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PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand


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SEA only picked up .04 in the last hour as the main band is now shifting east.    That brings the total for the day to 2.96 inches and might fall just short of 3 inches.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA only picked up .04 in the last hour as the main band is now shifting east.    That brings the total for the day to 2.96 inches and might fall just short of 3 inches.   

Really pulling for those showers popping up in the South Sound to give them another 0.04” before midnight.

Everett has only gotten about 0.25” today. Rain shadow has been impressive.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA only picked up .04 in the last hour as the main band is now shifting east.    That brings the total for the day to 2.96 inches and might fall just short of 3 inches.   

Yeah it's not gonna make it. Crazy that I'm north of Seatac and easily cleared 4". Mountain effect is real.

It's like squeezing an orange.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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02-28-2022 OBS for MBY - AR edition

High temp - 54* recorded at 12:15 pm
Low temp - 49* recorded at 12:01 am

New precip - 1.84"
Total February precip - 5.40"
We have received 102% of our normal February precip 100% of the way through the month.
91% of our February precip was recorded in the last 3 days of the month.
(I didn't think in a million years this would end up being a wetter than normal month)

New snow - 0"
Final met winter snow total 21-22 - 10.9"

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20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Winter (DJF) temps and precip for the region 

28AEAEC8-CB96-4F97-AF03-C131E97565A4.thumb.png.2b463dae7dd2ce4aa6bee2ae0e871188.png

 

08E7B55B-2827-4C70-B7AD-ECD8AE00F891.thumb.png.e0183bcfcfe50b8a73dcbb8a7ecafc83.png

As discussed previously... that map is misleading for the Seattle area down to Olympia because it includes some stations which have only sporadic data in that area and that causes the map to always look drier than reality.

For DJF... SEA was actually +1.20 inches and OLM was +4.52

Going back further... SEA is +7.00 inches for the water year and OLM is +8.51

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Currently sunshine and partly cloudy skies against a 90% categorical rain forecast.

Day total: 0.16"

Storm total: 0.44"

Water year (Oct. 1 to date): 21.53", or about -5.50" for this location.

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31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Winter (DJF) temps and precip for the region 

28AEAEC8-CB96-4F97-AF03-C131E97565A4.thumb.png.2b463dae7dd2ce4aa6bee2ae0e871188.png

 

08E7B55B-2827-4C70-B7AD-ECD8AE00F891.thumb.png.e0183bcfcfe50b8a73dcbb8a7ecafc83.png

2 straight La Ninas and the entire MFR region in the red. "But they're high desert" - regardless, it's a newer recent trend. It's like we need neutral and weak Ninos to get them wet. lol

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

2 straight La Ninas and the entire MFR region in the red. "But they're high desert" - regardless, it's a newer recent trend. It's like we need neutral and weak Ninos to get them wet. lol

The time frame on this map doesn’t include two la ninas it’s just showing the last three months  (winter) fall was wetter in many areas hopefully spring will be too 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Interestingly, the recent downwelling OKW seems to have been ineffective at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

Head scratcher to me, but hard to deny. The odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing.

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The time frame on this map doesn’t include two la ninas it’s just showing the last three months  (winter) fall was wetter in many areas hopefully spring will be too 

I know that, but it's almost a copy-paste of 20-21 Nina. Southern Oregon in the last few years can't seem to buy an average winter in raw precipitation. AR's used to soak NorCal.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know that, but it's almost a copy-paste of 20-21 Nina. Southern Oregon in the last few years can't seem to buy an average winter in raw precipitation. AR's used to soak NorCal.

California got an epic AR in October and more in December nothing really since though 

The last multi-year Niño down there featured one of their worst droughts on record (2013-16) it took a decent La Niña (2016-17) to pull them out of it

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Interestingly, the recent downwelling OKW seems to have been ineffective at depressing the thermocline east of the dateline.

Head scratcher to me, but hard to deny. The odds of a transition into El Niño seem to be decreasing.

give me Neutral all day long!

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The 18z EPS is the coldest yet with the mini blast next week, and shows 850s dropping to -10 over SEA on the mean.  Looks like a pretty solid shot at another couple of days of double digit minus departures for SEA with this.  I expect the GFS to move decidedly colder on tonight's run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z EPS is the coldest yet with the mini blast next week, and shows 850s dropping to -10 over SEA on the mean.  Looks like a pretty solid shot at another couple of days of double digit minus departures for SEA with this.  I expect the GFS to move decidedly colder on tonight's run.

Wrong thread

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