2/3-2/4 Southern Lakes/Ohio Valley Winter Storm...

[DominicR]

Good Luck to all. that's all it is. Seems most on here enjoy winter weather-- even the cold like myself. Why the majority of  the general public is so agst cold/snow in this part of the country baffles me-- enjoy it why it lasts--- a brutal summer is coming. IF you had to pick one---Furnace out  on a -15F degree night (I heat with wood-- no issues) or A/C out with temps around 100F.  Even if I didn't heat with wood,,  I would take the winter idea over the summer. WHY-- much easier/more options to heat a home then cool one. A/C out-- your screwed.

 

Oh man this reminds me of last summer. That record heat around 4th of July. It was pretty hot summer we had. Our A/C was not working and could not afford to fix it and as well pay the bill so I had to use a cheap 15 dollar lasco fan. Being a big guy to it was horrible I had numerous sleepless nights and waking up drenched in sweat. The cool air is so much better. It makes me feel much more relaxed and sleep easier and longer. I even open the window up in the winter to get air in here. The light warms it up to much in here such a small room. Though when it's bitter outside you wonder how they use to do it back the day luckily technology and our brains are giving us a much more flexible and easy life at least for some of us and until we destroy ourselves.

[DominicR]

Not like models really matter but NAM looks a tad drier in NE IL. Very close though. Looks good IN/N OH.

[DominicR]

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL308 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SPREADING SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ANDPERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SPREAD SNOWFROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILLPERSIST TONIGHT WHILE TAPERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEREMAY ALSO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES NEAR LAKEMICHIGAN. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE FAVORED TO LAST IN OPEN AREASTHROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.ILZ006-008-010>014-041715-/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0021.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO308 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TONOON CST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON  AND INCREASING IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK. SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO  WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS  EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH  ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN....ALONG WITH MODERATE  SNOWFALL RATES TONIGHT WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE FOR  PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE FAVORED TO LAST  INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE THIS EVENING  AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW  CREATING EVEN FURTHER REDUCED VISIBILITY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THATVISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING ANDBLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING... ESPECIALLY IN OPENAREAS.&&$$MTFVISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOVWWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGOWWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO 

[Geos]

Luckily this storm won't be high impact, since it's falling between the rush hours. Tomorrow could be a little tricky though, especially near the lake. 2-4" in my grid now.

[DominicR]

12z NAM coming in wetter ecp along lake...

 

 

[DominicR]

Hope that dry air gets killed and we be looking good in NE IL.

[DominicR]

DTX looks solid to. 12+ south of city. 6-10 city and 3-6 north.

[Scott26]

Obvious NW shift also present on the NAM. It looks like the biggest issue will be dry air, but it should be shunted lakeside. Detroit would have Warning snows according to the 12Z NAM. Winterfreak is going to get slammed also with a lot of Missouri getting 12 plus that run.

[DominicR]

Something tells me this not right..you think we get crushed

[Sciascia]

Something tells me this not right..you think we get crushed

If we didn't have dry air to deal with, we'd have a chance to be crushed. Met on AmWx said the 850 track on the NAM is usually a perfect one for Chicago to get significant snows.

[Geos]

4km NAM late this afternoon.

 

[winterfreak]

This thing is pivoting perfectly for us. Such an awesome sight to see on radar. It's only begining.

[Tony]

RH map. Looking at the radar it seems to matchup perfectly. Hopefully the lake breeze can help saturate the atmosphere.

[DominicR]

SREF plumes on rise to 7.5 for Detroit average.

[Geos]

Going to have to boot that dry air.

 

RAP at 5pm.

 

[gosaints]

Man talk about a tough forecast for LOT

[DominicR]

Man talk about a tough forecast for LOT

 

I heard RGEM is juicier and bit NW. How it look for us?

[DominicR]

14z RAP looks great just that dry air. Looks pretty noticable. I hope we can overcome that quick and if so this could be a big over-performer here.

[Geos]

RGEM

 

[gosaints]

I heard RGEM is juicier and bit NW. How it look for us?

All gonna come down to dry air me thinks.  GFS shows it as well

[Tony]

Radar looks juicy.

[gosaints]

Would be kind of fun to have contest when ord sees there first flakes.

[Tony]

I could be wrong but looking at the 12z runs the low seems to close off and go negative tilt? Anyone else seeing this or is it just my wishfull thinking.

[Tony]

Would be kind of fun to have contest when ord sees there first flakes.

I will go bold and say 3:30pm

[Madtown]

6pm Chicago 8pm Madison for first flakes

[Geos]

Next 36 hours, GFS

 

 

4km NAM keeps this as a 12-8am storm. 

[Madtown]

 DVN AFD update mentions changes in the UA an interested how the models handle it

[shakjen]

I could be wrong but looking at the 12z runs the low seems to close off and go negative tilt? Anyone else seeing this or is it just my wishfull thinking.

 

LOT mentions a negative tilt in their most recent discussion

[East Dubzz]

This storm is going negative tilt, DVN has been saying that for a couple days now.

[Tony]

This storm is going negative tilt, DVN has been saying that for a couple days now.

The bigger question is then when does it go negative tilt. The earlier the better for sure. Also, this would make it a stronger storm as well I would imagine.

[Madtown]

the radar looks like a classic northern il southern  wisco storm  really disappointed in this one

[Tom]

The storm already is neg tilt, it has been going from a positive tilt near AZ earlier yesterday to a defined neg tilt late last night into today.  A NW trend is our friend and its sad that we couldn't get a big storm out of this but nonetheless I think ORD should squeeze 5-6" out of this.

[Tom]

HRRR picking up on lake bands developing around 10:00pm tonight...

 

 

[Tony]

The storm already is neg tilt, it has been going from a positive tilt near AZ earlier yesterday to a defined neg tilt late last night into today.  A NW trend is our friend and its sad that we couldn't get a big storm out of this but nonetheless I think ORD should squeeze 5-6" out of this.

You would think a negative tilt storm, pressing cold high with a wide open gulf would just scream "major storm" for our area.

[Tom]

Ya, tell me about it.  The track is too much on an easterly component.  If it was a lower lakes cutter this would easily be a 12"+ snowfall for us.  I'll be happy with 5-6"...TWC has 3-5" all the way up to the border and a pocket of 5-8" in Cook and points south.  We'll see what happens but if this can rev up and push that band farther north as the models are latching on to, we could get warning type snows.  Only if that High Pressure wasn't so strong.  The lake looks to start helping around 10:00pm, that's pretty early.  I didn't think that would start showing LehS till later on.  If it can continue all night we could be talking some pretty nice totals lakeside.

[Tony]

Ya, tell me about it.  The track is too much on an easterly component.  If it was a lower lakes cutter this would easily be a 12"+ snowfall for us.  I'll be happy with 5-6"...TWC has 3-5" all the way up to the border and a pocket of 5-8" in Cook and points south.  We'll see what happens but if this can rev up and push that band farther north as the models are latching on to, we could get warning type snows.  Only if that High Pressure wasn't so strong.  The lake looks to start helping around 10:00pm, that's pretty early.  I didn't think that would start showing LehS till later on.  If it can continue all night we could be talking some pretty nice totals lakeside.

The lake has been our friend this winter and hopefully it does not disappoint. With winds off the lake that might help saturate a little quicker, at least closer to the lake.

[Tom]

She's a beauty on radar, classic comma shape winter storm...lot of dry air near Bloomington, IL area...

[Sciascia]

I wonder how long the saturation will take. A couple people (not mets) think there's still 6+ hours until snow starts falling in Aurora. If that ends up being true, I'd say it won't start snowing here until 8ish.

[Geos]

Sometimes the lake acts to funnel in drier air. Wouldn't be surprised if light LES starts well ahead of the synoptic snow, otherwise the area could be waiting until after midnight, after 7 or 8pm south of I-88.

 

Nice sat image of the system.

 

 

It's not even snowing at STL let alone Springfield or Decatur.

[winterfreak]

This is taking the perfect track lol. Jim Cantore is here too which is usually a bad omen.