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2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter


Tom

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Just based on trends, this storm isn't cutting NW even though there is no snow on OTG.  Similar storm track as the GHD storm should produce similar results.  The Upper MW HP is growing stronger per the GEFS...-EPO is the driving force...

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0z Euro start to baby step towards the GFS/GEFS...which is leading the pack in the post Day 5 range...prolific moisture available for FEB standards...

 

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JB wrote yesterday about how the AO isn't the beast in driving the weather pattern that is use to be, due to a warmer planet and warmer oceans.  He said the EPO is a bigger player now.  I guess this will kinda put that to the test the 0z GEFS looks like the GHD storm, I hope it continues to get colder!

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I still would not rule a N shift out - and not just a 25-50 mile one. I mean significant.  Flowers yday did a video basically explaining tips and tricks he uses at long range and seeing if said model is making sense with itself. He was using the nose of the dry air at 500mb that most times is just S of the surface low and was kind of hinting (at least the way I took it) that Southward trends may be the outliers. Since 06Z and 18Z don't use upper air (at least updated soundings), it's typical for them to do what they are doing and if we don't see a South tick with todays 12Z runs (an adjustment from 06Z) I would bet this thing is trending hard to the N. Hope I'am wrong, but at least I laid a few reasons why I think so.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just like the previous 2 cycles there will be a nasty severe weather component to this system.  The SPC in day 7 seems to be targeting the same areas that were hit back in Dec with deadly tornadoes.  I have no idea what type of precip I will get but this will be a fascinating storm.

Day 6

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 Day 7day7prob.gif

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32 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Is it wrong that I'm wishing for this to cut hard north and just give me rain?  I love snowstorms as much as anyone here, but I've got spring fever.  

After this storm, I got my eyes set on warm weather also…I feel ya!

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Just now, Tom said:

After this storm, I got my eyes set on warm weather also…I feel ya!

Normally I'd be giddy about a potential snowstorm.  But it's been cold and not a fun winter.  My twin boys just turned 3 and we have a huge backyard and they got a bunch of new toys to play with outside!  

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Models had Iowa getting clobbered 5-6 days before the last storm, but we got nothing.  We'll have a better idea by Sunday.

I wish someone would develop a more accurate ratio formula that takes everything into account, including wind.  For this upcoming storm, 10:1 is probably more accurate.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I can already envision this thing shifting north though.  Precip starting to break out at around hour 123.  Maybe in 24 hours, the track will get more firmed up.  I would think if it's gonna make a big jump it will do so in the next 24 hours.  The Euro usually doesn't have drastic shifts inside 120 hours (I'm talking hundreds of miles).  But I could definitely see this southern edge shift north into northern Iowa.  

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So far this is an unusual system to follow, not in the extreme amounts of precip modeled, but in how the thickness vaules on the N edge hit a serious brick wall and than retreat S with the CAA. It's usually a much warmer solution( especially with Gulf warmth/moisture advecting in )  once you get S of the 540 line here in C.IA which usually ='s a rainer. Don't wanna be on the N edge of this as the dry/cold air is going to produce serious cutoffs.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models had Iowa getting clobbered 5-6 days before the last storm, but we got nothing.  We'll have a better idea by Sunday.

I wish someone would develop a more accurate ratio formula that takes everything into account, including wind.  For this upcoming storm, 10:1 is probably more accurate.

I don't even click on kuchera anymore.  Its a ridiculous method in most storms.

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13 minutes ago, gosaints said:

I don't even click on kuchera anymore.  Its a ridiculous method in most storms.

I'm surprised that especially on premium sites, a user can't define what they want the ratio to be.  So I could go in and change it to 12:1 for example.  You would think that would be easy to setup.  

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BIG STORM in the Plains. We talked how the cycling pattern that produce this same storm On OCT. 9th-12th in cycle one, Dec. 8th-12th in cycle 2 and now Feb. 15th to 18th. 

 

Should be another big storm in the Plains one week after this one around Feb. 23rd to Feb 26th. Likely a 3rd big storm in the Plains towards March 1st-4th

This storm looks very similar to cycle 2 where there was  a lot of warmth out in front of it, severe weather, and a wintry side. Lots of moisture on all 3 storms. 

The  12z GFS actually I believe showed a blizzard on the NW side. 

5-6 days out, who gets blasted??

 

Edited by MIKEKC
missed some info
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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

FWIW, the UK is also suppressed.

It doesn't look that bad actually....SLP develops near the TX Panhandle and then tracks just SE of KC with cold air pressing....looks like a good run if it went out farther.

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6 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

But look at the total QPF.  If you're in Iowa/Nebraska, that looks suppressed.  Even KC is on the NW edge of the heavier precip. 

True, but that can be figured out in future runs...I like this run bc of two reasons: #1: It doesn't cutoff the the energy in the SW #2) It takes a good track for our region.  Phasing, Timing, etc will be figured out in the coming days but the idea is there for the energy to come out all at once and not sheared out crap.

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2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I hear ya.  And I don't buy any specific solution this far out.  I'll admit that I'm still worried this could end up south of KC. Feel very snake bit from the last one.  Check out this dry air at 144 hours.  

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The AO and NAO should keep that from happening.  I worry more about it going the other way.

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

So for the LRC followers,, does this storm correlate with the Dec 15th storm that had the crazy tornado outbreak?

Apparently this storm is actually correlating to the "wet cycle" storm cycle that occurred back in October. Even though we had the tornado outbreak and a big line of storms with snow on the backside of the December storm, that was part of the dry cycle LRC cycle every other cycle cycle... cycle.

 

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18 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Apparently this storm is actually correlating to the "wet cycle" storm cycle that occurred back in October. Even though we had the tornado outbreak and a big line of storms with snow on the backside of the December storm, that was part of the dry cycle LRC cycle every other cycle cycle... cycle.

 

And the fact that a severe weather outbreak has happened in both previous cycles has my attention.  As we move into mid/late April this will likely impact both Omaha and KC.  Might be a good time for a chase!

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