PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

If you get hit and  I don't again, I'm going to move. 

Start packing lol, nah, probabaly won't get much here, trying to us the powers of positivity though.  I do like the trajectory of the system and could get some help with winds coming around the SW side of the Olympics similar to the one system in December.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I have a good feeling about tonight for here, for some reason.

HRRR says you are in the best spot tonight...

 

[Prairiedog]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really need to buy trough heaters for our livestock water, last night and this morning sucked breaking up the ice and pouring buckets of hot water in to make sure they could drink. We didn't have as many animals back in 2016-17 or that winter would have been a total nightmare. 

They make them for hummingbird feeders.  LOL.  Haven't tried them.  I just rotate them in and out in these events.  East winds really freeze them up in a hurry so it can be a problem if I'm not around (can't fish in these conditions so I'm usually around).  I had a hummer land on my hand this am as i was a few minutes late getting her feeder out in time.  Poor girl was desperate, Barely daybreak and she was hunting nectar.  On regular days they aren't out quite as quick.  Frogs still chorusing!   19f this morning.  

[Deweydog]

My neighbor is mowing.

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

HRRR says you are in the best spot tonight...

 

The models showed a skiff back in December when we got 6" during the first snow event.  Honestly not expecting much if any, just hopeful for a bust.

[The Blob]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

BTW… in case anyone is wondering the pans of water FROZE SOLID.

A house we walk by to school has a terracotta pot that has been frozen for a few days. 

[BLI snowman]

WHET!

Joshua's almost in the bullseye!

[The Blob]

21 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Meanwhile in Julian, CA....

 

Good place for pie.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

WHET!

Joshua's almost in the bullseye!

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

WHET!

Joshua's almost in the bullseye!

It would have to be in Redding for Joshua to be in the bullseye, sorry.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, The Blob said:

A house we walk by to school has a terracotta pot that has been frozen for a few days. 

Can’t imagine what the freezing point is for terracotta.

[FroYoBro]

The winds have really died here. Hoping the clouds hold off for a bit tonight to get some nice lows. 

[Deweydog]

***VIRGA APPROACHING ON LANGLEY RADAR***
 

ACTIVATE THE COMMAND CENTER

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32/15 today. Back down to 31 dp 9. Severe clear. 

[Phishy Wx]

Clouds moved in from the approaching Clipper.

made it up to 21

now back down to 20

DP -1

[Chewbacca Defense]

42 minutes ago, Prairiedog said:

They make them for hummingbird feeders.  LOL.  Haven't tried them.  I just rotate them in and out in these events.  East winds really freeze them up in a hurry so it can be a problem if I'm not around (can't fish in these conditions so I'm usually around).  I had a hummer land on my hand this am as i was a few minutes late getting her feeder out in time.  Poor girl was desperate, Barely daybreak and she was hunting nectar.  On regular days they aren't out quite as quick.  Frogs still chorusing!   19f this morning.  

I have a feeder on our Frasier Outflow facing side of the house, and it did not freeze until it down below about 10 degrees.

I have the base feeder which is an incandescent nightlight bulb in a plastic cup, then I wrap the bottle in incandescent Christmas lights and bubble wrap.  It's ghetto but it does the trick, I'll go down and take a picture in a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw a few hummingbirds around today actually. 

[LowerGarfield]

We still have a decent snow depth and NWS Spokane issued a forecast about an hour ago they think I will get 1-2 inches of new snow tonight. Didn't have time to shovel so I put ice melt down on our north facing sidewalk. Hope it helps a little bit. I don't use the front so I was surprised that the front walk still has a solid coating of snow and ice..ooops...Only another hour or so left of daylight. But nice to have exciting weather.

I did put my snow board out for good luck though.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF says its going to be a snowy night for many people... Randy is of course in the one of the best spots.

In terms of timing... it begins by 9 p.m. up north and is done by 5 a.m. for most places.   

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF also shows tomorrow being mostly sunny from about Olympia northward but low clouds hang on all day from Portland southward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF says its going to be a snowy night for many people... Randy is of course in the one of the best spots.

In terms of timing... it begins by 9 p.m. up north and is done by 5 a.m. for most places.   

Bout a half inch here. I’ll take it. Lol. Hope it stays clear until 2-3a down here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF also shows tomorrow being mostly sunny from about Olympia northward but low clouds hang on all day from Portland southward.

Wonder if it’s a little cooler than expected down here because of that... Looks like PDX, SLE, and EUG all topped out at 40 today.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Prairiedog said:

They make them for hummingbird feeders.  LOL.  Haven't tried them.  I just rotate them in and out in these events.  East winds really freeze them up in a hurry so it can be a problem if I'm not around (can't fish in these conditions so I'm usually around).  I had a hummer land on my hand this am as i was a few minutes late getting her feeder out in time.  Poor girl was desperate, Barely daybreak and she was hunting nectar.  On regular days they aren't out quite as quick.  Frogs still chorusing!   19f this morning.  

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if it’s a little cooler than expected down here because of that... Looks like PDX, SLE, and EUG all topped out at 40 today.

High temps and cloud cover tomorrow afternoon...

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF says its going to be a snowy night for many people... Randy is of course in the one of the best spots.

In terms of timing... it begins by 9 p.m. up north and is done by 5 a.m. for most places.   

Euro has handled everything so far very well…no reason to doubt it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

37/21 here today exactly what I figured the max would be this morning. Very impressive day…hopefully some snow tomorrow morning before we start moderating as we end the week. 

[MossMan]

Very cloudy! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps and cloud cover tomorrow afternoon...

Hmmm. I could see it being cooler, unless flow is onshore. 

[Meatyorologist]

Down to 38°F here on the NE side of the city after a high of 39°F. We heat up quite easily here away from the water so we're usually warmer than the rest of the city on mixed afternoons like today. Still though, a sub 40°F day!

KSEA currently is still sitting at 36°F, their max so far. With clouds moving overhead and evening settling in, SeaTac could very well have a 36/23 day; a -15°F departure for this date.

That high is 2°F lower than the average low today, and once again ties the record lowest max for this date, set in 1956. That makes for 4 record daily low maxima set/tied this winter, 5 since October. Good stuff.

[Perturbed Member]

18z Euro was a good bit wetter than the 12z for tonight's "event". 

Some of the other models. 3km NAM, UKMET, GEM, RGEM, GFS, ICON. A dusting seems possible. 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes these systems can overachieve with precip here... I’m starting to pay attention. 

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps and cloud cover tomorrow afternoon...

Hopefully KSEA can pull off a sub 40°F tomorrow for no other reason than neatness.

Record low maxima for tomorrow is 35°F set in 2011. Not going to stay below 36°F. Moderation of this current airmass plus general afternoon mixing will prevent it.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes these systems can overachieve with precip here... I’m starting to pay attention. 

We're screwed.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes these systems can overachieve with precip here... I’m starting to pay attention. 

I get the feeling it’ll overachieve tonight. 

[Meatyorologist]

HRRR has some flurries in the air by 8pm.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes these systems can overachieve with precip here... I’m starting to pay attention. 

Yep, Mark is calling for flurries to a half inch but of course you cant rule out the possibility of an inch or two for some lucky spot. 0.1 in qpf doesn't take that much. 

A very weak “BC Slider” system (more like Alberta Slider) is dropping south out of Canada late tonight and early Thursday morning.  Models have been showing this for several days, and we’ve been expecting just a few flurries.  That still appears to be the case.   But if we get anything more than flurries, temperatures are cold enough that snow could stick anywhere in the region.  

If it was normal weather (mild), we’d be calling for sprinkles or a shower tomorrow morning.  But keep in mind that sometimes that turns into a couple hours of showers.  Would you even notice?  Would any of us notice the difference between sprinkles and .05″ of rain?  Not really.  But for tomorrow that could make a huge difference between a few flurries in the air and snow-covered roads. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sometimes these systems can overachieve with precip here... I’m starting to pay attention. 

Particularly with some showery stuff trailing behind it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We're screwed.

I'm not really that excited, more hopefully the clouds come in late enough it doesn't mess with lows to much, and keeps it cool tomorrow. A little snow is always wonderful, but the relative snow potential isn't much. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could see it over performing based on the trend. 

GFS ensembles look great. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Yep, Mark is calling for flurries to a half inch but of course you cant rule out the possibility of an inch or two for some lucky spot. 0.1 in qpf doesn't take that much. 

A very weak “BC Slider” system (more like Alberta Slider) is dropping south out of Canada late tonight and early Thursday morning.  Models have been showing this for several days, and we’ve been expecting just a few flurries.  That still appears to be the case.   But if we get anything more than flurries, temperatures are cold enough that snow could stick anywhere in the region.  

If it was normal weather (mild), we’d be calling for sprinkles or a shower tomorrow morning.  But keep in mind that sometimes that turns into a couple hours of showers.  Would you even notice?  Would any of us notice the difference between sprinkles and .05″ of rain?  Not really.  But for tomorrow that could make a huge difference between a few flurries in the air and snow-covered roads. 

This exactly. Normally innocuous QPF errors in rainy situations turn into major errors in excess of an inch when dealing with snow. Tonight's snowfall will be quite dry and cold with high ratios, so errors will only be compounded tonight.