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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


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Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some black ice conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-3803200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Before it warms up... tomorrow morning looks really icy.   Particularly for the EPSL up to Bellingham.    Might be some icy conditions where there is still precip this afternoon.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-3803200.png

Frost in early February. Knock me over with a feather. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Ready for spring. Maybe it will be more interesting. 

I think it'll be cool and wet. Should help our summer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 14 (Most recent: Dec 3, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   😀

graph-from-scott-wing-620px (1).png

That graph actually has a statistical manipulation at the end. Basically assuming the Holocene interglacial is a new epoch and there will be no subsequent glacial inception (which is almost certainly false). So they simply “add in” the spike.

In reality, on the resolution they use, the kind would still be going down.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sun is definitely a jump higher in the sky now compared to late December. Additionally it’s lost quite a bit of that orange hue. It’s a brighter daylight, though the net effect in the house (at least around solar noon) is darker since less sun peers indoors.

Pure. Conjecture.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Saw this chart in an article last night and found it really interesting.   We are living in a great time to be alive for fans of cold weather!     

We are still recovering from the last ice age which is that large jump up at the end in the last 15,000 years.   Most of the last 500 million years has been WAY warmer than it is today.   In fact... a large percentage of that time was spent with no polar ice caps.    

Can you imagine an average global temp of 90 degrees?     Its currently just below 60.   😀

graph-from-scott-wing-620px (1).png

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

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2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

No doubt. Our planet is far more resilient than a lot of people think. Though plenty of species will go extinct along the way.

The only issue with that graph is the scale is so large that it's impossible to tell how much faster the temperature rise is now than in previous ones. Other ones also look nearly vertical, but even a rise that took a few million years would look that way on that scale which would obviously be fundamentally different from the human induced temp rises we've seen from the last couple hundred years.

A sea level rise that takes thousands of years is pretty easy to adjust to. But one that takes just 100 is much harder since it floods cities and ruins recently built buildings.

The temperature rise today is not all that fast compared to the high amplitude gyrations that occurred and falls during glacials (and glacial terminations). And even the Holocene itself.

This the reality of last 5 million years (limited resolution, of course, but still higher than the other graph).BF1C5FEE-D564-4D41-B5BE-4B273BB51E79.thumb.jpeg.a4989500cf6f14bddb87b64e41751e88.jpeg

And here is the last 100,000 years, viewed on an even *higher* resolution. All of this was smoothed away on Tim’s graph (the blue line reflects today’s temperature).

77338A9D-4019-4ED5-AEFF-1CB0DFE07690.thumb.jpeg.3a0c3a506afd01a051423778df544750.jpeg 

 

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41 at home after a low of 35. Way out here in eatonville now…37 and we’ve had some close to snow rain showers. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Ensembles generally look like a step back across the board today.  EPS still pretty ridgy through Valentine’s Day. 

Booooooo

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I read once that the tropics during the Triassic were too hot for most non-microbial life forms. Imagine average land temps in the 140s with sea surface temps at 105-110.

Just crazy.   The tropics have been encased in ice and too hot for most life to exist.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That said, super PV begins to increase cold risks during the spring, as it breaks down (usually in April/May). Particularly true if it’s a dynamic final warming (or if the vortex remains very strong into late April).

Doesn’t mean the cold will be centered in the West, but odds are higher with any IPWP/WPAC component to tropical forcing. Still, would not surprise me if the West experiences an anomalously cold pattern sometime in the late-March to early May timeframe.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Immovable object. Could be tough to overcome.A9995D88-2FA4-44C2-A3D0-A62E921769E3.thumb.gif.adb423b547c98310a22373a089c8c1ef.gif

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Where is the 5” of snow that yesterdays WRF was advertising for me? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where is the 5” of snow that yesterdays WRF was advertising for me? 

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Isn’t keeping cold air out of the lower 48.

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

True, cold isn’t always bottled away with a strong PV. A variety of seasonal and state dependent dynamics are involved.

Strong PV in Nov/Dec can easily be cold in the West, for instance. But come mid/late winter, a cold CONUS pattern with a strong PV is more likely to be of the +TNH variety.

All depends on the degree of strat/trop coupling, tilting/stretching of the PV due to various forcings, in addition to seasonally-mediated/modulated dynamics/forcings.

What did the PV look like in late February 2011?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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+TNH can be cold in the West, BTW. And certainly can evolve/retrograde into a very cold pattern.

But it’s fickle/borderline..shift it slightly east and it becomes a ridgy pattern with cold in E-Canada/US, or slightly west and it’s closer to canonical Niña pattern with a SE-ridge.

In conjunction with a strong vortex (in-situ +AAM/transports statistically favored at certain latitudes) the outcome may be of the more progressive variety, with the +TNH complex better-resembling the western ridge/baffin island vortex scenario.

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  • Longtimer
16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How many inches do you have on the ground now?   ;)

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

D83F4878-1FB8-4C8C-B193-E6F6FC5DCC2C.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

From this mornings mega dumping! Gone now! 

D83F4878-1FB8-4C8C-B193-E6F6FC5DCC2C.jpeg

Remnants of our big snowstorm last night... 

20220201_144447.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

I'm so bored. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

New season of Ozark is out!

I don't really watch television shows... Might record a podcast with Yev this weekend...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

What a mess.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already on episode 6.  

But the second half of season 4 won't be released until June... so this first round will be pretty anti-climatic.

We went into it with no knowledge of the split season. The end of episode seven followed by the return to the home screen prompted a January 2005-level meltdown.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

The temperature rise today is not all that fast compared to the high amplitude gyrations that occurred and falls during glacials (and glacial terminations). And even the Holocene itself.

This the reality of last 5 million years (limited resolution, of course, but still higher than the other graph).BF1C5FEE-D564-4D41-B5BE-4B273BB51E79.thumb.jpeg.a4989500cf6f14bddb87b64e41751e88.jpeg

And here is the last 100,000 years, viewed on an even *higher* resolution. All of this was smoothed away on Tim’s graph (the blue line reflects today’s temperature).

77338A9D-4019-4ED5-AEFF-1CB0DFE07690.thumb.jpeg.3a0c3a506afd01a051423778df544750.jpeg 

 

How about that Younger Dryas

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  • Longtimer

Torching begets torching.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty much this.

 

Maybe it's the Californian in me but I love Swain. He's a favorite follow if you like CA weather patterns.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 3.5 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1.70 inches (12/4/22 & 12/5/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 1.5 on 12/5/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/5/22

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't really watch television shows... Might record a podcast with Yev this weekend...

Well there you go! That’s something!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2015 incoming??    🔥

I hope not. But it’s certainly possible. With a +ENSO transition likely (IMO) the odds skew warm especially during the second half of summer.

But a more zonal-variety +ENSO outcome (like 2019, 1997, 1957, etc) is also possible. Basically we want to keep anomalous convection in the IO/ATL, and away from the WPAC (which is difficult to do in this era of steroidal WPAC-convection, but it’s still possible).

Maybe we’ll have a dynamic final warming and monster MJO wave in March, and quickly kickstart a more canonical/EP +ENSO and short circuit the heat.

If we slowly sleepwalk into a +ENSO via WPAC like 2014/15, then it’ll be a furnace of a summer. Ironically, a faster/higher amplitude +ENSO transition may be the “cooler” scenario this year.

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15 minutes ago, Chris said:

How about that Younger Dryas

Lol. We’d be shìtting our pants if something of that magnitude were to happen today (thankfully not likely in the interglacial mean state).

Imagine if the observed warming/sea level rise over the last 350 years all happened in 1 year, and continued at that rate for 5-10 years. Would not be pretty. 😬

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45/35 at SEA today during the coldest 850mb temps of this current troughy period.   

As Justin mentioned would happen... its significantly warmer in many places this week with a much colder air mass overhead than it was during the inversion period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like we will be heading out for SD on 3/2 with stops in CDA, Butte, Sheridan/Buffalo, and Rapid City on our way to Sioux Falls. Move in date will be 3/7. 

March appears to be a transition month for SF with an average of 7 inches snow while the average max temp jumps 13 degrees from February, landing at 45F. I don't think thunderstorm season really kicks off until JJA, sometimes can happen a bit earlier in May. Excited to start learning about a whole new climate!

There can be nasty thunderstorms there in April and May.  And snowstorms too!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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NWS and SWB touting snow chances tomorrow midday, but I'm really not seeing a whole lot in the way of precip tomorrow. Most models have (weak) precip arriving early afternoon, at which point temps will be too high. Sfc and 925s are cold enough in the morning if moisture is to come though.1643828400-qAb8Sz0iGvE.png

 

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

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