PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[TT-SEA]

Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some black ice conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some icy conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

Frost in early February. Knock me over with a feather. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Stayed cloudy overnight up here with some light rain at times low of 36 currently mostly cloudy still and 40.

[ShawniganLake]

Metro Vancouver should see some accumulating snow tomorrow. Perhaps an inch or 2.  We might see a bit over here but we generally end up pretty dry in similar setups.

[Phishy Wx]

more fodder for the incoming Blizzard at the end of the month

[Meatyorologist]

Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

I think it'll be cool and wet. Should help our summer.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   

That graph actually has a statistical manipulation at the end. Basically assuming the Holocene interglacial is a new epoch and there will be no subsequent glacial inception (which is almost certainly false). So they simply “add in” the spike.

In reality, on the resolution they use, the kind would still be going down.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

Pure. Conjecture.

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

No doubt. Our planet is far more resilient than a lot of people think. Though plenty of species will go extinct along the way.

The only issue with that graph is the scale is so large that it's impossible to tell how much faster the temperature rise is now than in previous ones. Other ones also look nearly vertical, but even a rise that took a few million years would look that way on that scale which would obviously be fundamentally different from the human induced temp rises we've seen from the last couple hundred years.

A sea level rise that takes thousands of years is pretty easy to adjust to. But one that takes just 100 is much harder since it floods cities and ruins recently built buildings.

The temperature rise today is not all that fast compared to the high amplitude gyrations that occurred and falls during glacials (and glacial terminations). And even the Holocene itself.

This the reality of last 5 million years (limited resolution, of course, but still higher than the other graph).

And here is the last 100,000 years, viewed on an even *higher* resolution. All of this was smoothed away on Tim’s graph (the blue line reflects today’s temperature).

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

41 at home after a low of 35. Way out here in eatonville now…37 and we’ve had some close to snow rain showers. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Step back on the ensembles thus far. 

Ensembles generally look like a step back across the board today.  EPS still pretty ridgy through Valentine’s Day. 

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ensembles generally look like a step back across the board today.  EPS still pretty ridgy through Valentine’s Day. 

Booooooo

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

Just crazy.   The tropics have been encased in ice and too hot for most life to exist.  

[Phil]

 

[Phil]

Immovable object. Could be tough to overcome.

[Phil]

That said, super PV begins to increase cold risks during the spring, as it breaks down (usually in April/May). Particularly true if it’s a dynamic final warming (or if the vortex remains very strong into late April).

Doesn’t mean the cold will be centered in the West, but odds are higher with any IPWP/WPAC component to tropical forcing. Still, would not surprise me if the West experiences an anomalously cold pattern sometime in the late-March to early May timeframe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Immovable object. Could be tough to overcome.

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

[MossMan]

Where is the 5” of snow that yesterdays WRF was advertising for me? 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where is the 5” of snow that yesterdays WRF was advertising for me? 

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

What did the PV look like in late February 2011?

[Phil]

Summary of the +TNH. A leading mode of cold season variability.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

[Phil]

+TNH can be cold in the West, BTW. And certainly can evolve/retrograde into a very cold pattern.

But it’s fickle/borderline..shift it slightly east and it becomes a ridgy pattern with cold in E-Canada/US, or slightly west and it’s closer to canonical Niña pattern with a SE-ridge.

In conjunction with a strong vortex (in-situ +AAM/transports statistically favored at certain latitudes) the outcome may be of the more progressive variety, with the +TNH complex better-resembling the western ridge/baffin island vortex scenario.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

About the same here.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

Remnants of our big snowstorm last night... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm so bored. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm so bored. 

New season of Ozark is out!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

I don't really watch television shows... Might record a podcast with Yev this weekend...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a mess.

[Phil]

Pretty much this.

 

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much this.

 

2015 incoming??    

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

We went into it with no knowledge of the split season. The end of episode seven followed by the return to the home screen prompted a January 2005-level meltdown.  

[Chris]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

The temperature rise today is not all that fast compared to the high amplitude gyrations that occurred and falls during glacials (and glacial terminations). And even the Holocene itself.

This the reality of last 5 million years (limited resolution, of course, but still higher than the other graph).

And here is the last 100,000 years, viewed on an even *higher* resolution. All of this was smoothed away on Tim’s graph (the blue line reflects today’s temperature).

 

 

How about that Younger Dryas

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Torching begets torching.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Survival. 

[LowerGarfield]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much this.

 

Maybe it's the Californian in me but I love Swain. He's a favorite follow if you like CA weather patterns.

[Deweydog]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't really watch television shows... Might record a podcast with Yev this weekend...

Well there you go! That’s something!

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2015 incoming??    

I hope not. But it’s certainly possible. With a +ENSO transition likely (IMO) the odds skew warm especially during the second half of summer.

But a more zonal-variety +ENSO outcome (like 2019, 1997, 1957, etc) is also possible. Basically we want to keep anomalous convection in the IO/ATL, and away from the WPAC (which is difficult to do in this era of steroidal WPAC-convection, but it’s still possible).

Maybe we’ll have a dynamic final warming and monster MJO wave in March, and quickly kickstart a more canonical/EP +ENSO and short circuit the heat.

If we slowly sleepwalk into a +ENSO via WPAC like 2014/15, then it’ll be a furnace of a summer. Ironically, a faster/higher amplitude +ENSO transition may be the “cooler” scenario this year.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Chris said:

How about that Younger Dryas

Lol. We’d be shìtting our pants if something of that magnitude were to happen today (thankfully not likely in the interglacial mean state).

Imagine if the observed warming/sea level rise over the last 350 years all happened in 1 year, and continued at that rate for 5-10 years. Would not be pretty.

[TT-SEA]

45/35 at SEA today during the coldest 850mb temps of this current troughy period.   

As Justin mentioned would happen... its significantly warmer in many places this week with a much colder air mass overhead than it was during the inversion period.

[MossMan]

It’s not coming. 

[hawkstwelve]

Looks like we will be heading out for SD on 3/2 with stops in CDA, Butte, Sheridan/Buffalo, and Rapid City on our way to Sioux Falls. Move in date will be 3/7. 

March appears to be a transition month for SF with an average of 7 inches snow while the average max temp jumps 13 degrees from February, landing at 45F. I don't think thunderstorm season really kicks off until JJA, sometimes can happen a bit earlier in May. Excited to start learning about a whole new climate!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like we will be heading out for SD on 3/2 with stops in CDA, Butte, Sheridan/Buffalo, and Rapid City on our way to Sioux Falls. Move in date will be 3/7. 

March appears to be a transition month for SF with an average of 7 inches snow while the average max temp jumps 13 degrees from February, landing at 45F. I don't think thunderstorm season really kicks off until JJA, sometimes can happen a bit earlier in May. Excited to start learning about a whole new climate!

There can be nasty thunderstorms there in April and May.  And snowstorms too!

[gusky]

NWS and SWB touting snow chances tomorrow midday, but I'm really not seeing a whole lot in the way of precip tomorrow. Most models have (weak) precip arriving early afternoon, at which point temps will be too high. Sfc and 925s are cold enough in the morning if moisture is to come though.