Jump to content

11/11 - 11/12 Plains/Lakes Autumn Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
Posted

I've had the "severe storms" wording added to my local point forecast for tomorrow. Pretty interesting wording in the forecast discussion from overnight out of OAX.

 

THE PRIMARY TREND IN THE NWP SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW IS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...THUS THE 18Z POSITIONS CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF RIPE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR CLOSED COLD CORE SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 50-55 KNOTS.

THESE CLASSIC PATTERNS TYPICALLY PUSH A RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE DRY
SLOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT 0-3KM CAPE
VALUES AND VERY HIGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ARC OF THE DRY SLOT PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR MINI
SUPERCELLS... SOMETIMES TORNADIC. THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SUPPORT THIS THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FROM MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 116
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

clintbeed1993
clintbeed1993

Really sad that this storm is moving so fast.  Odd for a storm this powerful to be moving out so quickly.  Anyway has been snowing here in Aurora for the last 2 hours and still coming down.  Grass is

james1976
james1976

This is gonna be a windy event with cold rain. This would be an all out blizzard if it was December! BTW my birthday is Wednesday. Birthday storm for me

Iowa2015
Iowa2015

Man if this were December this be a all out blizzard with amazing snow totals. Now it probably be a cold rain wind event

Posted Images

Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

I've had the "severe storms" wording added to my local point forecast for tomorrow. Pretty interesting wording in the forecast discussion from overnight out of OAX.

 

THE PRIMARY TREND IN THE NWP SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER AND SURFACE

LOW IS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...THUS THE 18Z POSITIONS CONTINUE TO BE

FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST

NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MID DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER

PROGRESSION SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF RIPE ATMOSPHERIC

CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR CLOSED COLD CORE SUPERCELLS MOVING TO THE

NORTHEAST AT 50-55 KNOTS.

 

THESE CLASSIC PATTERNS TYPICALLY PUSH A RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE DRY

SLOT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT 0-3KM CAPE

VALUES AND VERY HIGH LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE NORTHERN AND

EASTERN ARC OF THE DRY SLOT PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR MINI

SUPERCELLS... SOMETIMES TORNADIC. THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF

ALL SUPPORT THIS THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FROM MID

MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

 

This is what I was referring to earlier with the tornadic cells that spin up right inside the dry slot near the low. Should be interesting, not sure why the SPC decreased our risks to marginal given this trend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

Posted
Posted

This is what I was referring to earlier with the tornadic cells that spin up right inside the dry slot near the low. Should be interesting, not sure why the SPC decreased our risks to marginal given this trend.

Yeah it was odd they moved it to the east. I think they will move it back west with the early afternoon day 2 update. I'm planning on dropping off my little one at preschool at 9am and then heading into southwest Iowa right away and waiting for the storms to come to me. I'm probably only going to have one chance at an intercept. No catching up to anything tomorrow

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

4km NAM looks kind of scary in the mid-Mississippi River valley when it comes to severe weather. Supercell signatures on projected radar composites.

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone should check this new site out: Pivotalweather.com 

Some really great maps/graphics in there.

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

New NAM still a bit colder in Central Nebraska.  Painting some 2-4 inch totals.  GFS has been a bit warmer.  NAM has been consistent though so something to watch for.  I'll take NAM over GFS for short term accuracy any day.

Hastings has expanded the WSW further north and east to include St. Paul and points west of there....I'm now only two counties away! It should be an interesting day tomorrow; I have seen things change within 12 hours with these negative tilted vertically stacked storms. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

4km NAM looks kind of scary in the mid-Mississippi River valley when it comes to severe weather. Supercell signatures on projected radar composites.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111100/nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_7.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111100/nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111100/nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_9.png

 

Everyone should check this new site out: Pivotalweather.com 

Some really great maps/graphics in there.

Holy cow that is one impressive defo band....storms wrapping back into the cold sector could lead to thunder snow. Now if only surface temps can play ball, above ground there will be enough dynamic cooling to generate snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

Holy cow that is one impressive defo band....storms wrapping back into the cold sector could lead to thunder snow. Now if only surface temps can play ball, above ground there will be enough dynamic cooling to generate snow. 

 

It is impressive. This system goes negative tilt and phases very quickly. The exact opposite of 3 winters ago.

Snowfall map from pivotalweather

 

post-7-0-59429400-1447215700_thumb.png

  • Like 1

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

That embedded 16.7" snow total says to me that anyone from Central Nebraska out to the Panhandle have a legitmate shot at cashing in on accumulation. I think we are for sure out of the question here in LNK, dang dry slot :( but hey, this is an awesome system, and I just want precip. Going to be brutal walking to class tomorrow!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

Posted
Posted

It is impressive. This system goes negative tilt and phases very quickly. The exact opposite of 3 winters ago.

Snowfall map from pivotalweather

 

attachicon.gifsnowfall111215.png

 

Lock that in!  Look at that banding!  Big potential for Thundersnow and over 1 inch per hour snowfall rates.  I hope this thing surprises us with a blizzard.  GFS still has absolutely nothing accumulation wise.  Let the battle begin!  This will be so much fun to watch unfold tomorrow.  If we keep seeing storms like this we will have one incredible winter season!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

It is 36 degrees with light rain right now in Holdrege (Central Nebraska) with wind gusts over 35 mph and heavy fog, strange.  Some schools to our west are already closed.  I teach here so I am sure students will be asking about snow potential.  Here is the latest from the NWS in Hastings.

 

. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to
6 PM CST this evening...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory... which is in effect from 10 am this morning to
6 PM CST this evening.

* Impact... a period of snow combined with intense winds will
result in reduced visibilities that at times could fall below
one quarter mile making travel difficult.

* Snow accumulation... 1 to 3 inches of snow likely with some bands
of higher amounts possible.

* Timing... rain will mix with and change over to snow later this
morning. The heaviest snow is expected early to mid afternoon.

* Uncertainty... temperatures will be borderline between rain and
snow. If temperatures are slightly warmer... the precipitation
will fall more as rain instead of snow. If colder temperatures
of 32 degrees or colder are realized... snowfall may exceed
current forecast.

* Winds... northwest winds will remain strong all day with speeds
of 35 to 40 mph and some gusts to over 50 mph.

 

Local weather forecasters have said once it starts snowing do not travel until the heavy band goes through.  It is supposed to hit here between 11 AM and 4 PM which would really affect the end of the school day.  Should be an exciting day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

:) Good Luck to all you NE peeps! My work office is a stone's through from Lake MI here in SWMI. I love to see Storm Warnings hoisted on the lake. Going to enjoy my wind storm. Tis the season!

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

:) Good Luck to all you NE peeps! My work office is a stone's through from Lake MI here in SWMI. I love to see Storm Warnings hoisted on the lake. Going to enjoy my wind storm. Tis the season!

15-20' Waves heading your way!  Lake Michigan will be rockin' tomorrow...wouldn't be surprised to some rogue waves topping 25'...

 

CTiX2rCU8AAx_8B.png

 

 

12z 4k-NAM still painting spotty heavier accumulations.  Prob a good indication of convection in the defo band.  It's going to be a wild day for you NE folks!  Snow will be falling sideways...most likely it will be those fatty wet flakes sticking to everything in site.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111112/nam4km_asnow_ncus_9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted

Here in Grand Rapids once again we had a hard freeze and I had a low of 27° (30° at the airport) Now for the potential storm. The local forecast is calling for winds gust to top out at around 55 MPH inland and 60 or better at the lake shore.   We shall see how that plays out. If that indeed is the way it plays out this would compare to the November 10th and 11th storm here in Grand Rapids when the top winds were reported at 55 MPH and to the 1975 storm when the top winds reached 56 MPH we shall see. and we will know by Friday. Right now its clear with calm winds and a temp of 48°

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

This storm dumped one of the heaviest November snowfalls in Reno, NV.  In fact, 4 inches fell in one hour!  Impressive...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/10/reno-nevada-plastered-by-freak-heavy-snow-event/?postshare=9771447241723472

 

Lake Tahoe produce a lake effect snow band which created these intense snow fall rates.  Check out the radar imagery in the link above.  Pretty neat.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Calm before the storm?  Well with light winds and lots of sun (rare for west Michigan in late fall and winter) its been yet another great day here in Grand Rapids. Today with that sun the temps have reached the upper 50's (57 at the airport and 58 now at my house) and we are running +8.2° for the month. The mean here so far is now at 52.5° and the record warmest November here was 47.6° in 1931. The winter of 1931/32 was a very warm (by our standards) winter and there was only 41.1" of snow here and 25.3 of that fell in March of 1932. 

 

Oh those horrible 30's & 40's around SMI. Thankfully, we're not in that era. Solar gonna help us in a big way this winter. Have to love how chilly it's been despite the current "warm pattern". I too was surprised how temps dropped overnight in Marshall. Seriously frosty again when i stepped out this am. I see we were in the 20's for about 3 hrs. Like the new headline graphics. Cant wait till that's a Bliz Watch :lol:

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

15-20' Waves heading your way!  Lake Michigan will be rockin' tomorrow...wouldn't be surprised to some rogue waves topping 25'...

 

CTiX2rCU8AAx_8B.png

 

 

12z 4k-NAM still painting spotty heavier accumulations.  Prob a good indication of convection in the defo band.  It's going to be a wild day for you NE folks!  Snow will be falling sideways...most likely it will be those fatty wet flakes sticking to everything in site.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111112/nam4km_asnow_ncus_9.png

 

 

Good One! That's actually my poster name in another forum - LOL   (see above)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

Posted
Posted

Right now about 36 degrees.  I can hear pings on the window as some small hail is coming down with sheets of rain.  If you look closely outside, it looks like some sleet, mix, snow also falling.  Web cams in Western Nebraska are something with limited visibility and snowfall.  Even heard reports of Thundersnow west of North Platte towards Ogallala and Lake McConahay.  Schools continue to close early to my immediate north and west and many were already closed.  The snow line is getting ever so close to Central Nebraska.  

 

Looks like more chances coming in the weeks to come.  Maybe this will be the Plains year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Tornado Watch's hoisted for KC/SE NE/N MO/S IA...

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

TORNADO WATCH 534 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-071-073-075-
077-079-083-085-099-117-121-123-125-127-129-135-137-145-153-155-
157-159-165-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-120000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0534.151111T1720Z-151112T0000Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
FREMONT GREENE GRUNDY
GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN
HARRISON JASPER LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MARSHALL MILLS MONROE
MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK
POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
SHELBY STORY TAMA
TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO
WARREN WAYNE WEBSTER
$

 

 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1005 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...VERY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY
THEN MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM IOWA TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST...AND PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY.

IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-081>086-092>097-120015-
/O.CON.KDMX.WI.Y.0010.151112T0300Z-151113T0000Z/
BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-
MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-
RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKERSBURG...CLARKSVILLE...
SHELL ROCK...GREENE...APLINGTON...ALLISON...DUMONT...WAVERLY...
GRUNDY CENTER...REINBECK...CONRAD...DIKE...WELLSBURG...WATERLOO...
CEDAR FALLS...MARSHALLTOWN...TAMA...TOLEDO...TRAER...DYSART...
GLADBROOK...NEWTON...GRINNELL...PELLA...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...
CORNING...CRESTON...OSCEOLA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA...
BEDFORD...LENOX...NEW MARKET...MOUNT AYR...LAMONI...LEON...
CORYDON...SEYMOUR...ALLERTON...HUMESTON...CENTERVILLE...
BLOOMFIELD
1005 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING AND REACH EASTERN IOWA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS...ESPECIALLY
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH SOUTH ROADS. LOOSE OBJECTS WILL
ALSO BE BLOWN AROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Severe Storm heading NE right towards Omaha....

 

evere Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NEC131-111830-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0258.151111T1759Z-151111T1830Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1159 AM CST WED NOV 11 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN OTOE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1159 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DOUGLAS...
OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SYRACUSE...PALMYRA...UNADILLA AND DOUGLAS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Tornado warning....

 

A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST FOR

NORTHWESTERN OTOE COUNTY...

AT 1219 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER UNADILLA...OR 25 MILES EAST OF LINCOLN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Experienced

gabel23

Posted
Posted

I'm now included in the WWA!! Should be an interesting commute home tonight after school.....

 

STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...

YORK...SUTTON...HARVARD...CLAY CENTER...EDGAR...FAIRFIELD...
GENEVA...EXETER...FAIRMONT...FRANKLIN...HILDRETH
122 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

* IMPACT...A PERIOD OF SNOW COMBINED WITH INTENSE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY THAT AT TIMES COULD FALL BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE...MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
BANDS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EXPECT SOME VARIABILITY IN
SNOW AMOUNTS.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST-
TO-EAST...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN
SNOW BAND SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE ADVISORY AREA
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.

* UNCERTAINTY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW. IF TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL MORE AS RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. IF COLDER TEMPERATURES
OF 32 DEGREES OR COLDER ARE REALIZED...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY
SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ALL DAY WITH SPEEDS
OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 MPH...AND SOME GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted

Here in west Michigan its yet another sunny and warm (for November) day.  I now have a temp of 64° and the 2 PM reading at GRR was 62°  and this was after a frosty low of 30 at GRR and 27 here at my house.  Note the average high here for today is just 50°. now here is the latest write up from the NWS GRR for the upcoming system

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/grr/webinars/20151111_Nov12_13_2015_Fall_Storm_Webinar.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites
westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted

Here is the latest zone forecast for Grand Rapids. Note its now sunny and 63 here at my house.

 

SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN ZONE FORECAST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
329 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015  
 
MIZ057-120915-  
KENT-  
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GRAND RAPIDS  
329 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015  
 
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST  
FRIDAY...  
   
TONIGHT  
WINDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE  
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. LOWS IN THE  
MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH  
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.   
THURSDAY...VERY WINDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDDAY  
THEN A  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH BECOMING  
WEST 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.    
THURSDAY NIGHT  
WINDY. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.    
FRIDAY  
WINDY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.  
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.    
FRIDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES  
OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP  
TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...