PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, TeacherLori said:

So, is winter over?

Not in MT!

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Climate change

It's almost like its hiding right in front of our faces and people don't see it

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You guys are feast or famine down there. Must be incredibly frustrating. 

Out top 5 longest mid winter dry spells in the last 150 years have all come in the last 10 years. I think we may have broken the weather. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

It's almost like its hiding right in front of our faces and people don't see it

Seriously. lol

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks sort of crashy at the end of the run... but a lack of SE ridge would probably prevent that trough in western Canada from really digging into the western US.

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seriously. lol

seriously

[Clancy MT DW9972]

4 hours ago, Kayla said:

Dropped down to -16F here this morning with 5" of new snow overnight. Currently -13F.

Here's our garden area. There are four garden boxes under there somewhere! Looking forward to gardening season but until then, bring on the snow and cold!

And what it looked like in July this past year.

You guys just keep getting all of the good snow!!   Up here a little south of Helena, we have only had maybe 20" of snow this winter and over half of that melted soon after it fell.  Great photos!

[LowerGarfield]

Clouding up quite a bit over the last hour or two whereas it was clear and cold at 19F when I took my son to school. Sad thing is that any snow we get tonight will probably melt by mid morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Some improvement on the 12Z EPS... certainly some potential at the end of the run.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a mostly cloudy and drippy 45/36 day to start February yesterday cloudy and 37 currently with drizzle and light east winds this trough has been pretty cloudy for the Portland area no hard freezes 

[BLI snowman]

Definitely turning into more of an Eastern and Midwestern centric winter. Oh well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely turning into more of an Eastern and Midwestern centric winter. Oh well.

We had our 7-10 days of winter. Our allotment it seems. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely turning into more of an Eastern and Midwestern centric winter. Oh well.

Pretty good winter from Seattle northwards, too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says cold March...

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty good winter from Seattle northwards, too.

Not bad given the warming climate. Best since 2016-17 anyways. 

[TacomaWaWx]

38 at home…36 out here in eatonville. Haven’t seen any snowflakes here yet but it’s cold enough. 

[Phishy Wx]

nothing like following up a crappy winter, with a cold, clammy and wet spring.

 

at least it will be Graupel season.   Did I tell you guys how much I love Graupel?

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

nothing like following up a crappy winter, with a cold, clammy and wet spring.

 

at least it will be Graupel season.   Did I tell you guys how much I love Graupel?

A cool and wet spring is really needed this year to avoid another summer of drought and fires we haven’t had one in years hope La Niña delivers for us but sounds like it’s influence is already fading 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A cool and wet spring is really needed this year to avoid another summer of drought and fires we haven’t had one in years hope La Niña delivers for us but sounds like it’s influence is already fading 

Haven’t had a wet spring since 2017. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Haven’t had a wet spring since 2017. 

We are due. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pretty good winter from Seattle northwards, too.

If we get shut out the rest of the way down here, I'd probably go with a C or C- for us. Not terrible but extremely forgettable nonetheless.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are due. 

May has been crazy. The last legitimately wet one here was in 2013.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May has been crazy. The last legitimately wet one here was in 2013.

That one was extremely dynamic. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That one was extremely dynamic. 

2013 was a strangely dynamic year considering how boring it often was. The crazy long lived inversion in January, the Jekyll/Hyde flip in May with the historically cold/wet day on the 22nd, the historically wet/active September, and then the arctic blast in December that was probably the most impressive of the century thus far for OR as a whole.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely turning into more of an Eastern and Midwestern centric winter. Oh well.

Feels a lot like 2017/18. But even that was +PMM a few years removed from the super niño. 2nd year Niña/-PMM/-PDO under mature -QBO at 50mb going full blown +TNH/+PNA with deep midwestern troughing is unusual.

Niñas that saw profound +TNH and/or +PNA (or something adjacent) in Jan and/or Feb (1967/68, 1984/85, 1996/97, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2013/14, 2017/18, etc) all either flipped neutral or went into El Niño the subsequent fall/winter.

[ShawniganLake]

43 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Haven’t had a wet spring since 2017. 

Summer of 2017 felt like the smokiest of them all up here.  Wet springs don’t necessarily end the fire threat come summer. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Summer of 2017 felt like the smokiest of them all up here.  Wet springs don’t necessarily end the fire threat come summer. 

2017 was doable in Southern Oregon smoke-wise because it wasn't all summer long. We had a nice enough season for storms that they dropped a lot of rain. One day would be really smoky and then most the next week would have well below 100 AQI. 

Now 2018 was the crazy one that we were smoked out May through early October. 

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

You guys just keep getting all of the good snow!!   Up here a little south of Helena, we have only had maybe 20" of snow this winter and over half of that melted soon after it fell.  Great photos!

Yeah Bozeman proper snowpack is doing quite well with about a foot or more on the ground since mid December.

60" on the season at MSU and 72" so far in my backyard which is a little above average for this point in the season.

[Kayla]

5 hours ago, jakerepp said:

I almost like the summer picture as much as the snow picture. The clouds look incredible.

Another reason why we do still love living here. We get some really awesome thunderstorms and cloud structures during the late spring and summer.

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Feels a lot like 2017/18. But even that was +PMM a few years removed from the super niño. 2nd year Niña/-PMM/-PDO under mature -QBO at 50mb going full blown +TNH/+PNA with deep midwestern troughing is unusual.

Niñas that saw profound +TNH and/or +PNA (or something adjacent) in Jan and/or Feb (1967/68, 1984/85, 1996/97, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2013/14, 2017/18, etc) all either flipped neutral or went into El Niño the subsequent fall/winter.

Would be odd for the East to hog the bulk of the troughing in a La Nina February. Last time that happened was 2007-08, and that January was pretty troughy in the West unlike this year. 

[MWG]

 

 

[MWG]

4 minutes ago, MWG said:

 

 

Forgot to add that we probably will break the record since there is no rain in sight.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 hours ago, Kayla said:

Found the exact same perspective from a couple of summers ago! I'm such a nerd haha

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sad that Timmy in KY is going to miss this snowstorm.      

Phil - you could travel west this time!    No ocean to screw up the snow.  

It looks like the path of the 2024 solar eclipse.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z euro ensembles show some promise in the long range 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

Precip has started here... drizzle and 36.    Models show 925 temp going above 0 here around 4 or 5 p.m. so it seems unlikely that it will snow at this point.

[Timmy Supercell]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sad that Timmy in KY is going to miss this snowstorm.      

Phil - you could travel west this time!    No ocean to screw up the snow.  

There's still the ice part that I can get.

But yeah if no snow happens, this could be one WSW that didn't really pan out. We'll see.

I'm more concerned about the kind of t'storms I get later this year. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Currently snowing up here in the Cordata area, haven’t figured out a reliable weather station near my new office, but it looks like it’s about 35.  It’s sticking on the grass and flower beds…