMan]

So it’s coming…? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Quite a bit of spread among ensemble members. 

Spaghetti charts show this well in the long range decent agreement on the cold shot though better than expected

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Spaghetti charts show this well in the long range decent agreement on the cold shot though better than expected

Very interesting. Quite a bit chillier than even the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So it’s coming…? 

I bet you see snow at some point between Sunday - Tuesday.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down here I think available moisture could be a big issue, but 4-5 days out it is looking like our best chance for accumulating snow in about 6 weeks. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I bet you see snow at some point between Sunday - Tuesday.  

[Kayla]

I haven't really been following the weather or the models lately so I'm pleasantly surprised to see a nice dumping today. 8" of new snow on the day and it's still snowing.

Looks like another 2-4" tonight/tomorrow as well! Winter is back!

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

tree rings seem to be the primary source of data based on the article.  pretty extensive climate history in Redwood and Sequoia forests.  Also in some high altitude Bristlecone Pine forests 

If it’s tree rings alone that’s insufficient. Temperature and seasonality of rainfall (not just amounts) will affect that. Need more.

5 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Oh, go breathe into a bag, buttercup. Enjoy a rare break from the endless rain while you can. The rains are absolutely bound to return by no later than mid-February March April May Ju... -- ahhhh, never mind.

Would be hilarious if the rains returned in May/June and the summer ended up like 1964 or something. Just to screw with us.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I'd actually be fine with that! It's the idea of another record dry spring leading into yet another brutally hot, dry summer that most concerns me.

Whatever Spring does is all for naught if summer torches hard again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I'd actually be fine with that! It's the idea of another record dry spring leading into yet another brutally hot, dry summer that most concerns me.

Yeah sadly it seems we've seen this movie before. A pitiful spring leading into a blazing summer of crap!

[Meatyorologist]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah sadly it seems we've seen this movie before. A pitiful spring leading into a blazing summer of crap!

Should I buy an AC now before the late June heat wave?

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Whatever Spring does is all for naught if summer torches hard again.

I’d take my chances with higher soil moister and a better mountain snowpack going into summer rather than not having either

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’d take my chances with higher soil moister and a better mountain snowpack going into summer rather than not having either

That only helps for so long. Three months of 80s-100s and high sun angles is going to parch even the wettest of marshes, and rip right through the winter snowpack and eat into long standing glacial ice. Avoid that, or even just restrict it to one month, and the regional prognosis improves significantly. But it's approaching ten years now since the last notably "normal" summer, and with an impending El Niño, that streak does not look to end this year. Hope I'm wrong though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That only helps for so long. Three months of 80s-100s and high sun angles is going to parch even the wettest of marshes, and rip right through the winter snowpack and eat into long standing glacial ice. Avoid that, or even just restrict it to one month, and the regional prognosis improves significantly. But it's approaching ten years now since the last notably "normal" summer, and with an impending El Niño, that streak does not look to end this year. Hope I'm wrong though.

Seems fair to say that both matter 

Who’s to say the recent spell of warm and dry springs aren’t partially to blame for the recent string of record hot summers seasons don’t exist in a vacuum 

[SouthHillFrosty]